Flat Rat 2008

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by TheRat

Just to add I have spent a LONG time going through a lot of the horses for the 10 to follow competition and have also gathered a list of 40/50 horses I will follow this seaons.
Laughter and Highland Legacy run tomorrow at Chester and are potential bets but will weigh up their chances tonight or more likely tomorrow.

Hope you're right re Laughter, I'm on at 40s for the Oaks.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Hope you're right re Laughter, I'm on at 40s for the Oaks.

Nice. Is that price still available. I have never really bet ante post myself, mainly because I have not been looking through the horses at the start of the season like I have now, so have not been in a position to assess things properly.
Will have a look through the prices tomorrow though and see what I can find.

[TheRat]

Ok, gonna run with these and see how they get on, both got good chances at decent odds

2.15 Chester Laughter WIN (4.7 Betfair)
Only been see last year winning a maiden at Leicester on soft, and has it all to prove, but expected to have a good year and has a good chance n the Oaks if runs well here. That run was over 7f so this is a step up but breeding means should not be a problem. Grond also a question. Sugar Mint a clear danger but connections should have her ready for this, and Stoute amongst the winners so far.

2.45 Chester Highland Legacy WIN (5.3 Betfair)
Well in on the handicap here, despite an extra 3lbs for last win, and improving still. Trainer form is decent here too. won easily LTO over 2m and this extra should not be a problem. 2/2 with Spencer on board and acts on the ground, although general concensus is likes a cut in the ground, but I am not worried about the going here at all. Fact of the matter is has won easily last 3 runs and as i stated, progressive sort, so although this is much tougher than previous encounters should go close on ability.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

Ok, gonna run with these and see how they get on, both got good chances at decent odds

2.15 Chester Laughter WIN (4.7 Betfair)
Only been see last year winning a maiden at Leicester on soft, and has it all to prove, but expected to have a good year and has a good chance n the Oaks if runs well here. That run was over 7f so this is a step up but breeding means should not be a problem. Grond also a question. Sugar Mint a clear danger but connections should have her ready for this, and Stoute amongst the winners so far.

2.45 Chester Highland Legacy WIN (5.3 Betfair)
Well in on the handicap here, despite an extra 3lbs for last win, and improving still. Trainer form is decent here too. won easily LTO over 2m and this extra should not be a problem. 2/2 with Spencer on board and acts on the ground, although general concensus is likes a cut in the ground, but I am not worried about the going here at all. Fact of the matter is has won easily last 3 runs and as i stated, progressive sort, so although this is much tougher than previous encounters should go close on ability.

Poor again. In hindsight shouldn't have bet Laughter as was finding enough negatives myself and that isn't how I bet. Since I personally fell I have 'improved' this is my worst run. Got Adversity running tomorrow so will look at that then.

Bets - 13
Won - 1
Placed - 2
Lost - 10
Profit/Loss - -34.05
Bank - 215.95 pts

[fintron]

It's sod's law Rat. You know the minute you don't post a selection in this thread, and only in the course thread, you'll go an land a 10/1 shot or something. Its the curse of doing a thread!! Keep going with it though.

[TheRat]

Too right Fintron!
Anyway, onwards and upwards!

14.15 Chester Achill Island WIN (3.05 Betfair)
Good race this and will be interesting to see how the Godolphin runner goes, has ability but stable done nothing so far so maybe best watched.
Interesting to note Aiden O' Brien has won this race twice in the last threee years with his only two runners. Only win for Achill Island was on good ground and was only 6th on his return this season, but that was on heavy and can be discounted really. Word from the trainer is very positive and I expect him to go well here. Unnefer main danger here imo

15.45 Lingfield Tawaash WIN (2.48 Betfair)
Another horse to follow after a good second on only run last season. Note the favourite has won this race 3/5 and Jarvis has a decent SR with 3Yr olds this term, and had his fair share of winners to show stable going well.
Form of the race last year hasn't shown us anything really, but should benefit from the extra furlong here.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

14.15 Chester Achill Island WIN (3.05 Betfair)
Good race this and will be interesting to see how the Godolphin runner goes, has ability but stable done nothing so far so maybe best watched.
Interesting to note Aiden O' Brien has won this race twice in the last threee years with his only two runners. Only win for Achill Island was on good ground and was only 6th on his return this season, but that was on heavy and can be discounted really. Word from the trainer is very positive and I expect him to go well here. Unnefer main danger here imo

15.45 Lingfield Tawaash WIN (2.48 Betfair)
Another horse to follow after a good second on only run last season. Note the favourite has won this race 3/5 and Jarvis has a decent SR with 3Yr olds this term, and had his fair share of winners to show stable going well.
Form of the race last year hasn't shown us anything really, but should benefit from the extra furlong here.

Oh my god, a winner!!
Tawaash comes through, I got good odds this morning as went off odds on. If anyone could let me know if it looked impressive I would appreciate it.
Achill Island placed in 3rd, but was a fair bit behind the front two.
Bit of profit for the day

Bets - 15
Won - 2
Placed - 2
Lost - 11
Profit/Loss - -29.25
Bank - 220.75 pts

[TheRat]

OK, I'm back for Royal Ascot. Been a while!

3.05 Dandy Man EW (11/1 Bet365) 1/4 odds, 3 to place
Ran well in this race last 2 years, second last year but has a good draw this time. Difficult to see what Kingsgate Native does as hasn't ran for a while and we don't know if ready. Ground will suit. Fleeting Spirit battered Dandy Man LTO but can be forgiven as Dandy Man lost a shoe. Must be given a chance here imo. Also worth noting the favourite has one one of the last ten. Godolphin been doing well lately with a few wins and many places

[TheRat]

16.20 Art Connoisseur EW (Betfair - 9.6 WIN and 4.1 Place, 3 TBP. 5 pts on each)
A horse I have been keeping an eye on, and one that has some potential, but now is the time to show it! Decent draw here and will hopefully be able to hit the rail early on. Unbeaten but both over 5F, extra furlong should be ok though, finished strongly LTO and looked like had more left. Second best in the topspeed ratings on the RP site. Connections have been getting him ready for the Coventry and should run a big race.
You don't usually get many big price winners here and looks like its best to focus on the top 4, but for the price am taking AC.
Unfortunatly most bookies going 3 to place......

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

OK, I'm back for Royal Ascot. Been a while!

3.05 Dandy Man EW (11/1 Bet365) 1/4 odds, 3 to place
Ran well in this race last 2 years, second last year but has a good draw this time. Difficult to see what Kingsgate Native does as hasn't ran for a while and we don't know if ready. Ground will suit. Fleeting Spirit battered Dandy Man LTO but can be forgiven as Dandy Man lost a shoe. Must be given a chance here imo. Also worth noting the favourite has one one of the last ten. Godolphin been doing well lately with a few wins and many places

Jeez. Go away, come back and nothing has changed
JUST beaten for a place into 4th

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

16.20 Art Connoisseur EW (Betfair - 9.6 WIN and 4.1 Place, 3 TBP. 5 pts on each)
A horse I have been keeping an eye on, and one that has some potential, but now is the time to show it! Decent draw here and will hopefully be able to hit the rail early on. Unbeaten but both over 5F, extra furlong should be ok though, finished strongly LTO and looked like had more left. Second best in the topspeed ratings on the RP site. Connections have been getting him ready for the Coventry and should run a big race.
You don't usually get many big price winners here and looks like its best to focus on the top 4, but for the price am taking AC.
Unfortunatly most bookies going 3 to place......

Very impressive performance, definatly keeping AC on my list, will be interesting to see what other runners do, 2nd and 3rd etc
Back into profit

Bets - 17
Won - 3
Placed - 2
Lost - 12
Profit/Loss - +19.25
Bank - 269.25 pts

[fintron]

Nice work Rat

[TheRat]

Cheers Fin

Ascot 15.45 Literato EW (20/1 Ladbrokes, 3 place 1/4 odds)
Has class in France, won a group one before. Ground may be a slight concern as usually likes a bit of cut. No doubt the horse has not performed for Godolphin and could be another horse they have managed to ruin! But has been running over 9F this season and back to 10F should be of benefit. Doesn't fit the top betting stats but Godolphin have a decent record in this race and at 20/1 seems to big to pass up on for a horse that has an a very impressive record.

[TheRat]

16.55 Rebecca de Winter EW (19.00 WIN and 5.3 PLACE, 3 places)
Tough sprint here, but once again a bit of a value play. High draw here, won LTO with Viva Ronaldo in second who has recently won, although not at this level, but of course we are dealing with 2yr olds here and with Moore on board can improve and get a good run here. In her first run came second to the Channon hose that then went on to run a class 3 and as long as gets a good route can go close

[TheRat]

Literato was a NR and RDW was a fairly poor 9th although I didn't see the race

Bets - 18
Won - 3
Placed - 2
Lost - 13
Profit/Loss - +9.25
Bank - 259.25 pts

[TheRat]

4.55 Ascot Moynahan EW (14/1 Coral 1/4 odds, 3 places)
Like the look of this one for the price here. Was a very decent 6th in the Guineas, and all the horses that have ran here above him have fared well. that's his only run after winning a good maiden last year, should come on from that run LTO too. Should perform on the ground, and the only question is the extra 2 furlongs. I would like to think he will see them out myself, but the question mark is why he is 14s,

[TheRat]

16.55 Whitcombe Minister EW (40/1 Stan James 1/4, 3places). 2pts EW (4 total)
Just a small bet here on a horse I have followed a little. I see a bit of money has come in for him. Has shown glimpses but I think the going will be a bit more beneficial today as the harder the better.

[TheRat]

Well WM went off at 20s, and ran like a 20/1 shot. Moynahan was last, appauling. Just too far I think, but never got going

Bets - 20
Won - 3
Placed - 2
Lost - 15
Profit/Loss - -4.75
Bank - 245.25pts

[TheRat]

2.30 - Cuis Ghaire WIN (11/10 Bet 365)
Has looked very impressive winning both starts to date, and is 1/1 over the distance and has won on good to firm and good to date, one of these wins was in a Group 3 too when bolted up LTO by 3 and a half lengths. Is a short price but rightly so. Smashes rivals on top speed rating and RPR. A few concerns would be she has only won at one track in Ireland and favourite only won this once. But hold group 1 entries and a lot is thought of her, should be extremely difficult to beat.

5.30 - Border Music EW (20/1 Coral, 4 places at 1/4 odds) and Regal Parade EW (50/1 Bl Sq, 4 places, 1/4 odds)
Another slight gamble with 29 going to post but I hope to find a big priced winner here with two that have a chance.
Border Music was just touched off here LTO over 6F and steps up today. Has perfomed with credit in big handicaps, although most good running over 7F on AW. Still has some calibre though and can put on a good show here. Has won at Ascot before too. Still seems to be on a winnable mark
Regal Parade has 2 wins from 4 over 7F, and does have a big task on his hands here with a bit of weight, but hence the 50/1! I still feel can run well. Won on ground and will need to run a cracker and get a good run.


Cuis Ghaire is 15 Pts WIN, and the other 2 are 2.5 pts EW, so 10 total poins for that race

[TheRat]

14.55 Redcar Holiday Cocktail EW (7/1 Coral, 3 places 1/5 odds)
Not been on form this term but on a good mark now and can improve here. Best at class 6 but should be given an EW chance on this mark. Quinn had a few winners yesterday which could be a positive sign