Fintron's Nursery Handicap Thread

[fintron]

Originally Posted by kevsul

It is 15/2 on sporting life result page, was this an early price somewhere Fin.


Only want to know as i picked it in the DHRC as well as another 16/1 shot

Yeah Kev, I posted 12/1 as that was the price I have taken and the price that was current at the time I posted in the Catterick thread and in my own flat thread this morning (11 am or so). Like I say, I should have posted it in here (each-way in line with all previous bets at 0.5 pt EW) but was in a rush before a meeting and forgot to copy it in here.

This was my write up in the Catterick thread...

3.50 Catterick

Whippers Love hadn't shown a great deal in maidens but the switch to handicaps worked well for him as he was only narrowly beaten in a nursery at Kempton last time out (btn nk by Toga Tiger). However, his mark has been raised 4 lb in defeat and even though there are few better trainers around to continue his improvement, I think Jehu is worth a go instead at the double figure price. Mick Channon's colt put in nothing more than a modest shift on his debut in a Newbury maiden when behind the classy Canford Cliffs, but he had Listillo behind, and given that that rival was only beaten by a neck in a Ffos Las nursery yesterday (off 72) I think we can start to put Jehu's mark of 77 into some sort of context. Listillo himself finished three and a quarter lengths off Lucky Rave in a Wolverhampton maiden, and if we take Lucky Rave as a form marker, we see that Lucky Rave had Whippers Love well back in a Haydock maiden in May. It is true to say that Mark Johnston's horse has improved since, but I think it is a potentially revealing piece of form. On Jehu's second start he found only Xtentialist too strong in a Goodwood maiden, and that reads as a solid piece of form considering that rival found only Canford Cliffs too strong in the Group 2 Coventry stakes when last seen. All in all, I think Jehu is fairly handicapped, can bounce back from a no show in a warm Newmarket nursery last time out, and can take advtantage of the 3 lb drop in his mark. 12/1 SJ, EW

Well done with your DHRC picks!

[fintron]

Two more nurseries to tackle tonight...

Bet 17:

6.45 Leicester

Queen's Hawk - makes h'cap debut off 78 here. Won Goodwood maiden when infront of Toga Tiger, whose won a nursery off 82 since. Also, on debut at Bath, had Quaker Parrot comfortably behind and that rival won off 72 in nurseries. Avon River another to have come out of that race who has won since. Has been put in his place in the Chesham and in Ascot novices races, latest, but looks to have a chance off this mark. 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

Bet 18:

6.30 Salisbury

Val C - had Totally Invincible (won twice since) behind in a Warwick maiden, the sixth, Velvet Band has won since too and the winner has placed in listed company. Finished around several of these in a Lingfield maiden last time out yet much bigger price. 12/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Bet 19

6.40 Newmarket

A couple of pieces of form suggest Coloursoftheglen is reasonably well handicapped and I fancy Tom Dascombe's colt as the one to be on here. On his debut at Haydock he had Take It To The Max (has won in nurseries this season) behind and on his second start at Lingfield he was only a neck off Toga Tiger, who won in a nursery off 82 the other today. He made all to win at Wolverhampton last time out, seems to be going the right way, and he's my pick. 7/2 VC Bet, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Coloursoftheglen was second yesterday.

Bet 20

2.05 York

Merseryside Star was well fancied ahead of his handicap debut at Pontefract but the stiff finish put pay to his chances and he finished unplaced. However, his promising run at Ascot when last seen suggests a win off this sort of mark is not beyond him and at 7/1 I think he is worth chancing. 7/1 VC, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Bet 21

2.30 Newcastle

Temperament is an issue with such lightly raced types. As they learn their job they often display signs of greenness or unwanted behaviour pre-race, and this was what ruined Ananda Kanda's chances last time out at Kempton where she was reluctant to load into the stalls. However, my experience with Tom Folan earlier in the thread says that one should not give up on such horses if the belief that they are well handicapped remains, as they may settle down and show their true colours at any moment, and I'm hoping that is the case here. I backed her that day at Kempton because I thought her Haydock beating of Jeanie Johnson read well. That rival is well regarded and was second to Jira in a listed race when last seen. Refuse to Wait, third at Haydock that day, has also won since (conincidentally at this track) so I think that form has been boosted. 12/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

4.35 Good - Coloursoftheglen 9/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

Same reasoning as before, think its well handicapped.

[fintron]

Coloursoftheglen was fifth today, wasn't beaten far, but goes down as a loser. A few familiar names are out in nurseries tomorrow, so keeping faith with them with some decent prices availalble.

2.10 Newmarket

Bell's Ocean - I was on this three weeks ago at this course and she flopped, but she drops back down to a distance over which she is proven so she gets another chance. I think she is well handicapped based upon her maiden form, and she is a course and distance winner. 25/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 4 places).

2.20 Thirsk

Senate Majority - had Take It To The Max from the Gary Moore yard behind when sixth at Ripon on debut. That rival has won a nursery off 75 since, Senate Majority is let in on 66 here. Price TBC in morning.

4.50 Goodwood

Leleyf - wasn't disgraced in the Wetherby's Super Sprint when last seen and although this handicap is no walk in the park, it may be easier than that Newbury assignment. Her poor showing at Chester may have been explained by a poor draw as she was forced to race wide. Again, I think she is well handicapped based on bits and pieces of maiden form. Price TBC tomorrow.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by fintron

2.20 Thirsk

Senate Majority - had Take It To The Max from the Gary Moore yard behind when sixth at Ripon on debut. That rival has won a nursery off 75 since, Senate Majority is let in on 66 here. Price TBC in morning.

4.50 Goodwood

Leleyf - wasn't disgraced in the Wetherby's Super Sprint when last seen and although this handicap is no walk in the park, it may be easier than that Newbury assignment. Her poor showing at Chester may have been explained by a poor draw as she was forced to race wide. Again, I think she is well handicapped based on bits and pieces of maiden form. Price TBC tomorrow.

Senate Majority - 10/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).
Leleyf - 20/1 Paddypower, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

The Wheels have started to fall off in here. Need a winner today to get things back on track.

2.55 Chester

Diamond Laura hacked up in a Beverley claimer recently, offering her the opportunity to switch hands, moving on from David Evans to Ruth Carr. I've followed her a few times this season and think she is potentially well treated ahead of her handicap debut here. She is let in on 80, and had some useful form earlier in the year - a second to Monsieur Chevalier on debut and fourth to Misheer in a listed race at York in which she was closely matched with Little Scotland (rated much higher than 80). She's reasonable well drawn here and her running style is suited to the track. 4/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

2.45 Newbury

I was on Jehu last time out at Catterick as I thought he had been let into nurseries on a great mark considering a pieces of form with Xtension, and Clive Cox's rival has since boosted that piece of form further still. Jehu got up to win that day at Catterick and although he's inevitably gone up in the handicap, may still have room for further improvement. Maoi Chinn Tire may have also been given a tasty mark off which to operate. She was sixth in a Folkestone nursery that has since thrown out Tom Folan (nursery winner off 72) and then last time out at Haydock she was only two lengths of Bluie. Dandy Nicholls' horse won a Goodwood nursery off 66, so those two pieces of form hint to me she's on a good mark here.

Jehu 12/1 SJ, 0.5 EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)
Maoi Chinn Tire 11/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Diamond Laura touched some double figure prices in running today at Chester but got one over the layers by getting up to win. Maoi Chinn Tire was one of the money horses of the day, having been advised at 11/1 he went off as short as 4/1, was placed, but by taking the early price we almost broke even despite the losing stake from Jehu (unplaced 5th of 14).

Results Update

Profit after last update: +2.82 pts

9. Mahiki +3
10. Ragsta/Ananda Kanda -1
11. Gillburg/SF +0.6
12. Any Day -1
13. Weetentherty -1
14. Tom Folan +1.39
.... Leleyf NR
15. Jehu +7.2
16. Queen's Hawk -1
17. Val C -1
18. Coloursoftheglen -1
19. Merseyside Star -1
20. Ananda Kanda -1
21. Coloursoftheglen -1
22. Bells Ocean -1
23. Senate Majority -1
24. Leleyf -1
25. Diamond Laura +4
26. Jenu/ Maoi Chinn Tire -0.12

P/L this update: +4.37

Up to now I have been betting to level 1 pt stakes but to try get the most out of this thread I am moving over to a 1-3 pt scale. Today's bet at Newbury was a 2 point bet and the first one away from level stakes.

Overall Stats

Pts staked: 27
P/L: +6.89
ROI: + 26 %
S/R: 8/26 = 31 %

[fintron]

Bet 27

3.10 Chepstow

Maoi Chinn Tire - I was on this one at Newbury on Sunday and he was smashed off the boards, from 11/1 in the morning into an SP of 4/1 so others clearly thought he was well handicapped. My opinion that 60 is overly generous for him stems from the fact he contested a maiden which has thrown up subsequent nursery winner Tom Folan, whilst he was only two lengths off Bluie, who won a nursery off 66 at Haydock only the other day for David Nicholls. Overall, I think he's very well treated, he hit odds on in running on Sunday yet only managed third (albeit a tight third); compensation may be waiting here now dropped back in trip (failed to see out 7f last time out after dirfting inside the final furlong). Another one that takes my eye at a price is Boga for Micky Channon. She had Transfixed behind in a Bath seller and that rival has ran to marks of around 68 in nursery company. Boga was two and a half lengths infront that day, whilst she was also only three and a quarter lengths off Any Day on her debut in a Lingfield maiden. That rival has won off 72 in nurseries, so together these pieces of form hint to me that Boga is well handicapped on her present mark of 65. Maoi Chinn Tire 11/4 Bet 365, 2.25 pts win, Boga, 16/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pts win.

[fintron]

Maoi Chinn Tire's price contracted rapidly again yesterday, she is clearly thought to be well handicapped, but the race was abandoned at Chepstow and that may be the last chance we get to take a good price for her.

3.00 Brighton

Safari Camp looks quite well treated with an opening mark of 53 and could go well under Luke Morris. He was fifth behind Monsieur Chevalier on his debut at Folkestone and although the field were strung out like washing at the end, he was around eight lengths off Anjomarba (rated 80+ in nurseries) and about ten lengths off Diamond Laura, who has just picked up a nursery off a lenient mark of 80. In a Bath seller Safari Camp was around two lengths off Transfixed (beaten by a head off 59 in a nursery, now rated 69) and in a Chepstow seller, latest, he was a couple of lengths off True Red when giving away weight. Bearing in mind a piece of form that rival has with subsequent nursery winner Mahiki at Southwell (was second to Mahiki in a maiden, and Mahiki won nursery off 62 since), I think that is three pieces of form to hint Safari Camp is well handicapped. 7/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Bad pick today, -1.5 pts.

[fintron]

Bet 29

6.45 Newmarket

Queen's Hawk - backed it before and sticking by the original reasoning. Think he's handicapped to have every chance based upon a piece of form with Toga Tiger (winner in nurseries since). Mark eased 3 lbs upon last run, so having a little go. 33/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Queen's Hawk was nowhere.

3.30 Wolverhampton

Bahamian Music has run well on both his two starts and looks handicapped to have every chance judging on his debut third at Thirk when he finished in close proximity to subsequent nursery winner Jehu. He's won a maiden himself to show he's progressing, and should go well for an inform yard. 11/4 Paddypower, 1.5 pt win.

[fintron]

Bahamian Music just got up by a neck to win at Wolverhampton for just over 4 pts profit. The other nursery of the day comes in the opener at Windsor and I'm going in triple handed. Two of the picks have been posted in here before........

5.50 Windsor

Originally Posted by fintron

Bell's Ocean looks well handicapped on an opening mark of 75 for her handicap bow and with Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin taking off a useful 5 lbs I think she is the best handicapped horse in the race.

Originally Posted by fintron

At Bath, Any Day broke slowly and was ridden with a little bit too much restraint for my liking - I would have ideally liked her to have tracked the leader Kings of Leo. She plugged on though, staying on nicely at the end and looks to have more race in her in my opinion, most likely when stepped up in trip.

Bell's Ocean has let me down a couple of times now but I feel she is handicapped to pick up a nursery when in the mood so at the prices I'm having a little bet. Any Day is stepped up from 5f to 6f tonight and I think that is ideal. My third pick is one that makes her second start in nurseries, Foletta. Richard Hannon's filly looks well handicapped on a mark of 72 here. She chased home Xtentialist on her debut with Jehu (subsequent nursery winner) splitting them and she went close at Leicester on her handicap debut last time out. Although she has been raised 3 lbs she may still have a chance on 72.

Any Day 12/1 Hills, 0.6 pt
Foletta 14/1 Hills, 0.25 pt
Bell's Ocean 28/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Any Day was placed yesterday, but the three goes down as losers as they were only backed to win in here.

7.25 Nottingham

I've posted Maoi Chinn Tire for both of his last two runs but the cat has now unfortunately been let out in the bag and the whole industry knows just how well handicapped this horse is bearing in mind market movements on both of those runs. Stan Moore must have had a wad down at Newbury on the 2nd August as I took 11/1 early in the morning and the colt was steamed into 4/1. He ran a corker of a race, hitting 1/10 in running, but failed to see out seven furlongs and was headed close home. He was then set to run at Chepstow the other week over six furlongs and the 11/4 offered early morning didn't hang around long and he was steamed into 6/4 before the race was abandoned because of rain. A few bits of form with subsequent nursery winners Bluie and Tom Folan suggest he is well handicapped, and hopefully he can confirm what the market has been strongly hinting at in recent weeks. 9/2 Bet 365, 1.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

3.00 Lingfield

Admin chased home Orpen Grey last time out who, in turn, was beaten only by the useful Arcano in a Newmarket Group 2 last time out. Admin has shown enough in maidens to suggest he could find a race off 78 now handicapping and at 4/1 he's my bet. 4/1 Skybet, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

6.40 Musselburgh

Patch Patch - Michael Dods knows what he is doing with his sprinters and his gelding has improved nicely between his first two runs to date. Second on his debut behind Bould Mover, the winner has won since, and Patch Patch stayed on well to land a race of his own at Carlisle, latest. If he continues the improvement he could land this. 3/1 SJ, 1 pt win