Haydock 03/07/08

[billy the punter]

1.40

Quite an ordinary race, no surprise given that it's a fillies only class 5.

It wasn't a great race that Eventide won FTO but she did it in style and the 2nd had previously run well in a fair maiden at GL. The 4th, who may've flopped first time on the dirt, also had some decent maiden form prior.

The handicapper has given her a mark of 68 and I think there is evey chance she can go close of that mark in her next couple of runs.

I think it was my 2nd or 3rd post ever on here that stated that Sphere (before her debut) will be interesting in middle distance handicaps later in the year.

On that 1st run she was a staying on 3rd over 10f, beaten 6l. The 2nd, 4th and 5th all won soon after. The winner is rated 108, the 2nd is rated 77, the 5th is also rated in the 70s.

She disappointed on her next start and was 8th to Criterion, the race was ok though and the first four home are all mid 70+ horses.

She wasn't disgraced when back to 10f on her last start in what looks like a decent A/W maiden. The winner is highly regarded and run well in the Ribblesdale.

Her mark of 68 is very fair based on the above. I'm sure she can win races off this mark although I really struggle with the yard. That is my major worry - they are very difficult to catch.

Kolakairi ran ok in weak handicaps and I thought he would've won a small race by now off his mark. He can be included on the run behind Precision Break.

Sphere 55% of stake 5.1 betfair
Eventide 30% of stake 9.2 betfair
Kalokairi 15% of stake 8.2 betfair

Plus combos

[Spooner]

14:40 - Lethal 20/1 (William Hill) 2.5pts e/w (1,2,3,4 1/4)

A tricky handicap install here and I have taken Lethal at a big price to run a big race. Fahey has been in good form over the last few days having only 2 runners out of 11 out of the frame. Although stepping up from a class 6 to 4. Lethal has showed some good form at this level and above, Hopefully he can reproduce some of that form and take this tricky race to solve.

[Trotter]

2.40 Haydock - Makshoof

Class 4 sprint handicap - this fellow has run in four similar races this season and has been getting closer each time, beaten (in round figures) 8L, 6L, 3L, 2L...........he's getting nearer the front with each race !

Has dropped a few pounds with each run and down another 2 lbs today, now 6 lbs lower mark than his last win but not necessarily in decline,

Good draw, low to middle..........should be plenty of pace around with 17 runners * and he can race prominantly but not exposed at the front.

Top rated by Massey and Postdata..........that'll probably scupper the price............but showing at 10/1 in the RP forecast

The clincher is his course form........2 runs, 2 wins, both over 6 furlongs in double-figure fields.

* obviously there'll be at least 2 non-runners.......


At race time I'll be in the dentists chair................

[Carl]

EVENTIDE 1.40 Haydock
Connections single runner of the day here and she landed a big price in her only previous run over a mile and a half LTO.
Ran green shes open to plenty of improvment on what appears to be a decent mark. 5/1

plus I dont trust Spencer at the best of times.

[Falbrav]

2.40 Haydock. John Keats. Lay. Racing Post SP 4/1.

In decent recent form, but at the weights will need a repeat of at least his recent best, so bearing that in mind and seeing he has a tricky draw out wide to work from and the possibility of a bit of rain soften the ground to make it less than ideal, then the 4/1 does appear quite skinny. Can win, but much more a lay than a play at 4/1 irrespective of the end result.

[Carl]

John Keats 2.40 Haydock

I know he faces a tough challenge under top weight but in his current mood and the fact that connections have put him out again so quickly I think he's worth chancing.
Balakiref has slipped down to a winable mark but I dont think conditions will suit.

[TheRat]

4.40 - Pass the Port EW (9/2 Willhill, 1/5 odds 3 to place)
Nice little EW this. Only one favourite has won this in last 7, but there have not really been many big priced winners either (one 14/1). Used to be an AW horse has switched to turf and has taken to it well, winning twice this season, and has only not placed once (4th). Ran a good race LTO before being disqualified over a weight issue anyway. Seems to still be on a winnable mark. Trip ideal and so is ground. Jock is 1/1 on horse and 2/2 with trainer. Will like a good gallop and should get it from Stringsofmyheart.

[billy the punter]

3.10 (Class 3)

Master Of Arts is a typical Mark Prescott improver, he is never going to be value and sure to be beaten at a short price at least once very soon. If it's your thing to back this sort of horse then fine - you would be in front on this particular animal for sure. However it isn't my style and although I was wrong to take him on LTO and can't jump on the bandwagon now and again I'm looking for value elsewhere.

Axiom looked decent last year for Ed Dunlop and I expect him to improve this year as he is now trained by Luca Cumani. I have different opinion regarding the two trainers shall we say.

I backed him for his intended seasonal debut but there was a problem in the stalls and he was withdrawn.

I missed him for his actual seasonal debut as I had a good day (Oaks Day) and didn't want to get involved in the night racing backing a horse FTO. He won obviously. Always the way.

A 7lb rise for that win but I've always thought he has the potential to make light of this sort of mark.

I'm hoping the showers come at Haydock as that will increase his chances.

Axiom 100% of stake 4.5 betfair

[fintron]

1.40

• Prelude has been running well in better races than this over the trip and won off her current mark of 66 last Aug. However, her best form appears to be saved for Chester.
• Eventide won well at Lingfield on his debut, scoring by 2.5 l from Heart of Dubai, but is up in class here and makes his turf debut. The form of that Lingfield maiden didn't look anything special - 3rd and 5th have both run since and both were unplaced.
• Sphere turns to handicapping here after three unplaced efforts in maiden races. Starts off on 65 here. Hard to tell how good the form of her latest Lingfield run is. 2nd, Siyasa has finished 2nd in two subsequent maiden races and 1st, Elmaleeha, finished 5th of 9 in a Group 2 race at Ascot (didn't get a clear run on the rail 2f out). None of the others that have run did anything out of the ordinary.
• Shenandoah Girl has won a couple of races over 12f in her career, but they came in a claimer and a classified stakes race. They best she has managed in handicap company was a 4.5 length 3rd at Brighton, LTO, off 56 and even though she's down 3 lb's here, she is up in grade so must find quite a bit more.

Because she drops down in grade and IMO offers better value than the others at the price, I'm backing Prelude here (10/1 Lads). Her best form has come elsewhere but dropping down from class 3 (where she ran well enough) into class 5 she must have a good E/W chance.

[Marco29]

Axion not placed ..

[Spooner]

Originally Posted by Trotter

2.40 Haydock - Makshoof

Class 4 sprint handicap - this fellow has run in four similar races this season and has been getting closer each time, beaten (in round figures) 8L, 6L, 3L, 2L...........he's getting nearer the front with each race !

Has dropped a few pounds with each run and down another 2 lbs today, now 6 lbs lower mark than his last win but not necessarily in decline,

Good draw, low to middle..........should be plenty of pace around with 17 runners * and he can race prominantly but not exposed at the front.

Top rated by Massey and Postdata..........that'll probably scupper the price............but showing at 10/1 in the RP forecast

The clincher is his course form........2 runs, 2 wins, both over 6 furlongs in double-figure fields.

* obviously there'll be at least 2 non-runners.......


At race time I'll be in the dentists chair................