Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

[Gingertipster]

1:40 Newbury
£36 @ 7/1 Clowance (15% 11/2) 1st Return £288.00
price 12.5% 7/1
£252.00 Profit

3:15 Newbury
£57 @ 4.9/1 Mountain Pride
price 16.9% 5/1
- £57 Deficit

3:50 Newbury
£50 @ 5/1 (betfred) Burn The Breeze 1st Return £300.00
price 16.7% 5/1
£250.00 Profit

4:55 Newbury
£50 @ 5.4/1 Tighnabruaich (20% 4/1) 1st Return £320.00
price 16.7% 5/1
£270.00 Profit

Days Stakes £193
Days Return £908:00
Days Profit £715.00

[Gingertipster]

2:15 Newbury
£30 @ 7.8/1 Zaham 2nd (should've got the race in the stewards)
£30 @ 8/1 Tranquil Tiger
£10 @ 9.5/1 Ivy Creek
Combined price 32% 85/40
- £70 Deficit

3:25 Newbury
£22 @ 23/1 Don't Forget Faith (10.5% 17/2)
£12 @ 12.5/1 Lady Deauville (10.5% 17/2) 3rd
£20 @ 2.15/1 Muthabara (36.5% 7/4) 1st Return £63.00
Combined Price 43.3% 11/8
stakes £54
£9 Profit


4:00 Newbury
£20 @ 15.5/1 Shallal (9% 10/1)
£25 @ 6.8/1 Beacon Lodge (14.75% 6/1)
£26 @ 7/4 (Paddy Power) Confront (38.5% 13/8)
Combined Price 55.3% 5/6
-£71 Deficit

Days Stakes £195
Days Return £63.00
Days Deficit £132.00

[Gingertipster]

Total Stakes £542
Total Return £1341.50
Total Profit £799.50
Strike Rate 5wins / 9 races 55.6%

[Gingertipster]

Epsom Oaks

£20 @ 16/1 (Tote) Da Re Me (9% 10/1)

Very impressive today, could be a poor oaks this year.

[Gingertipster]

Should be Dar Re Mi.

By Singspeil out of Darara, Prix Vermaille winner who is a half sister to Darshaan

[Gingertipster]

2000 Guineas
Write ups followed by my price to beat on good ground.


Alfathaa Saw him win his maiden at Newbury, nice type, should make a better three year old. Backed it for the Royal Lodge, only 5^th just 1 ½ lengths behind City Leader. Was going to run in a trial but pulled out (I believe due to a slight setback. 1.75% 60/1

Bahamian Kid Should not be allowed to race. 16 lengths behind the winner in a Doncaster 7f soft ground maiden on debut. Next to no chance, won't take any price.

Dream Eater 3 ½ lengths 6^th to Dark Angel in the Middle Park. Does not look good enough. Bred to just about stay the trip but races as though won't. Sometimes takes a pull and seemed barely to get 7f as a juvenile. Yet to race on a soft surface. 0.5% 200/1

Fireside Has been backed in recent weeks. Trainer is usually good at identifying potential in his string. Form as yet does not add up to much. 6^th of 19 on debut in a hot Irish Sales race, before winning his maiden at Newmarket. By a miler (Dr Fong) out of a mare by another (Zafonic) so should stay. Both of those (I believe) were better on a sound surface, raced so far on good-firm. Evidently well thought of. 2.5% 40/1

Henrythenavigator Very well bred, won the Coventry coming from the back of the field on a firm surface. Then ran poorly on very soft going in the Phoenix Stakes, before running well enough to be 3^rd to New Approach and Curtain Call (some give underfoot). So has some good form but does look just short of top class. Difficult to see why he should reverse places with the favourite. Only the price he is due to who trains him (poor value) and might not want too much more rain. 5.75% 16/1

Ibn Khaldun Improvement came last year on good or softer although does have a decent action. Won a modest Racing Post after progressing quickly through the ranks. If improvement has been maintained will go close here, especially if the ground is on the soft side. Is rated by connections a better horse now than stable companions Fast Company and Rio De La Plata who were not beaten far by New Approach last year. 22.2% 7/2

Moynahan Impressed me in the paddock at Goodwood on debut, too green to win. Then won what is usually one of the best maidens around (the Moorestyle) at York. From a good mile family and by Johannesburg, should stay the trip. Has potential to improve (needs to) and is proffered to stable companions River Proud and Luck Money.2.5% 40/1

New Approach Has done nothing wrong in his races but has shown bits of temperament off it. Has a pony companion in the paddock and to post, once had to be backed (a la George Washington style) / refused to go under archways, has two handlers in the paddock. Said not to be going for the Derby, which may be because connections are worried about the prelims there. If so Newmarket could also be a concern. If backing him I suggest waiting as late as possible. Still unbeaten in five starts at two. Won the Dewhurst with the best 2 year olds (including Raven's Pass) behind. Impeccably bred. Front runner before tracked the pace on his final start. Winner on a firm and a soft surface. 28% 5/2

Perfect Stride Was going to run in a trial before taken out due to the ground being too soft, raced only on a sound surface to date. Not certain to stay on breeding, by Oasis Dream. Dam mile winner but related to mainly 7f horses. Won maiden then looked as if he would keep his unbeaten record but got collared by a late closer, in a Leicester minor event. Potential to improve and from an excellent stable but because of that is at a shorter price than form merits. 2.5% 40/1

Plan Exceptionally well bred, will stay, by Storm Cat out of a Breeders Cup winner. Impressive winner of his second of two starts in an ordinary maiden by 5 ½ lengths. Raced only on good. Needs to improve considerably but does have potential. O'Brien 2^nd string. 1% 100/1

Raven's Pass Said to be a doubtful stayer but only just lost out (by short head) to a “stayer” Twice Over on good going in the Craven, not under maximum pressure. Did travel well there as he did in the Dewhurst before finding little on what was thought unsuitable going (good-soft). Impressive winner of the Solario, by 7 lengths easing down to subsequent Royal Lodge winner / Racing Post 2^nd City Leader (on good-firm). Would not want much more rain and is probably best on a sound surface. Was last to post in the Craven, wore crossed nose band (trainers runners often do) and blanketed for stall entry. So may have a bit of temperament about him. If not on already, may be best to wait until the going is known. 23.2% 100/30

Scintillo Is a Group 1 winner (in Italy) but was well behind Raven's Pass in the Craven (9^th of 10) Stays a mile well and will be suited by as much rain as possible (test of stamina at the trip). Acts on a firm and a soft surface. Seems fully exposed. 0.25% 400/1

Stimulation will be much better suited by the mile here than a slowly run 7f of his reappearance (despite being by Choisir). Did well to get up on the line there to beat the well ridden Fat Boy. Would have won the Horris Hill with a clear run on his last two year old start. One of the best looking two year olds I saw and can improve again from his (still) under rated trainer. No going worries and should be in front of Henrythenavigator in the betting. 7.5% 13/1

Strike The Deal I saw win the Richmond from Fat Boy, not much of him and possibly the type to be best at two. Also 4^th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (1m) and 5^th UAE Derby, weakening (1m1f). Despite those runs gives the impression does not quite truly stay a mile. Proven on a firm and soft surface though the latter would put more emphasis on stamina. 2.25% 40/1

Stubbs Art Is a horse I like, as a handicapper. Progressive last year and is the sort to do better at three (substantial colt). Once again pulled too hard on reappearance, 5^th in the Esher Cup. Stays 1m2f and not beholden to the ground conditions. If he settles could improve but needs to significantly. Runs well at Newmarket. 0.1% 1000/1

[Gingertipster]

Carried over from last season. Already Advised.

2000 Guineas
£30 @ 12/1 (ante-post) Raven's Pass
If you have not backed it yet I still make it value (if on good ground) at anything bigger than 100/30.

More bets now.
£15 @ 23/1 Stimulation (7.5% 13/1)
£2 @ 84/1 Moynahan (2.5% 40/1)
£10 @ 5/1 Ibn Khaldun (22% 7/2)

[SteveO]

I think I'm going to dutch Ibn Khaldoun and New Approach. Great write up ginge on the Guineas.

[Gingertipster]

2:45 Newmarket
£60 @ 5/1 Harvest Queen (23% 100/30)

[Gingertipster]

2:45 Newmarket
This might be a difficult race to get right as there does not look to be a natural front runner. Passage Of Time probably needs a reasonable pace, being more a staying filly than her opponents. Might have to go on herself and if not may struggle. She won first time up in the Musidora last term and has the best form but not by much. Her price looks too short.
Heaven Sent ran really well on reappearance and M. Stoute usually improves his four year olds. Fitness advantage and has won slowly run races before. Stays the trip and acts on the ground.
Harvest Queen is another who has won slowly run races, coming from last to first in a listed race at Haydock. Raced more prominently for reappearance win last season at Goodwood. Saw her there and has a substantial frame, the sort who may improve again at four. Ran a great race in one of the best fillies races final start, close up 5^th in the Sun Chariot. All her good form is on a sound surface and the ground seems to have come right. Stays 1m well and may have more pace than her main rivals if it is a slowly run race (if fit). Represents good value at around 5/1.
Of the others Barshiba is not out of it on form, but is best held up in a strongly run race.
Cosmodrome has potential but has a deal to find.




Seen have not put in the saver.
£33 @ 15/8 Heaven Sent (38% 13/8)

[Gingertipster]

Might come back with a bet in the 3:40 Goodwood. Want to see the times (ground conditions) first.

[Gingertipster]

Duplicated

[Gingertipster]

£20 @ 11/1 (Skybet and Betfair) Savethisdanceforme (11% 8/1)

[Gingertipster]

Might go in again on Savethisdanceforme if the (on jockey bookings) 2nd string drifts. Or might make something else as the main bet.

[Gingertipster]

1000 Guineas
Have got a good price Natagora just after her trial but sorry time was tight and forgot to put it up here. Can not do so now for the main bet, most of the value has gone so just a saver.

Already advised
£25 @ 16/1 Sense Of Joy
£8 @ 25/1 Sense Of Joy

A further.
£5 @ 12/1 Savethisdanceforme
£20 @ 3/1 Natagora (27% 11/4)

[Gingertipster]

2:40 Newmarket
£17 @ 18.5/1 Gower Song (8% 12/1)
£57 @ 9/2 Galactic Star (22% 7/2)

[Gingertipster]

2:40 Newmarket
Can not resist another
£5 @ 23/1 Gower Song

3:55 Newmarket
Taking a bit of a risk with the weather here, hope it stays fine.

£44 @ 6/1 (B365) Enticing (18% 9/2)
£22 @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes) Sakhee's Secret (35% 15/8)

[Gingertipster]

2:40 Newmarket
Was writing down Sixties Icon, with a breathing op, but he is obviously well fancied (backed) from a stable in form. Think he deserves a saver.

£20 @ 4.2/1 Sixties Icon (22% 7/2)

[Gingertipster]

3:55 Newmarket
Another saver.
£5 @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Rowe Park (7% 14/1)

[Gingertipster]

1000 Guineas

Judging by Francesca d'Gorgio's run in the Cherry Hinton she likes to be on her own. A front runner (at sprint distances) drawn 1. I feel she is likely to make a B-line for the stand rail, drawing the pack over. Seems temperamental and probably won't stay.

Infallible was impressive in the Nell Gwyn but beat very little there. Still, “could be anything” and has an obvious chance. Inexperienced and has only had one crack with the whip. Although by sprinter Pivotal (who's progeny tend to stay further than he did), out of a sprinter, Infallible settles well and should stay a mile.

Kitty Matcham is impeccably bred (should get further). Won the Rockfel but the form has not worked out that well. 4^th in a maiden on good-firm, has improved on good and good-soft since, whether this is significant remains to be seen. Apparently stable first string on jockey bookings, I disagree.

Lady Deuville was not far behind Muthabara at Newbury but raced on the favoured side there. Should stay the trip (sire sprinter but from a maternal staying line) unlikely to be good enough.

Laureldean Gale's half length defeat by Proviso (when trained by Chapple-Hym.is some of the best form around. Would've been one of the favourites on that performance. However, got above herself before the Boussac. That is a worry here too and unlike Ibn Khaldun the stable don't seem keen on her chances. By sprinter-miler Grand Slam and is a half sister to a Musidora winner so should stay and acts well on a firm surface.

Lush Lashes won a sales race in Ireland on her only run last term (7f good-firm). Ran poorly when stable was out of form on heavy ground, pulling hard. If she settles and is better on today's surface should not be discounted. But by Galileo from the family of Arc winner Saumarez, bred to come in to her own over further. Inexperienced.

Max One Two Three is from a stable going places but I saw her at Salisbury last season and will be amazed if she stays the trip. Has potential to improve.

Nahoodh I saw run poorly in the Fred Darling. Looked poor in her coat , edgy in the paddock and stable in poor form at the time (now much better). Is a nice type, big sort with a good action, probably unsuited by the soft ground at Newbury too. Won the Lowther at 6f last term, is bred to get the trip but her temperament may not allow her to do so.

Natagora is by a Japanese sprinter-miler (grand sire Sunday Silence is a fair influence of stamina). Natagora's dam was best over middle distances, who was by miler Linamix. So on breeding the French horse should improve over a mile. On reappearance she settled very well tracking the pace at seven furlongs on heavy ground. Although showing plenty of speed at two I feel she is far more likely to stay a mile than not. Won the Chievely Park from Fleeting Spirit, clear of the rest. Has the best form in this race but most of the value has gone.

Royal Confidence was placed in the Free Handicap against the colts, behind Stimulation. Slowly run 7f, it played to her strengths. Both sire and dam are from sprinting families, unlikely to stay a mile.

Saoirse Abu beat Henrythenavigator and Listen at two but both O'Brien horses had valid excuses and is probably not as good as those performances suggest. Exposed and very disappointing on reappearance and may not have trained on. Raced only on with ease in the ground, stays a mile.

Savethisdanceforme was 5 lengths clear of the third when second on reappearance. Had gone clear before weakening in the final furlong (as if the race was needed). Stable was out of form at the time, now much better. Very progressive at two, 4^th in the Boussac before impressive 9 length winner of a listed race (on good-soft) final start. Deserted by Murtagh but has Ryan Moore as a deputy. I believe Johnny may have made the wrong choice if Savethisdanceforme acts on the ground (unraced on firm surface) and has the speed to lay up early, stays a mile well. Worth taking a chance at the price.

Spacious is a really nice type, taking after her sire Nayef. Has had only two runs winning the May Hill with an impressive turn of foot. Inexperience could be a problem, particularly with Fanshawe's appalling record with first time out three year olds. Held up and stays a mile well. If it is a slowly run race might struggle.

Spinning Lucy ran in the Nell Gwyn as if she struggles to stay 7f let alone a mile. Weakened after being up with the pace. Unless she can set a slow pace is very unlikely to get home. Not that she looks good enough.