Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

[Gingertipster]

2:40 Newmarket
Getaway is priced up on his performance in the Arc and possibly Fabre's record. However, came from rear in a strongly run race. All the principles came from well back. Essentially a stayer and may be flattered by that run. There is no absolute front runner in this field although some like to be in front or near it. Looks poor value at around 7/4, 15/8.


Sixties Icon ran well on reappearance in this race last season looking a potential top class horse. Then disappointed in subsequent races. Has had a breathing operation and if successful has a very good chance. Stable in excellent form and acts well on a sound surface.


Galactic Star is also from an in form yard (and adept at improving his older horses). Disappointed in the St Simon on good-soft final start last term, not looking an easy ride. Previously progressive and could continue that improvement. Seems good value today.


Gower Song was down the field on soft in a slowly run John Porter, returning from Dubai. That a race where nothing came from the back and probably unsuited by conditions. Seventh in the Sheema Classic (not much room) and won the City Of Gold before that (best run). Has more speed than most of these and acts well on a sound surface.


Malt Or Mash and Tranquil Tiger were also disappointing in the John Porter and are both expected to run much better here. The former is the more likely to improve, with more size about him than most of Hannons horses. Tranquil Tiger is from a stable in better form, well backed at Newbury so might be thought to have improved. Has at times shown temperament, not wanting to go to post once at Goodwood. Is a staying type who can front run.


Dragon Dancer placed in the Derby in his year but has a poor win / run ratio. Acts well on a firm surface. Can race prominently.


Yellowstone was a good horse for Aiden O'Brien but has been sold and not shown that form since. Not out of it if still capable.


3:55 Newmarket
Apparently Morrison is playing down Sakhee's Secret's chance today but he often does. Winner of his reappearance last term at this venue. Does have to give plenty of weight away to his rivals here and first run at 5f. Travels really well in his races and the trip should not be a problem. I believe he will be champion sprinter this year, built to and comes from a yard to improve this season. Best on this surface.


Zidane is another coming down in trip. Only just got up over the sharp 6f of Goodwood's Stewards Cup but also travels well at 6f. A rare first time up winner on reappearance this term and possibly has more improvement to come. Acts well on a firm surface.


Enticing has a little to find on the above two but has no doubt about having the speed for 5f. If anything barely stays 5f and the more conditions favour speed the better, held up. Also goes well fresh. Was over priced this morning.


Rowe Park is interesting, progressive last season for his small yard. If maintaining that improvement and fit, 20/1 could look generous. Similar remarks can be said about Judd Street.

[Gingertipster]

2:15 Chester
£70 @ 3.4/1 Laughter (27% 11/4)
£20 @ 6.2/1 Queen Of Naples (17% 5/1)

2:45 Chester
£16 @ 19/1 Missoula (8.5% 11/1)
£20 @ 13.5/1 Black Rock (9% 10/1)
£2 @ 28/1 Shipmaster (5% 20/1)
£5 @ 11/1 Tilt (10% 9/1)
£10 @ 4.3/1 Highland Legacy (22% 7/2)

[Gingertipster]

2:15 Chester
On form Laughter is not a value price but as I have backed her for the Oaks, if she can not win this she will struggle at Epsom. And if she is an Oaks winner, she can win this. Inexperienced for a race / track like this, hope she can handle it. Bound to improve for the run. However this does look a substandard Cheshire Oaks. Ran green but managed to win on debut at Leicester last year. Stables two year olds usually need their first outing (comparatively poor record) so that was encouraging . Sure to improve and should be suited by the step up in trip. Stoute is in excellent form.
Backed Sugar Mint a couple of times last season, now not convinced she is that straight forward. Although she has the best form is quite short in the market and others could improve past her.
Dancing Abbie won well on the all weather last time but the race was not up to much. Needs to improve but not out of the question.
Queen Of Naples also won her maiden on reappearance with a minimum of fuss. Thought good enough to run in the Marcel Boussac on second start. Then finding a slowly run mile against her in a listed race (started short priced favourite). By stamina influence Singspeil, from the family of Derby winner Oath, sure to improve for a step up in trip. Beginning to wonder if I made the right horse the saver. Stable not in as good a form as a few weeks back.
Sail is the other one with a realistic chance. 14/1 12^th of 18 on debut behind stable companion Highway to Heaven at two. Second at short odds on reappearance. Well bred, by Saddlers Wells and half sister to Hearthstead Maison. Should improve but needs to. Was backed at big prices for the Oaks yesterday.


2:45 Chester
Two horses take a big chunk out of the market here, Highland Legacy and Double Banded. Similar types, both were impressive on their reappearances, both were progressive last season, both should stay the trip, both well drawn. The former did win at Windsor at the start of his winning run but improvement has come on a soft surface, I would not want it to dry up too much. Stable still in cracking form. The latter has form on good-firm and good-soft. Stable not in quite the same form as a few weeks ago (when last run).
Black Rock is a progressive type, yet to run this season but does come from an in form yard. Not sure to get this trip (by Rock Of Gibraltar) but did stay 13 furlongs on very soft last season. Not well drawn but races prominently and with the exception of Shipmaster, most of those drawn below him are held up so might be able to get a fair early position.
Similar comments apply to Shipmaster, lightly raced, progressive, prominent runner from a poorish draw. Asking a lot to defy top weight but is a battler.
Fair Along ran well in this last year but has not looked as genuine as he has in the past over jumps this time around.
Greenwich Meentime won it last term but others are more open to improvement now and did lose his form late in the season.
Inchnadaph did not show enough promise on reappearance for me.
Backed Som Tala a few times last season including in this, without success. Sometimes struggles for pace, jockey booking (Dettori) is eye catching.
Full House has run well in big field handicaps but has not been in good form recently over jumps. His trainer is though and may look at his price again. Drawn on the inside rail.
Could give Tilt a chance, ran well on reappearance, 2^nd behind Double Banded. Do not make him the main bet because of a poor win / run ratio (often placed).
Missoula is the main bet. Very progressive last term when won here and at York for Mark Tomkins. Now has a first start for Miss Suzy Smith who is in great form. Acts on ground on a firm or soft side. Stays the trip well and fairly drawn. Around 20/1 is too big

[Gingertipster]

Can't resist
2:45 Chester
Another
£3 @ 27/1 Missoula

[Gingertipster]

Also
2:15 Chester
Another
£5 @ 7.2/1 Queen Of Naples

[Gingertipster]

Am going to Goodwood tomorrow and have worked out four races. Trouble is the liquidity for the "second" meeting is poor on the exchanges. I have backed a few but have had to take all the price available and their prices have tumbled since. So I don't feel able to put them up as "advices".

Have backed Badolana at 10/1 and 9/1, Crown Choice at 9/1, French Art 9/4 and Manyriverstocross at 5.6/1 and 5.4/1.

If they go back up to anywhere near those prices I suggest a bet.

Trouble is I won't have much time tomorrow to get on here.

[billy the punter]

I know, it's a joke. I've given up and going to try and get on in the morning.

Dropped you a line late last night about Goodwood this year - good luck there tomorrow, have a good day.

[Gingertipster]

4:10 Goodwood
£50 @ 5/1 Badolano (20% 4/1)
£10 @ 8/1 Marraasi (12.5% 7/1)
£15 @ 4.2/1 Albaraari (23% 100/30)

4:45 Goodwood
£66 @ 4/1 Manyriverstocross (25% 3/1)
£6 @ 59/1 Everybodyknows (3% 33/1)

Sorry no time for analysis.

[Gingertipster]

After a good start have had a few bad days "at the office" (Natagora aside), am going to have a few days off from betting. Evaluate whether I am doing anything wrong or if it's just the value hores have not been winning. Will also get the profit / loss on my threads up to date. Will be back for York.

Ginge

[BillyHills]

Keep going Ginge, the tide will turn mate!

[Gingertipster]

I'm not giving up Billy. Doubt if I am doing much or anything wrong but it is best to be safe than sorry. There are one or two I have been keeping an eye on for the Victoria Cup. So watch this space.

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

I am back, found I was not doing much wrong, possibly not taking enough notice of trainers in form, that is all. Managed to back the Victoria Cup winner while I was away (sorry aftertiming) did not get the very best price available but it was a lot better than SP.

So to York.
2:40
Despite having backed Dar Re Mi for the Oaks at 16/1, I find myself wondering why Lush Lashes is not favourite? I have her at 9/4 , Dar Re Mi 5/2 and Moonstone 7/2.

£100 @ 3.7/1 Lush Lashes (31% 9/4)

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

3:10 York
£28 @ 15/1 Utmost respect (12.5% 7/1)
£20 @ 16/1 Prime Defender (9.5% 10/1)
£20 @ 8/1 Assertive (12.5% 7/1)
£6 @ 12/1 Hoh Mike (9% 10/1)

[Gingertipster]

1:40 York
£44 @ 5.8/1 Tastahil (18% 9/2)
£11 @ 4.2/1 King Charles (22.5% 7/2)

[Gingertipster]

After I had finished the write up / bet on Lush Lashes, went back to Betfair and found she was down to 3.4/1 so will call it that price, not 3.7/1. as the latter was not available to PL members.

[Gingertipster]

2:40
As said Lush Lashes has the best form, improving, should improve for the trip, has form up to the standard of most Musidora wins and goes on the ground. The only negitive being, will she be over her exertions in the 1000.

Dar Re Mi might get a soft lead out in front but will have to set a good pace, with her two main rivals probably having more speed than her. Bred to come in to her own at 1 1/2 miles. Has abundant potential but has only won a maiden. Trainer not in such good form as when winning at Sandown.

Moonstone looks priced up on the trainer and reputation. Not even won a maiden yet, though 2nd in a decent one. Should be 3rd fav but not as close as she is in the market.

Cape Amber, sorry Peter, I think she is a mile filly. By Cape Cross who although got Ouiji Board is not really a stamina influence. Out of a mare from a sprinter miler background. Had an injury after her debut success.

Cruel Sea is the outsider I like. Again, not really bred for this. By Mizzen Mast, early days, but seems to give his stock more speed than stamina, and the dams side is usually best up to a mile. However, despite pulling hard Cruel Sea ran well enough in the Pretty Polly so may well stay this trip / improve if settling. From an in form yard which I went around at the Lambourn Open Day. This filly was the best looking 3 year old I saw. A stable lad I know says Barry Hills is confident she will get 1 1/2 miles.

[Gingertipster]

3:10
Backed Soldiers Tale at 20/1 in the Jubilee last year, due to the ground being (or rather going to be) soft. This looks too firm and I hope he does not run.

Assertive ran a very encouraging race in the Abernant. Fit and well, consistant. Not ridden by stable jockey as Ryan Moore keeps the ride. Not a negitive.

Beckermett is an interesting rank outsider, there does not look much pace in this race, unless Honoured Guest is used as a pace maker. Might get a soft lead at a track that favours prominent runners.

Hoh Mike comes from an in form yard, possibly has more improvement in him. But will need luck in running.

Prime Defender, on looks (from my visit) has improved this season but that is yet to be shown on form. Made fav but only 7th in the Abernant (2nd home on far side). May yet do better.

US Ranger I had down as a possible Champion sprinter this year. But he was very disappointing on reappearance. Not seeming to stride out with head held high. Stable was in poor form at time but there is a doubt in my mind on temperament. Very good looking individual who should be suited by this trip.

Utmost Respect seemed to improve on a soft surface last term but his 3rd at Newmarket (good-firm) was about his best up til then. Went on to win Silver Cup easily on good-soft. Excellant reappearance win (GS) and progressive. Over priced and can go close if handling the ground.

[Gingertipster]

Sorry, have not done 1:40 write up.

Ladies Best is possibly being brought along for Royal Ascot or Ebor.
Gulf Express ran poorly last time.
Supaseus seemed beaten on merit last time.
King Charles ran really well and looks likely to do better.
Impeller exposed.
Smart Instinct will probably need the run.
Capable Guest is inconsistant.
Mesbaah is yet to run to form for his new trainer.
Blue Spinnaker is interesting, improving on a soft surface this term but form on firmer further back.
Tastahil, from an in form yard, improved on reappearance on good-soft after injury. If still effective on todays surface can go close.
Fort Amhurst not good enough.

[Gingertipster]

Saver
£28 @ 3.7/1 Dar Re Mi

[Gingertipster]

That's a better day. 2 wins, 1 second.

With Betfair down am going to change tac tics.

1:40 York
£25 each way @ 10/1 (ladbrokes) Special Day (14.5% 6/1)