Fintron's Nursery Handicap Thread

[Glaze]

Patch Patch is a fairly decent price, looking over the races last night I thought it might be shorter. I know there is a few more horses who won last time out in the race but Patch Patch is definitely the stand out one. I'll probly have a single bet on it myself if the first horse in my treble fails to win. Good luck.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by Glaze

Patch Patch is a fairly decent price, looking over the races last night I thought it might be shorter. I know there is a few more horses who won last time out in the race but Patch Patch is definitely the stand out one. I'll probly have a single bet on it myself if the first horse in my treble fails to win. Good luck.

Cheers.

That race just looks very weak to me, like you said in your post.

Tilly's Tale has had two failed chances in nurseries now and has been raised 7 lbs for a neck defeat last time out.

Ignatieff flopped on nursery debut previously and is 5 lb higher now having won a maiden since.

Star Promise is one of the more likely ones to be fair, but beat little at Southwell last time out and must prove ability on grass now.

Mercer's Row has the beating of a couple of these on Muss form but could have perhaps shown more last time out, when appearing to have regressed.

Lady Lube Rye had multiple chances in nurseries now, and has failed.

Emeralds Spirit hasn't shown a great deal in maidens, and if the switch to handicap brings about expected improvement, I'm happy to write off as one that was hard to predict.

Fingers crossed for Patch Patch!

[Glaze]

What's your view on Maoi Chinn Tire now mate? Like I said in my thread I have doubts about this horse seeing out races in the future, looked like it had it in the bag at Newbury and failed to win and today it looked like it was going to mount a big challenge but failed once again in what was a far from special race.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by Glaze

What's your view on Maoi Chinn Tire now mate? Like I said in my thread I have doubts about this horse seeing out races in the future, looked like it had it in the bag at Newbury and failed to win and today it looked like it was going to mount a big challenge but failed once again in what was a far from special race.

I thought he ran a respectable race, seemed to be picking up well late on, but Ginger Ted the other side of the runner that split them was the eyecatcher and the deserved winner. I suppose that winner was a good bet at 20/1 with hindsight, he was only 3 lbs higher than his CD win, but once again Maoi Chinn Tire was well backed from 9/2 into 2/1. I don't think there is any denying the horse is well handicapped, the maiden form strongly suggested it and the two runs in nurseries have proven he can go close off 60, but like you say its his attitude this perhaps has been questioned. I think he is a certainty to win a nursery this season if he stays on 60, its just gonna be a case of getting a good price about him and finding the day when he decides to go in! So agonising to miss out on the places there. Looked very tight indeed and the official margin between him and the third was a nose, ouch!

I may as well comment on the other two I posted in here whilst I'm at it. Admin was my pick in the 3.00 at Lingfield and ran a very good race into second. Raced in mid-division in the early part of the race he manoevred his way onto the outside as they turned for home and picked up well around 1f out when asked. He was rapidly closing on the winner at the end and would have won with about another 100 yards or so, so a step up to 6f would interest me next time out for that one.

The third nursery bet today was Patch Patch at Musselburgh. Firstly, this one was not strong in the market, it drifted out to 4/1 co-favouritism with three others minutes before the race, and the pictures during loading showed him bolt upright, nearly throwing off jockey Phillip Makin. He was the last to load and never appeared settled, pulling hard and never at any point looking like he was travelling with any fluency during the race. He was soundly beaten at never looked as if he'd be in with a shout of winning.

So a disappointing day profit wise but all will probably given another chance, price pending, in future.

[fintron]

6.20 Hamilton

Diamond Laura is turned out under a penalty here having won in a nursery at Chester last time out and has kept some good company this year, such as when chasing home Monsieur Chevalier on her debut at Folkestone. She seems to still be improving and with the yard and jockey in good form, ticks all the boxes for me. 4/1 SJ, 1 pts win.

3.00 Salisbury

Frozen Power and Janeiro look the main contenders here but with the former priced at even money at present I am going to take the latter each-way instead. His third in a Beverley conditions race reads well as the likes of Fratellino, Hearts of Fire and Archers Road have all emerged out of that race and are useful types. He has already dipped his toes into handicap waters and wasn't beaten far off 83 here before. He has since gone on to win a maiden at Yarmouth so returns to nurseries off 4 lbs higher, but with Ross Atkinson replacing Richard Kingscote in the saddle, his apprentices claim counteracts that burden and I think he should go well over this 7f trip. 5/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[Glaze]

Looks like we have different horses today in them two races. Hopefully one of us should win then after that day yesterday. Good luck.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by Glaze

Looks like we have different horses today in them two races. Hopefully one of us should win then after that day yesterday. Good luck.

I like both of the horses you have picked and understand your reasonining, but the Nicholls and Bin Suroor yards are two I persnoally swerve as much as possible. With Godolphin, its a decision made down to value, and with Nicholls its an issue to do with unreliability, but plenty of other punters have completely opposite views on these yards to me.

Good luck with your bets too.

[RussP]

Fin, like the look of Janeiro. Should go well and looks an EW bet to nothing. One little snippet for you, Dascombe has a cracking record when taking just one horse to a meeting but only if that horse runs in a handicap. Something worth looking out for.

In the last week, the 2 qualifiers have been:

Haafhd Time, WON 17/2
Noverre To Go, WON 5/1

[fintron]

Originally Posted by RussP

Fin, like the look of Janeiro. Should go well and looks an EW bet to nothing. One little snippet for you, Dascombe has a cracking record when taking just one horse to a meeting but only if that horse runs in a handicap. Something worth looking out for.

In the last week, the 2 qualifiers have been:

Haafhd Time, WON 17/2
Noverre To Go, WON 5/1

Nice one. I like Dascombe and think he is an excellent trainer, but didn't know specifically about that stat so cheers.

[fintron]

Another annoying day today with Janeiro pulling hard and unplacing and Diamond Laura, backed win only, finishing second.

Results Update

Opening balance: +6.89 pts

Maoi Chinn Tire/Boga NR
27. Safari Camp -1.5
28. Queen's Haw -0.5
29. Bahamian Music (WON 11/4) +4.13
30. Bell's Ocean/Foletta/Any Day -1
31. Maoi Chinn Tire -3
32. Admin -1
33. Patch Patch -1
34. Diamond Laura -1
35. Janeiro -1.5

Overall Figures

Pts staked: 39
P/L: +0.52
ROI: +1 %
S/R: 9/35 = 26 %

[fintron]

4.05 York

A competitive nursery and although all of the runners are unexposed, from the limited formlines that have been laid down, it looks as if this could get run at a good pace. Purely for that reason, I'm siding with the bottom weight Uddy Mac, who is one of a few likely hold up horses in the race, however, Step In Time is my main bet. The Giant's Causeway colt got his head infront on his second start in a Newmarket maiden and was then given an official rating of 82. He disappointed in the Chesham (listed) but then was only narrowly denied off this mark in a nursery when last seen, and with his mark unaltered here, he could gain compensation.

Step In Time 7/1 Paddypower, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds)
Uddy Mac, 50/1 SJ, 0.1 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[Glaze]

It's a tough one the 4.05, every horse has a few positives and a few negatives, I guess it's just finding the right one. I was thinking this race could set itself up for Pintura but I'm not exactly sure how good this horse is, it seemed to get lucky last time and might leave itself too much to do.

Good luck.

[fintron]

3.05 Chester

Leleyf - better drawn than on last visit here and wasnt digraced in Wetherbys Super Sprint earlier in season. Has had a few chances in nurseries and failed to take them but this looks easier, dropping in handicap and may pop up at some point. 8/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by fintron

3.05 Chester

Leleyf - better drawn than on last visit here and wasnt digraced in Wetherbys Super Sprint earlier in season. Has had a few chances in nurseries and failed to take them but this looks easier, dropping in handicap and may pop up at some point. 8/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW.

Broke poorly, had to sit towards the rear, jockey opted to stay on the inside and hope a gap appear, it didn't, he was hampered by one on the outside, but ultimately it would never have won anyway. -0.5 pt