Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

[Gingertipster]

Back sooner than I thought.

5:10 Goodwood
£57 @ 5/1 Councellor (22% 7/2)
£14 @ 22/1 Blue Charm (7% 14/1)
£12 @ 6.6/1 Rydal Mount (15% 11/2)

Councellor has been in good form on the AW recently. Runs off a much lower mark on turf. Even on last seasons turf form can go close and may be able to improve on that. Would've liked it to be a mile but is capable of making his own running. The other most likely to be up there is Rydal Mount. Quinnie takes over from a 7lb claimer. Not the most reliable but ran well last time and stable in good form.
Blue Charm is not in great form (most of which is on the AW) but trainer is in much better form now. Has not had much racing so could yet improve. At around 22/1 (have taken bigger) worth taking the chance.

[billy the punter]

Nice few days Ginge. I've hardly played this week.

What do you make of the last at Goodwood yesterday? Very odd, so many runners failed to run any sort of a race. Murrin, Formax, Northern Spy, Emperor Court all filling last five spots.

Even the Balding thing that come there pulling a cart two out failed to make the frame.

Silly b*ll*cks Drowne went off far too quick. The first four home all tracked the leader.

I can't remember the last time I didn't have even a sniff of a shout inside the last.

[Gingertipster]

4:35 Goodwood
£57 @ 5.4/1 My Aunt Fanny (22% 7/2)
£14 @ 4.2/1 Madame Hoi (23% 100/30)

4:00 Goodwood
£22 @ 9/1 (Fred Done) Celtic Dragon (12% 15/2)

[Gingertipster]

Have worked out the 3:25 Goodwood but a lot will depend on paddock inspection. The three I am interested in are The Jobber, Safari Mischief and Woodcote.
The Jobber comes from a small yard which has a poor record first time out, but is in good form at present. Want to see if he is fit.
Woodcote often spoils his chance by playing up / slowly away so want to see what mood he is in.
Safari Mischief would be the one if the other two are negatives (at current prices).

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

4:00 looks an interesting race with plenty of possible improvers. Trianon was running on really well in a slowly run 10f race at Salisbury (front runner nicked it). Should be suited by the extra furlong. However, there does not look much pace on here with Top Ticket (possibly most exposed) the only prominent runner I can see. Summer Winds was in front of Trianon last time but is not as likely to be suited by the extra furlong (if pace is good). Forget It has his first run in a handicap and could improve, though has been held up and again may not be suited by a slow pace. Shaama Rose could yet improve too though has to. Difficult to see Funseeker winning for his new yard after running so poorly last time (feb).
Celtic Dragon was disappointing on reappearance (well backed) but that was on soft ground and sire Fantastic Light wanted a sound surface. Looked capable of better at the end of his two year old campaign. Worth taking a chance with at the price.

4:35
Good maiden this, will be worth keeping an eye on.
Madame Hoi sets the standard with placed form in listed races, albeit slightly suspect. Eased last time after being hampered.
Quirina may well improve at the trip but that seems to have been already factored in to the price. Too short.
Main bet is My Aunt Fanny, for the in form Andrew Balding team. Has only raced on polytrack / soft so far but is by Nayef. Fourth in a conditions event at Ascot on reappearance. Can improve again stepped up in trip.
Casilda and Finmore Queen are others who are interesting.

[Gingertipster]

Another good day at the office .

When you're on fire you're on fire!

Ginge

[fintron]

4:00 Goodwood
£22 @ 9/1 (Fred Done) Celtic Dragon (12% 15/2)[/quote]

Great Shout. Won at 10's in the end

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by fintron

4:00 Goodwood
£22 @ 9/1 (Fred Done) Celtic Dragon (12% 15/2)

Great Shout. Won at 10's in the end [/quote]

I took 12/1 the night before. Was forced to put the bet up before other bookies were on, scrabbling around getting ready to go to Goodwood. Even wrote it down wrong. As it was my only bet in the race should've been £22 each way. £26 is my normal win bet for one I believe a 12% chance.

[Gingertipster]

Sorry I'm a bit late,

2:50 Newmarket
£22 @ 12/1 Tasdeer (10% 9/1)
£56 @ 4/1 Stimulation (23% 100/30)

3:35 Haydock
£27 @ 8/1 Borderlescott (11.5% 15/2)
£43 @ 3/1 Dandy Man (28.5% 5/2)

[Gingertipster]

2:50
Have always liked Stimulation, don't we all? Since I saw him on debut at Newbury. A breeding / paddock judge I know told me Stimulation was the best looking two year old he'd seen last year. Backed him for the Guineas but disappointed there. At 4/1, I'll give him another chance, his class should see him through. Hoping it will be a better pace than the Free Handicap. Think he is better than even that race suggests, held up in a slowly run race against speedier types. With Bobs Surprise, Calming Influence and Luck Money they should go fast enough.
Of those three... Bobs Surprise was probably flattered by getting a very soft lead in the Greenham (2nd) more a sprinter. Better behaved that day and anyone who wants to back him should wait to see his demeanor paddockside. Calming Influence won his only start impressively and "could be anything", however, I was surprised he was not mentioned in Godolphin's 2000 Guineas plans (a negative), and their three year olds are wanting a run. Luck money I liked last term, has scope for improvement. In the spring was the shortest priced of Paul Cole's Guineas trio (River Proud and Moynahan the others). With other possible pace setters is just too short in the market today.
Tasdeer is progressive and won quite easily last time. Has a good turn of foot. Second to subsequant Greenham winner Paco Boy penultimate start. Extremely well bred, by Rahy out of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Mehthaaf (one of the best families in the stud book). Unproven on a firm surface, ran poorly final start on it but worth taking the chance at the price.

[Gingertipster]

Borderlescott has unfashionable connections and as such tends to be a value price when taking on southerners. Showed he might be able to improve again this season with an impressive win on reappearance (5f soft). Has the benefit of a run over his main rivals. Equally effective at 5f or 6f, his record in the Stewards Cup suggests he has enough speed for this.
Dandy Man has his first run for Godolphin (was with Miss T. Collins). If able to improve him slightly may be capable of winning in top company this term. Loves a sound surface and races prominently. Godolphin's older horses are in better form than their three year olds.
Fleeting Spirit beat Kingsgate Native and Captain Gerrard in the Molecomb then a good second to Natagora, a long way clear of the third. However, she is only small and may not train on. Comes from an excellant stable.
Off The Record and Fullandby were 1st and 3rd in a top handicap last time. Both could improve again. The former is another front runner who will find it more difficult to dominate his field here. Fullandby may struggle for pace.
Enticing ran well on reappearance but goes very well fresh. May get the race run to suit today but does not find much under pressure. Only just stays 5f.
Tax Free is at his very best on an easy surface.
Both selections are usually prominent runners but do not have to lead.

[Gingertipster]

Ante-post Derby

£27 @ 10/1 Tajaaweed (11.5% 15/2)

Hurry, it won't be there long (Betfair) after Unnefer's win franking the form.

[Gingertipster]

Have also had a couple of quid on New Approach at 47/1, now down to 24/1.

[Gingertipster]

Profit /Loss

May 3rd
2:45 Newmarket
£60 @ 5/1 Harvest Queen 2^nd
£33 @ 15/8 Heaven Sent 1^st Return £94.88
cp 51.5% 20/21
cs £93
£1.88 Profit

2000 Guineas Newmarket
£30 @ 12/1 (ante-post) Raven's Pass 4^th
£15 @ 23/1 Stimulation
£2 @ 84/1 Moynahan
£10 @ 5/1 Ibn Khaldun
cp 29.8% (9/4)
-£57 Deficit

Days Stakes £150, Days Return £94.88, Days Deficit £55.12

May 4^th
2:40 Newmarket
£17 @ 18.5/1 Gower Song
£5 @ 23/1 Gower Song
£57 @ 9/2 Galactic Star 3^rd
£20 @ 4.2/1 Sixties Icon 2^nd
cp 42.4% 11/8
-£99 Deficit

1000 Guineas Newmarket
£25 @ 16/1 (ante-post) Sense Of Joy
£8 @ 25/1 (ante-post) Sense Of Joy
£20 @ 11/1 Savethisdanceforme
£5 @ 12/1 Savethisdanceforme
£20 @ 3/1 Natagora 1^st Return £80.00
cp 38.4% 13/8
cs £78
£2 Profit

3:55 Newmarket
£44 @ 6/1 Enticing 3^rd
£22 @ 2/1 Sakhee's Secret 2^nd
£5 @ 20/1 Rowe Park
cp 47.6% 10/11
-£73 Deficit

Days Stakes £250, Days Return £80.00, Days Deficit -£170.00

May 7^th
2:15 Chester
£70 @ 3.4/1 Laughter
£20 @ 6.2/1 Queen Of Naples
£5 @ 7.2/1 Queen Of Naples 4^th
cp 36.2% 7/4
-£95 Deficit

2:45 Chester
£16 @ 19/1 Missoula
£3 @ 27/1 Missoula
£20 @ 13.5/1 Black Rock
£2 @ 28/1 Shipmaster
£5 @ 11/1 Tilt 3^rd
£10 @ 4.3/1 Highland legacy
cp 42.2% 11/8
-£53 Deficit

Days Stakes £148, Days Return £00, Days Deficit £148.00

May 8^th
4:10 Goodwood
£50 @ 5/1 Badalano 2^nd
£10 @ 8/1 Maraasi
£15 @ 4.2/1 Albaraari
cp 47% 11/10
-£75 Deficit

4:45 Goodwood
£66 @ 4/1 Manyriverstocross 4th
£6 @ 49/1 Everybody Knows
cp 22% 7/2
-£72 Deficit

Days stakes £147, Days Return £00, Days Deficit £147.00
Total Staked £1237, Total Return £1516.38, Total Profit £279.38 (22.6%)
Strike Rate 7/18 (38.8%)

May 14^th
1:40 York
£44 @ 5.8/1 Tastahil 2^nd
£11 @ 4.2/1 King Charles
cp 33.9% 2/1
-£55 Deficit

2:40 York
£100 @ 3.4/1 Lush Lashes 1^st Return £440.00
£28 @ 3.7/1 Dar Re Me 3^rd
cp 44% 5/4
cs £128
£312 Profit

3:10 York
£28 @ 15/1 Utmost Respect
£20 @ 16/1 Prime Defender
£20 @ 8/1 Assertive 1^st Return £180.00
£6 @ 12/1 Hoh Mike
cp 30.9% 9/4
cs £74
£106 Profit

Days Stakes £257, Days Return £620.00, Days Profit £363.00

May 15^th
1:40 York
£25 each way @ 10/1 Special Day
£10 @ 7.4/1 Green Park
cp 21% 4/1
-£50 deficit

2:40 York
£25 @ 0.7/1 Twice Over 3^rd
£17 @ 13.5/1 McCartney
cp 65.7% 8/15
-£42 Deficit

3:10 York
£20 each way @ 8/1 Mia's Boy 1^st Return £240:00
£20 @ 9/1 Annemasse
cp 21.1% 4/1
cs £60
£180 Profit

Days Stakes £152, Days Return £240.00, Days Profit £88.00

May 16^th
2:20 Newbury
£40 @ 6.2/1 Skadarak 3^rd
£25 @ 1.68/1 Tajdeef 2^nd
cp 51.2% 20/21
-£65 Deficit

2:40 York
£72 @ 100/30 Royal And Regal 2^nd
£5 @ 18/1 Samuel 3^rd
cp 28.4% 5/2
-£77 Deficit

2:50 Newbury
£30 @ 11/1 Ada River
£18 @ 1.94/1 Kotsi 2^nd
cp 42.3% 11/8
-£48 Deficit

Days Stakes £190, Days Return £00, Days deficit £190.00

1:35 Newbury
£66 @ 3.7/1 Art Trend 4^th
21.3% 7/2
-£66 Deficit

2:10 Newbury
£72 @ 100/30 Tranquil Tiger 1^st Return £312.00
23.1%
£240 Profit

Lockinge Newbury
£44 @ 6/1 Creachadoir 1^st Return £308.00
£16 @ 16.5/1 Majestic Roi
£9 @ 45/1 Arabian Gleam
cp 22.2% 7/2
cs £69
£239 Profit

5:00 Newbury
£44 @ 11/2 Crazy About You
15.4%
-£44 Deficit

5:35 Newbury
£133 @ 1.9/1 Aqlaam 1^st Return £385.70
34.5%
£252.70 Profit

Days Stakes £384, Days Return £1005.70, Days Profit £621.70
Total Staked £2220, Total Return £3382.08 Total Profit £1162.08 (52.3%)
Strike Rate 13/32 (40.6%)

bit more to come to update

[Gingertipster]

May 21st
2:50 Goodwood
£57 @ 8.2/1 Top Lock 3^rd
£3 @ 20/1 Siberian tiger
cp 15.6% 11/2
-£60 Deficit

3:25 Goodwood
£50 @ 5/1 Hatton Flight (1st)
£10 @ 10/1 Hatton Flight 1^st Return £410.00
£13 @ 5.6/1 Royal Jasra
£10 @ 7.6/1 Potentaile 2^nd
cp 41.4% 11/8
cs £83
£327 Profit

4:00 Goodwood
£33 @ 7.2/1 Michita 1^st Return £270.60
£35 @ 4/1 Rossleen
cp 32.2% 85/40
cs £68
£202.60 Profit

5:45 Goodwood
£40 @ 7.4/1 Young Bertie 3^rd
£25 @ 7/1 Northern Spy
£17 @ 4/1 Formax
cp 44.4% 5/4
- £82 Deficit

Days Stakes £293, Days Return £680.60, Days Profit £387.60

May 22^nd
2:15 Goodwood
£50 @ 5.6/1 Rio Royale
£25 @ 6.2/1 Burning Flute
cp 29.1% 5/2
-£75 Deficit

2:50 Goodwood
£40 @ 6.4/1 Spice Route 3^rd
£16 @ 9/1 Sweet Lily 2^nd
cp 23.5% 100/30
-£56 Deficit

4:00 Goodwood
£22 @ 9/1 CelticDragon 1^st Return £220.00
10%
£198 Profit
(should have been £22 each way but can't be greedy)

4:35 Goodwood
£57 @ 5.4/1 My Aunt Fanny 3^rd
£14 @ 4.2/1 Madame Hoi 4^th
cp 34.8% 15/8
-£71 Deficit

5:10 Goodwood
£57 @ 5/1 Councellor 1^st Return £342.00
£14 @ 22/1 Blue Charm 3^rd
£12 @ 6.6/1 Rydal Mount
cp 34.2% 15/8
cs £83
£259 Profit

Days Stakes £307, Days Return £562.00, Days Profit £255.00

May 24^th
2:50 Newmarket
£22 @ 12/1 Tasdeer
£56 @ 4/1 Stimulation 2^nd
cp 27.7% 5/2
-£78 Deficit

3:35 Haydock
£27 @ 8/1 Borderlescott 2^nd
£43 @ 3/1 Dandy Man
cp 36.1% 7/4
-£70 Deficit

Days Stakes £148, Days Return £00, Days Deficit £148.00

Total Staked £2968, Total Return £4624.68, Total Profit £1656.68 (55.8%)
Strike Rate 17/43 (39.5%) Average price taken per race 1307.2% (30.4%) 9/4.
No. Horses Backed 93. Averqage priced runner 14.1% 6/1
Average priced individual winner 337.4% (19.8%) 4/1.

[Gingertipster]

O.k.
From now on I am upping stakes instead of betting to win £200 at my true odds, it is up to £250 for the main bet.

e.g. Was...
If I thought a horse had a 33% chance of winning. 33% = 2/1. I would need to put £100 on to win £200 at 2/1 so £100 was the bet on anything bigger than 2/1.

Now a 33% 2/1 chance will have £125 at bigger than 2/1. A 20% 4/1 shot was £50 now £63 etc. Although £150 will be the biggest bet per horse, £175 per race.

For those of you who want to gage how much your bet should be. My average bet in this thread per race is currently £69. I expect it to go up to at least £83 now.



Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Ante-Post
Ascot Gold Cup
£75 @ 9/2 (Bet Fred) Coastal Path (23% 100/30)

Yeats is getting on in years and there is no guarantee he is as good now. With him going for a third Gold Cup there are doubts surrounding the participation of stable companion Septimus (who I believe is the better horse).
Coastal Path has proven he is in form and on the up. Is by Halling (1m2f winner) but is a half brother to 2006 Gold Cup runner up Reefscape, by Linamix (miler / 1m2f). Coastal Path is already a winner at 2m (1m 7 1/2f) and should get the extra half mile.

Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

3:25 Goodwood
£50 @ 5/1 Hatton Flight
£10 @ 10/1 Hatton Flight 1^st Return £410.00
£13 @ 5.6/1 Royal Jasra
£10 @ 7.6/1 Potentaile 2^nd
cp 41.4% 11/8
cs £83
£327 Profit

Shouldn't this be £110 ?

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Shouldn't this be £110 ?

As you see Mileni I backed the horse twice, once having £50 @ 5/1, then when he went for a walk in the market £10 @ 10/1.
£10 @ 10/1 returns £110 yes, but £50 @ 5/1 returns £300, making a total return of £410.
Sorry for the confusion, I did not think it would go down well if I claimed two wins in one race.
Or can I claim two wins and a second?

Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Lol, sorry Ginge!! I completely missed that