Flat season Ante post & notebook

[bowles10]

Maraased runs from my notebook after a decent 5th behind Pampas Cat at the Craven meeting.

Looks a decent race this one, so will be worth seeing what comes out of this race.

[WoodyTHFC]

Speculative one: Collection @ 200/1 for the Derby with WH. 2.5 pts e.w. Won a handicap today and nothing particular special about the race, indeed he only won it off a mark of just 80. However visually he was impressive imo. Relatively keen early on, then blocked off at least twice and possibly more then he picked up, widest of all, in good style and won nicely and impressively eye catchingly to me. Im no time expert but from figures that i understand, it was just slower than the older horses handicap on the card and more considerably slower than the group race won well by lash lashes. However that is to be expected, this is after all a relatively moderate race. However this game is all about impressions and I was impressed especially considering that it looked keen early on and still managed to pick up late. It clearly is progressing, second on debut, he then won at odds on. First real disappointement was first up this season, he was very keen that day and didnt get home in probably not ideal softer conditions. However the style of his late win today suggests that 12f would not be totally out of the question, he is his derby winning trainers only entry and at huge odds maybe worth a little play. Every chance he will go elsewhere in which case I would follow him in that,but at these sort of odds in race that looks to have lots of questions at the moment without New Approach and Weld's impressive horse the other day, he maybe worth a little go despite massive improvement being required.

[Gingertipster]

Unnefer's win today gives a boost to the form of Tajaaweed for the Derby. 10/1 looks worth taking on Betfair. Though if he is the supposed Stoute third string on the day, he could drift. Still if he does I'll go in again.

[Gingertipster]

Another one for you.

Ascot Gold Cup
Coastal Path
Yeats is getting on and there is no guarantee he is as good now as he was. With him going for a third Gold Cup there are doubts about the patricipation of stable companion Srptimus (who I rate the better horse). Coastal Path is in form and on the up. Proven at 2m (1m 7 1/2f). Is by Halling (1m2f winner) but is a half brother to 2006 Gold Cup runner up Reefscape. So should get the extra half mile. Unraced on a firm surface but Halling loved top-of-the-ground. Unbeaten in six starts, I believe the English Bookies have seriously under estimated this French colt's chance.

Ginge

[bowles10]

Now Eps is out of the way we can concentrate on the Royal Ascot meeting. One of my favourite races is the Royal Hunt Cup rn over 1m on the straight course.

Bankable is a laughable 2/1 favourite, they go 12/1 bar! Ok, it has done nothig wrong & the form of its goodwood win was franked really well by Lady Gloria winning at Epsom yesterday for Trainer James Given. Its 2 wins this season have both come on a soft surface however the ground should ride fast at the meeting if recent years are anything to go by.
The race i feel holds the key to the race is the victoria cup held in early May over the course but held over 7f. The winner Zaahid appreciated the retun to 7f & I cant have it over a mile. The 3rd King of Dixie has franked the form since by winning. The runner up Al Khaleej is not entered however that one must be followed next time out. The 4th We'll Come is the one I am supporting at decent ew odds of 14/1 Bet365. The racing post wrote: We'll Come could well improve past the first three as not only was this his first run of the season, but he also the ground was probably as fast as he would need. He was switched to race stands' side, well off the pace. He travelled smoothly, almost overconfidently, but when asked did not respond instantly, not surprisingly for a mile winner on quick ground, but continued to edge closer, racing with an ungainly head carriage. On the face of it, this performance cried out the Royal Hunt Cup and there may not be many better trial performances for it.


Selection We'll Come 14/1 Bet365 Royal Hunt Cup EW

[billy the punter]

Got my thoughts for this (my fave race) and will write-up soon.

Bankable HAS to be this price. It was most people's idea of the winner BEFORE this year's form. He is going to be at least stone well in come the day and I think he could start a very short price.

Just a bit gutted as I believe I'd have the winner if it were a normal year.

I'm hoping there will be some w/o fav betting.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Got my thoughts for this (my fave race) and will write-up soon.

Bankable HAS to be this price. It was most people's idea of the winner BEFORE this year's form. He is going to be at least stone well in come the day and I think he could start a very short price.

Just a bit gutted as I believe I'd have the winner if it were a normal year.

I'm hoping there will be some w/o fav betting.

I firmly believe no horse should start a 30 runner handicap lower than 7/2, so no value in a 9/4 shot for me. What if it comes up very fast ground, will it handle it as well as it does the soft? May be well in off a decent weight but the draw may also choose the winner?

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by bowles10

I firmly believe no horse should start a 30 runner handicap lower than 7/2, so no value in a 9/4 shot for me. What if it comes up very fast ground, will it handle it as well as it does the soft? May be well in off a decent weight but the draw may also choose the winner?

Going and draw are always issues and they will be the deciding factors for me as to if I include Bankable in my bet.

I should've taken the 7s will Hills when they opened.

He'll only be a saver at most for me now.

[welshman443]

the wokingham stakes-saturday-21st june-tombi,he won extremely well at york last time at york ,he as gone up 10lbs for that win-but the performance oozed quality and with 6f on fast ground ,he looks a craking e/way bet at 16/1 with hills-he would have to be capable of winning listed and group races to defy his new mark ,but his win at york suggests such success is a distinct possibility-i would also suggest to keeping an eye on the horse-genki, who is un-beaten in two visits to the track,as his record at ascot as got to be a big plus

[billy the punter]

Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

I really thought Genki would win a big sprint this year but although he has run two fair races this season I was disappointed with him LTO. I'm not a fan of his trainer, never have been. Even less so in sprints, Roger Charlton failed to have an older horse sprint winner at all last season.

Intrepid Jack has always been highly regarded and took the eye on his reppearance this season. I don't think it was Ryan Moore's finest ride this season when he come from last under a hand ride to finish a close 2nd at Haydock. He was beaten only a neck last season when seperating two horses that went on to hold their own in Group company (Dark Missile/Balthazaar's Gift). Well handicapped on this, running off a 5lb higher mark and seems flexible with regards to the ground, although ideally wouldn't want it easy - Morrison blamed the G/S for his narrow defeat last season.

Machinist is another well handicapped horse who will get his head in front very soon. Only 5lb higher than when winning easily at the Curragh last season and ran better than that mark to run Reverance close four runs ago. Ran well NTO when given no chance with the draw at York and was 2nd of the low numbers behind stablemate Masta Plasta on his penultimate start. Was well fancied last Saturday at Epsom but lost ALL chance at the start. Stable ran Lafi in that race before taking this in 2004.

Intrepid Jack 50% of stake 14/1 gen
Machinist 40% of stake 25/1 coral
Genki 10% of stake 16/1 gen

In-depth write-up on my thread, it took up too much space on this thread.

[mileni4uk]

This morning the Stoute/Moore Linngari has been backed from 9/1 to 7/1 for the Queen Anne Stakes and I had a little dabble

[welshman443]

himalya-coventry-stakes tuesday 4-20 ascot---won by 3/4 lengh on debut,hes shown plenty at home,he beat a usefull yardstick and is clearly a very intresting prospect trainer recons he is an horse with exeptional talent,well worth bearing in mind for the coventry stakes

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

This morning the Stoute/Moore Linngari has been backed from 9/1 to 7/1 for the Queen Anne Stakes and I had a little dabble

had a good shout for this today myself.

[billy the punter]

I think the betting is wrong for the St James Palace Stakes. HTN is entitled to be a short fav but I think there is too much difference between Twice Over and Ravens Pass but more so between Falco and Rio De La Plata. I think that RDLP should be joint 2nd fav with Falco.

RDLP didn't have the hardest race in the world in the Derby he was on the bridle until hampered by the winner and wasn't given a hard time after.

Rio De La Plata 20% E/W 14/1 Coral
Rio De La Plata 30% E/W 5/1 (w/o Henrythenavigator) SJ

[bowles10]

Billy, Ive posted up in the pther thread that Henry is too short at 1/2 & horses like Ravens Pass, Rio etc will be value.

Really hope Ravens gets the fast ground it wants so it can show what it is made of. Henry will be hard to get past & rio does stand a decent chance also. It was never going to win the derby wouldnt stay IMO, also i think they wanted New Approach to win anyway as they will no doubt be involved in the stud arrangements.

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Billy, Ive posted up in the pther thread that Henry is too short at 1/2 & horses like Ravens Pass, Rio etc will be value.

Really hope Ravens gets the fast ground it wants so it can show what it is made of. Henry will be hard to get past & rio does stand a decent chance also. It was never going to win the derby wouldnt stay IMO, also i think they wanted New Approach to win anyway as they will no doubt be involved in the stud arrangements.

Yes I saw your other post and I agree.

I think RDLP would've finished 4th in the Derby. But he travelled better than anything and the fact that he comes here relatively fresh he is entitled to be much shorter.

I agree about Ravens Pass but RDLP is probably the only horse in the field that is peaking right now.

I didn't think he was every going to me a 12f horse but I thought they may look after him enough for him to get 12f in the Derby - and only in the Derby. Similar to the ride Frankie gave Tobougg.

If I'm honest I think he is a 10f horse but there are no carrots at that distance for a 3yo.

[Gingertipster]

I would not back RDLP at 1m2f, but would at 7f or 1m.

Is Raven's Pass going for the St James? I thought he'd go for the Jersey. May bethat is why he looks over priced.

[mileni4uk]

Infallible has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 today. I have her in my ten to follow

[tedthewolf]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Infallible has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 today. I have her in my ten to follow

I think that was the one Jimmy Fortune said he was looking forward to riding most when asked by on tv yesterday.

[WoodyTHFC]

Originally Posted by WoodyTHFC

Speculative one: Collection @ 200/1 for the Derby with WH. 2.5 pts e.w. Won a handicap today and nothing particular special about the race, indeed he only won it off a mark of just 80. However visually he was impressive imo. Relatively keen early on, then blocked off at least twice and possibly more then he picked up, widest of all, in good style and won nicely and impressively eye catchingly to me. Im no time expert but from figures that i understand, it was just slower than the older horses handicap on the card and more considerably slower than the group race won well by lash lashes. However that is to be expected, this is after all a relatively moderate race. However this game is all about impressions and I was impressed especially considering that it looked keen early on and still managed to pick up late. It clearly is progressing, second on debut, he then won at odds on. First real disappointement was first up this season, he was very keen that day and didnt get home in probably not ideal softer conditions. However the style of his late win today suggests that 12f would not be totally out of the question, he is his derby winning trainers only entry and at huge odds maybe worth a little play. Every chance he will go elsewhere in which case I would follow him in that,but at these sort of odds in race that looks to have lots of questions at the moment without New Approach and Weld's impressive horse the other day, he maybe worth a little go despite massive improvement being required.

Well it didnt run in the Derby in the end but it won really nicely today as I advised elsewhere. Slightly surprised this horse was not in the TTTF as it looks one of those improving sorts who could run up a streak of wins and maybe into top group company soon.