Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

[AK1979]

Superb, what a price!

[Gingertipster]

With dense fog again ahere I am this morning decided not to go to Goodwood today so betting from home.

4:20 Goodwood
£70 @ 9/2 Pattavelian (23% 100/30)
£4 @ 28/1 Sir Edwin Landseer (5.25% 18/1)
May have one more saver later.

[Gingertipster]

Thanks AK, pity I did not have much on Conquest.

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Pattavellian has been dropped to a good mark. This years form this season has got progressively better. Does not need to be anywhere near his best of a few years ago here. With stable in the best form it has been in all year. 9/2 looks too big in a lesser contest than he's been racing in.

Sir Edwin Landseer has also dropped in the weights and could surprise a few today on a course he can run well at. Problem is he has quite a bit of temperament and sometimes loses it's race at the start. Hope he breaks o.k. Don't be a McCrirrick if you "fail to get a run fot your money". Being a monkey is factored in to his price. I just think it is worth taking a chance on.

Ginge

[Gingertipster]

£25 @ 7/2 Maimoona

[Gingertipster]

Dewhurst


RVW is very short for what he's done. The Bolger filly he beat last time was nowhere near form that day. O.K. he should be favourite, but I'd want better than 9/4 to back him.


My prices to beat (to 100%) and what my bookies price would be had I been an odds compiler (in brackets) to 122.8%:


Ashram 11/2 (9/2)
Delegator 13/1 (9/1)
Egypt 800/1 (200/1)
Finjaan 20/1 (14/1)
Galpin Junior 800/1 (200/1)
Huntdown 15/2 (6/1)
Intense Focus 25/1 (18/1)
Lord Shanakil 22/1 (16/1)
Ouqba 40/1 (28/1)
Prime Delivery No Price (1000/1)
Rip Van Winkle 9/4 (2/1)
Shaweel 17/2 (13/2)
Soul City 9/1 (15/2)


I make Huntdown, Shaweel and Soul City all value bets all at 12/1. Backed Huntdown as the main bet, Shaweel as a fair bet and Soul City as a saver.


Huntdown should on breeding improve at this trip and stable is flying.
Shaweel is improving and ran what was then thought to be O'Brien's best 2 yo, close last time. It is possible he may be better on softer ground but is worth taking a chance at the price. Stable in good form too.


Soul City may be able to let Egypt go and lead the others at his own pace. Would also have liked a little softer ground to be sure of a good run but is again worth taking a chance with at the price.



£33 @ 12/1 Huntdown (11.5% 15/2)
£25 @ 12/1 Shaweel (10.5% 17/2)
£7 @ 12/1 Soul City (10% 9/1)

[Gingertipster]

Todays system bets

2:05 Newmarket
18 points @ 11/2 Major Cadeaux (£45)
15 points @ 11/2 Stimulation (£45)
5 points @ 20/1 Royal Confidence (£5)
4 points @ 25/1 Duff (£4)
3 points @ 33/1 Balthazar's Gift (£3)

3:50 Newmarket
3 points each way @ 33/1 Mighty Moon (£8 each way)

[Gingertipster]

3:10 Newmarket
£20 @ 16/1 Traffic Guard
£30 @ 7.8/1 Pipedreamer
£50 @ 4/1 Russian Cross

[Gingertipster]

2:45 Newbury
£75 @ 6.8/1 Spanish Moon (23% 100/30)

[Gingertipster]

Yet again when there is a second string the bookies / public under estimate its chance by a long way.

My prices to beat:
Ask 5/4, Spanish Moon 100/30, Blue Monday 7/1, Buccaletti 11/1, Sell Out 22/1, Scintillo 25/1, Championship Point 50/1, Numide 400/1

I backed Ask for the Arc at a big price, but he is a stayer and there does not look much pace in the race tomorrow. Although Asks best form is on good or firmer he has a very rounded action that may be better on soft.

Blue Monday comes from a stable in form, stays well and acts on soft, but is unlikely to improve at the age of seven.

Championship Point may get a soft lead but is not in good enough form.

Buccelletti is intreresting, proven on soft and in form but should not quite be good enough.

Sell Out goes very well on a soft surface (rounded action) but again should not be good enough.

Scintillo may need a slowly run race to stay (like he had last time) but still might not do so in the ground.

Numide outclassed.

Spanish Moon has form on a soft surface and has form over shorter so should have more speed if it is slow. Good looking horse and still improving. His stable companion has a better chance but nowhere near what the betting suggests. Bets like this do not come along very often, should be half the current price. Get on!

[Gingertipster]

Todays System Bets


2:25 Doncaster
11 points @ 17/2 (Corals) Cheveton (£33)

9 points @ 10/1 (Bet Fred) Judge And Jury (£27)

8 points @ 14/1 (Corals) Kaldoun Kingdom (£24)

4 points @ 33/1 (Stan James) The Jobber (£12)



2:45 Newbury (I myself believe Spanish Moon is the value)
7 points each way @ 10/1 (VC) Buccelatti (£0)

5 points each way @ 16/1 (Hills) Sell Out (£0)

2 points each way @ 50/1 (generally) Championship Point (£2)



3:35 Doncaster
23 points @ 100/30 (generally) Masterofthehouse (£23)

22 points @ 7/2 (generally) Jukebox Jury (£50)

10 points @ 9/1 (Corals) Marching Time (£25)

[Gingertipster]

Actually, the £11 on Cheveton will not be counted in my thread as it is no longer available.

[Gingertipster]

Todays System Bets in USA.


6:10 Santa Anita
36 points @ 9/4 Sixties Icon (£96)

6 points @ 16/1 Muhannak (£6)



6:50 Santa Anita
17 points @ 6/1 Fleeting Spirit (£17)

18 points @ 13/2 Diabolical (£54)

13 @ 7/1 California Flag (£15)

11 @ 10/1 Get Funky (£33)

4 @ 16/1 Rouse The Cat (£6)

3 @ 25/1 Only Answer (£4)

2 @ 50/1 Storm Treasure (£2)



7:30 Santa Anita
35 @ 5/2 Well Armed (£87)
14 @ 6/1 Lewis Michael (£16)

8 @ 12/1 Mast Track (£9)

7 @ 14/1 My Pal Charlie (£7)

3 @ 22/1 Slew's Tiznow (£4)

2 @ 50/1 Slew's Tizzy (£2)



8:15 Santa Anita
33 @ 2/1 Goldicova (£66)

8 @ 12/1 Precious Kitten (£9)

8 @ 12/1 US Ranger (£0)

11 @ 12/1 Whatsthescript (£33)

2 @ 40/1 Bold Chieften (£3)



8:55 Santa Anita
26 @ 5/1 Square Eddie (£78)

17 @ 5/1 Street Hero (£20)

10 @ 9/1 Munnings (£11)

5 @ 20/1 Terrain (£5)

4@ 25/1 Silent Valor (£4)

2 @ 33/1 Azul Leon (£2)



9:35 Santa Anita (NO BET)


10:15 Santa Anita
22 @ 7/2 Street Boss (£25)

24 @ 5/1 Cost Of Freedom (£72)

17 @ 6/1 Fatal Bullit (£17)



11:00 Santa Anita
22 @ 9/2 Conduit (£66)

14 @ 6/1 Grand Courtier (£17)

17 @ 6/1 Eagle Mountain (£17)

15 @ 8/1 Red Rocks (£25)



11:45 Santa Anita
29 @ 5/2 Curlin (£25)

11 @ 10/1 Raven's Pass (£42)

11 @ 12/1 Duke Of Marmalade (£7)

10 @ 12/1 Colonel John (£7)

4 @ 33/1 Champs Elysees (£3)

[Gingertipster]

Duplicate Sorry

[Gingertipster]

Addition

Breeders Cup Classic
£20 @ 15/1 Henrythenavigator

[Gingertipster]

One system bet for the flat



3:55 Newmarket
25 points @ 3/1 (WH) Bankable (£31)

20 points @ 5/1 (L) Virtual (£60)

17 points @ 6/1 (BSQ) Alexandtos (£18)

5 points @ 20/1 (BSQ, T) Calming Influence (£15)

[Gingertipster]

Todays system bets

2:35 Doncaster
20 points @ 4/1 (generally) Chief Editor (£60)
1 point @ 150/1 (L) Sudden Impact (£2 ew)

3:45 Doncaster
10 points @ 9/1 Charm School (£30)
2 points ew @ 33/1 Ponty Rossa (£5ew)
3 points ew @ 40/1 Haajes (£4ew)
2 points ew @ 40/1 Wyatt Erp (£4ew)

Ginge