Gingers (Flat) Winners 08

[Gingertipster]

3:20 Sandown
£62 @ 5/1 (corals) Pipedreamer (20% 4/1)

Goes on the ground, stays the trip, improving fast. As long as there is a sound pace has an outstanding chance. Campanologist and Multidimentional will need a test at the trip so should be truly run.
Mount Nelson runs as though may be suited by the longer trip but is not bred for it. Unexposed, I have Mount Nelson, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer as my 4/1 co favourites.
Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are closely matched on their Ascot form. But Pipedreamer is the bigger price.
Multidimentional improved in the Hardwicke (at 1 1/2 miles) but had the run of the race. The shorter trip and with Campanologist to take him on, may be against him.
Campanologist was flattered last time, setting a slow pace and kicking off the turn in the King Ed. Will be harder for him coming back down in trip.
Literato has not been in the same form for Godolphin and is only small. May not have trained on. Possibly at his very best on good or softer.
Rob Roy has wisely been given a break, possibly best fresh but his temperament and form does not look good enough.
Maraahel's record in Group 1's is poor, often placed, never wins.
Stotsfold looks up against it in this company.

My prices to beat and bookies price (+ mark up).

Mount Nelson 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Pipedreamer 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Phoenix Tower 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Multidimentional 13% 13/2 (11/2), Campanologist 7.5% 13/1 (10/1), Maraahel 5.5% 18/1 (14/1), Literato 5.5% 18/1 (14/1), Rob Roy 3.5% 33/1 (22/1), Stotsfold 1.25% 80/1 (40/1).

[BillyHills]

My prices to beat and bookies price (+ mark up).

Mount Nelson 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Pipedreamer 21.25% 4/1 (100/30), Phoenix Tower 21.25% 4/1 (100/30),

Not sure I understand this Ginge, you say Pipedreamers price to beat and bookies price 4/1 (10/3) yet you got 5/1 at Corals.

I would have thought if you think 3 horses have the same chance of winning its a no bet race? Good luck anyway, braver than me.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by BillyHills

Not sure I understand this Ginge, you say Pipedreamers price to beat and bookies price 4/1 (10/3) yet you got 5/1 at Corals.

I would have thought if you think 3 horses have the same chance of winning its a no bet race? Good luck anyway, braver than me.

Billy,
I believe Mount Nelson, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer all have a 21.25% chance of winning the Eclipse. As 20% = 4/1 and 22% = 7/2 I have rounded down the figure and counted them as 4/1 chances. I want better than 4/1 to back any of those three horses.
As Pipedreamer is the only one of them available at bigger than 4/1 (5/1 with Corals) then Pipedreamer is the bet because I believe it is value at 5/1. Had the other two horses been 5/1 would've backed them too, but they aren't. Every horse has a price I would back them at, Pipedreamer at better than 4/1, even Stotsfold at better than 80/1 etc. You need to win better than 20% of your bets at 4/1 to make a profit, 1.25% at 80/1 (1.23456 to be exact).
The figure in brackets is my price to beat (in this case 4/1) plus a bookies mark up (in this case 2%) 21.25% + 2% = 23.25% = 100/30. So the 4/1 becomes 100/30. So if I were acting as a bookie I'd offer 100/30 about Pipedreamer to win the race, not as Corals are offering 5/1.

Ginge

[BillyHills]

Ok Ginge, cheers for that, it read like one was your price and the other was the available price at the bookies. My mistake.
4/1 the field at Paddys so you may get 9/2 the other two somewhere by racetime.

Must be easier races somewhere tomorrow to have a go at though

[Gingertipster]

3:00 Haydock
£63 @ 11/2 (Stan James) Ezima (20% 4/1)
£18 @ 7/2 Turbo Linn (25% 3/1)

[Gingertipster]

4:30 Sandown
£25 @ 10.5/1 Balken Knight (11% 8/1)
£23 @ 11.5/1 Raincoat (10.5% 17/2)
£18 @ 11/4 Samuel (30% 9/4)

[Gingertipster]

3:20 Sandown (additions)
£17 @ 4/1 Phoenix Tower (22.25% 7/2)

extra
£5 @ 5.6/1 Pipedreamer

[Gingertipster]

3:10 Newmarket
£55 @ 11/2 (William Hill) Heaven Sent (18% 9/2)
£20 @ 16/1 (blue square) Nahoodh (8% 12/1)

[Gingertipster]

Darjina is probably not at her best on soft going and has had travel problems.
Infallible may not stay a truly run mile on softish ground.
Something went wrong with Finscael Beo last time and this is her third race within a month. Last year her form deteriorated when running back quickly.
Heaven Sent probably would've been a good winner at Royal Ascot held on for a bit longer (off a strong pace). Progressive, seems to act on any going and can front run or be held up.
Nahoodh ran o.k. at Ascot but the trainer was in poor form at the time, now much better. Possibly also not able to quicken on the firm ground. Unproven on a soft surface but worth taking the chance at the price.

[Gingertipster]

2:35 Newmarket
£80 @ 100/30 (sportingbet, 3.2/1 on betfair) Lucky Leigh (27% 11/4)

[Gingertipster]

The going is not that testing (good) and the form horse is over priced at present. Heart Shaped is the obvious danger if ignoring her Ascot run.

[Gingertipster]

2:00 Newmarket
£62 @ 6.2/1 Classic Blade (20% 4/1)
£10 @ 7.6/1 Effort (14% 6/1)

[Gingertipster]

1:30 Newmarket
£27 @ 14.5/1 Hobby (10% 9/1)

[Gingertipster]

2:00 Newmarket (addition)
£27 @ 8/1 (sportingbet) Classic Blade

Bets like this don't come around that often. So have put a bigger than usual bet on.
Impressive at Salisbury on good-firm last time but won on good-soft before that. Has a markedly round action usually favoured by soft ground. Stamina might be a problem in the ground but may be able to get a soft lead. Improving and has much better form (at present) than the talking horse Sayif. Who is only that price through home reputation and the trainers winner in this last year.
Prolific is a danger, ran well at Ascot on firm. Will he be as good on soft? Got beat on good-soft. Running on at the Royal meeting and should benefit by an extra furlong.
Effort is interesting, Johnston was in poor form at Ascot yet Effort ran well, improvement looks likely and has run well on good-soft.

I expect Classic Blade to start around half his current price.

[Gingertipster]

1:30 Newmarket
With Hobby now a non-runner.
£40 each way @ 5/1 Enroller (25% 4/1)

[Gingertipster]

That was with Canbet.

[Gingertipster]

The 3:10 is a nightmare.

Anna looks a bit short on what she has done but her main rivals Papal Bull and Sagara are both enigmatic performers. Lucarno and Lion Sands may not be at their best on soft, though Lion Sands price looks over priced even so. Petara Bay is not up to the task on all known form.
So may be Anna is not such a bad price after all.

Will wait until late to bet.

[Gingertipster]

3:10 Newmarket
£35 @ 9/1 Lucarno (12.5% 7/1)
£34 @ 15/2 Lion Sands (13% 13/2)
£16 @ 9/2 Sagara (20% 4/1)

[Gingertipster]

3:10
Ground is now similar to when Lucarno won the Voltigeur. Is the likely front runner and may be able to nick it off the front. Pulled too hard tracking the pace in France. Should be the type to improve as a 4yo (big).
Lion Sands is improving, may not act on the ground but at the price is worth taking a chance on.
Sagara is a dog but a good one. May like the softer ground and ran well enough in the Gold Cup. Trouble is doubtful he'll get a truly run race.
Papal Bull is another dog but ran very well in the Coronation Cup. Again may not get the truly run race he seems to need.
Anna Pavlova would've been the one on soft or heavy, but is short considering a slowly run race may not play to her strengths.

[Kamo]

[quote=Gingertipster;1133752]2:00 Newmarket (addition)
£27 @ 8/1 (sportingbet) Classic Blade


£35 @ 9/1 Lucarno (12.5% 7/1)

Excellent work there mate great writeups