Flat Rat 2008

[RussP]

Brilliant mate. Glad to see you off the mark with a super 10/1 winner. The sign of things to come

[fintron]

Rat, You were cursing your luck the other week but you had been knocking on the door with a few seconds so it was only a matter of time until you landed one.

[TheRat]

Thanks for the kind words fintron, BTP, Russ, BillyH, Mileni and AK

3.40 Pontefract - Toboggan Lady WIN (4.8 Betfair)
Still showing improvement and is a proven stayer, although this is a little bit longer but there have been no signs that she cannot stay this distance. Second LTO to Grizebeck but easily weighed to get the better this time, and still off a winnable mark generally. Has won here before, and 3/8 for Ffrench. Great As Gold has won this race twice including last year, but has a bit more on plate this time and a little bit more weight and is suseptable to getting caught by a progressive sort like the selection. 3 of the horses in this smaller field are out of the handicap and will also have their work cut out. Maybe also worthy of note is trainer has won this race previously so horse will hopefully be well prepared! Main danger is At The Money who ran on well LTO (beating Great As Gold).

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

Thanks for the kind words fintron, BTP, Russ, BillyH, Mileni and AK

3.40 Pontefract - Toboggan Lady WIN (4.8 Betfair)
Still showing improvement and is a proven stayer, although this is a little bit longer but there have been no signs that she cannot stay this distance. Second LTO to Grizebeck but easily weighed to get the better this time, and still off a winnable mark generally. Has won here before, and 3/8 for Ffrench. Great As Gold has won this race twice including last year, but has a bit more on plate this time and a little bit more weight and is suseptable to getting caught by a progressive sort like the selection. 3 of the horses in this smaller field are out of the handicap and will also have their work cut out. Maybe also worthy of note is trainer has won this race previously so horse will hopefully be well prepared! Main danger is At The Money who ran on well LTO (beating Great As Gold).

4th, was well behind by the look of things. Must have been some show by Grizebeck to win so well

Bets - 5
Won - 1
Placed - 0
Lost - 4
Profit/Loss - +32.5
Bank - 282.5 pts

[TheRat]

3.10 Beverley Atabass Pride WIN (3/1 Betfred)
Mark Johnson certainly knows how to win this race, winning 3 of the last 9, including last year with Voodoo Moon. Still has a bit to prove, but should be progressive, and showed promise LTO when 3rd behind some progressive sorts on the AW. Back on turf now, ground is no problem and should go the trip. There are a few question marks but at the price am definatly taking it on!

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

3.10 Beverley Atabass Pride WIN (3/1 Betfred)
Mark Johnson certainly knows how to win this race, winning 3 of the last 9, including last year with Voodoo Moon. Still has a bit to prove, but should be progressive, and showed promise LTO when 3rd behind some progressive sorts on the AW. Back on turf now, ground is no problem and should go the trip. There are a few question marks but at the price am definatly taking it on!

3rd. No real pace final furlong. Poor strike rate, but still in profit

Bets - 6
Won - 1
Placed - 0
Lost - 5
Profit/Loss - +22.5
Bank - 272.5 pts

[TheRat]

16.30 Sandown Whitcombe Minister EW
Horse of mine to follow. Was 4th in a hot maiden last year, and followed this up with a win on the AW. 2nd LTO and the winner went on to win a listed race at Newmarket after to show the form was decent, and Whitcombe Minister was ranked 9lbs inferior on the day. Weight here looks good and can take this race at a decent price (hopefully). Showed ability so far, and maybe a question mark over the distance but pedigree suggests it may be able to handle it.
Will advise on price later or tomorrow

[TheRat]

Betfair - 5pts on 19.5 WIN and 5pts on 4.00 to place (3 places)

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

16.30 Sandown Whitcombe Minister EW
Horse of mine to follow. Was 4th in a hot maiden last year, and followed this up with a win on the AW. 2nd LTO and the winner went on to win a listed race at Newmarket after to show the form was decent, and Whitcombe Minister was ranked 9lbs inferior on the day. Weight here looks good and can take this race at a decent price (hopefully). Showed ability so far, and maybe a question mark over the distance but pedigree suggests it may be able to handle it.
Will advise on price later or tomorrow

No gooder, second last. See what kind of race it is in next time

Bets - 7
Won - 1
Placed - 0
Lost - 6
Profit/Loss - +12.5
Bank - 262.5 pts

[TheRat]

Just like to add this from the RP site

Whitcombe Minister's effort early in the straight proved shortlived, although he ran better than his finishing position suggests and might not have stayed.

I was slightly concerned about the trip and worth having another crack if dropped back

[billy the punter]

I think it's probable he didn't see out the 10f, not at Sandown anyway. His breeding suggests a slight concern over said distance. Although trainer said last year that he will be a 10f horse at three. Also they spoke about Italian Gns - which would be a mile on probably soft ground, so they must think gets close to 10f.

He is going to be a little hard to place, that's the problem, he isn't up to Group level but quite highly handicapped (92). It will need shrewd placement from his trainer, and I'm not sure I have that sort of confidence in Jamie Poulton. I mean he has totally ruined the horses handicap mark by running him in that conditions race at Kempton.

[TheRat]

4.30 Ascot Prohibit EW (Betfair 9.00 Win and 2.46 Place)
Ideal trip by the looks for the horse, and Gosden is on form at the minte. Will have to improve from handicap debut LTO when won well, but certainly has the ability to do that, and with the top 2 in the betting having to work hard from a bad draw looks like Prohibit can capitalise. Fortune also riding well, especially for Gosden on 3yr olds at the moment.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

4.30 Ascot Prohibit EW (Betfair 9.00 Win and 2.46 Place)
Ideal trip by the looks for the horse, and Gosden is on form at the minte. Will have to improve from handicap debut LTO when won well, but certainly has the ability to do that, and with the top 2 in the betting having to work hard from a bad draw looks like Prohibit can capitalise. Fortune also riding well, especially for Gosden on 3yr olds at the moment.

Horse was placed, but a few non runners. How will this effect my price?
Deductions were 6.2%, 6.9% and 34.5%

[TheRat]

OK, I make that 1.69 for the place, meaning a slight loss because of the non runners

Bets - 8
Won - 1
Placed - 1
Lost - 6
Profit/Loss - +10.95
Bank - 260.95 pts

[TheRat]

3.00 Redcar Stevie Thunder WIN (15 points)
Back to a mile after an easy victor LTO over 7f. Was second behind Jaser the run before that over a mile and put up a good show, was fairly clear of the rest. Jaser has once again gone on to record an impressive victory as well. Ground is soft tomorrow, and Stevie Thunder will have no trouble with that at all. Swinbank on cracking form too and despite carrying a bit more weight should be these rivals with the claimer McDonald on board who is also on great form. Very strong fancy hence the extra points on it.
Will advise price tomorrow

[TheRat]

1.83 Betfred

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

3.00 Redcar Stevie Thunder WIN (15 points)
Back to a mile after an easy victor LTO over 7f. Was second behind Jaser the run before that over a mile and put up a good show, was fairly clear of the rest. Jaser has once again gone on to record an impressive victory as well. Ground is soft tomorrow, and Stevie Thunder will have no trouble with that at all. Swinbank on cracking form too and despite carrying a bit more weight should be these rivals with the claimer McDonald on board who is also on great form. Very strong fancy hence the extra points on it.
Will advise price tomorrow

Beaten in a photo

Bets - 9
Won - 1
Placed - 1
Lost - 7
Profit/Loss - -4.05
Bank - 245.95 pts

[TheRat]

2.10 Newmarket Perks EW (Stan James WIN 5.50 Betfair Place 2.00)
EW bet to nothing imo. Cracking run LTO when won by 6L over a mile. Was on good to soft and is unproven on good really, but the nature of the win LTo suggests can go well here, and the second and fifth horse have gone on to win since the LTO run which shows how good it was. Up 12lbs for the win but can go on to improve again and should be in the places at least if runs well and on the good ground. Dunlop won this race last year too so may have Perks ready to ain this again

If Perks does run well, may well have a go on Pinkindie too in the 5.10

5.45 Newmarket Bid For Glory EW (Betfair WIN 13.5 Place 3.95)
Had some big priced winners in this race over the last 10 years and I really fancy Big For Glory to go close. Trainer done well handful of runners recently. Good show LTO, behind Championship Point, who was just over 3 lengths behind Ask in the Gordon Richards Stakes, and behind Spice Route who is used to running in class 1 races. Has won over 1m 3f and there was nothign there then to suggest couldn't handle another furlong.
Tough race to call but Bid For Glory is a big price here imo.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by TheRat

2.10 Newmarket Perks EW (Stan James WIN 5.50 Betfair Place 2.00)
EW bet to nothing imo. Cracking run LTO when won by 6L over a mile. Was on good to soft and is unproven on good really, but the nature of the win LTo suggests can go well here, and the second and fifth horse have gone on to win since the LTO run which shows how good it was. Up 12lbs for the win but can go on to improve again and should be in the places at least if runs well and on the good ground. Dunlop won this race last year too so may have Perks ready to ain this again

If Perks does run well, may well have a go on Pinkindie too in the 5.10

5.45 Newmarket Bid For Glory EW (Betfair WIN 13.5 Place 3.95)
Had some big priced winners in this race over the last 10 years and I really fancy Big For Glory to go close. Trainer done well handful of runners recently. Good show LTO, behind Championship Point, who was just over 3 lengths behind Ask in the Gordon Richards Stakes, and behind Spice Route who is used to running in class 1 races. Has won over 1m 3f and there was nothign there then to suggest couldn't handle another furlong.
Tough race to call but Bid For Glory is a big price here imo.

Perks placed so just money back on that but Bid For Glory was 5th

Bets - 11
Won - 1
Placed - 2
Lost - 8
Profit/Loss - -14.05
Bank - 235.95 pts

[TheRat]

Just to add I have spent a LONG time going through a lot of the horses for the 10 to follow competition and have also gathered a list of 40/50 horses I will follow this seaons.
Laughter and Highland Legacy run tomorrow at Chester and are potential bets but will weigh up their chances tonight or more likely tomorrow.