Fintron's Nursery Handicap Thread

[fintron]

Cheers Spooner, things are still nicely in profit and I'm really confident about the one I've found today....

4.20 Newmarket

Bell's Ocean looks well handicapped on an opening mark of 75 for her handicap bow and with Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin taking off a useful 5 lbs I think she is the best handicapped horse in the race. The Hannon pair look strong but seem handicapped accordingly, as does Jehu, but I feel this one has been let in lighty and could land the spoils. Second on her debut in a Windsor maiden the winner, Extentialist, has turned out useful, finishing third to Lady Darshan (third in Grp 2 Cherry Hinton earlier in the week) at Windsor. Extentialist has a couple of pieces of form with Kings of Leo, who was given a handicap mark of 79 for a Lingfield nursery recently, so bearing that in mind, Bell's Ocean could have feabily also been given another half a stone here. Bell's Ocean second run came at Newmarket when she was fifth and not a million miles behind Angellina Ballerina, a horse that looks a genuine 80+ animal judging by a seventh in a listed race when last seen, behind Curtains, Jira, Electric Feel and infront of the well regarded Mudaarah. The fourth has won since and was rated 79 when landing a Kempton maiden, the seventh has found a race since, and it looks okay form. She landed a Newmarket fillies race herself in May, shaping as though she'd get this trip today, and although she was mullered in the Albany Stakes by Habaayib, that winner franked the form by placing in the Cherry Hinton and those infront look classy - Lillie Langtry is already a Grp 3 winner, She's A Character had sluiced up in her maiden, 7th Jira won nto in a listed race....she clearly ran into useful fillies, and although not up to their level, she was closely matched with Eternal Instinct, who she had two lengths behind. That rival went in in a nursery of 72 at Musselburgh recently, so Bell's Ocean's mark, 3 lbs higher seems fair. I think John Ryan's jockey booking is a masterstroke and will ensure his filly remains competive this afternoon. 14/1 Hills EW, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Duplicated post

[fintron]

Bet 7

8.15 Chester

We've already seen Lady Lube Rye and Colonel Max in a nursery the other day but, along with Duke of Rainford, they have been pulled from the race and only seven line up. That probably means that the draw will be of little significance despite the fact this is over six furlongs. Michaelmas Daisy will likely bomb along from box one and try to make all under Adrian Nicholls, and Transfixed was only narrowly pipped by Military Call the other day and is handicapped to have a chance. However, I think Leleyf is the call at the prices. Mick Channon's filly has already ran in some decent races and aquitted herself well. After winning on her debut at Lingfield she then scooped a conditions race at Salisbury beating Kurtanella who won a conditions race herself next time out and has ran in listed races since. The third is an 80's horse and the fourth has won since, so that looks fair form. She was placed in a fillies listed race at Beverley when having Angelena Ballerina and Little Scotland behind, and that looks good form as both are better than 79 rated handicappers - the mark off which Leleyf has to work here. She finished midfield in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot and was closely matched with Absolute Music (4th in listed race since), Jira (won listed race since) and the horses at the front of the field are pretty special. Habaayib placed in the Cherry Hinton this week and the second is already a Group 3 winner. She was far from disgraced back in 11th. She was 5th lto but gave weight to Lady Darshaan, placed in the Cherry Hinton this week and Extentialist and Kings of Leo, which look about 80+ horses, so faced a tough task, and overall I make her well handicapped. 8/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

[fintron]

Bet 8

2.05 York

I think Final Ovation is worth chancing at the price. OR of 80 here but chased home Reignier (ran well in decent 2 to race at HQ this week) at Muss and wasnt far of Little Scotland at Donc. Also like Tom Folan who was third to Start Rover and Archers Road at Chester and had Goodbye Earl (reopposes here) behind. Was also not far behind Fratellino who is a fair sort and a 80+ horse. Runs off 75 which looks okay.

Tom Folan 10/1 SJ, 0.25 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places)
Final Ovation 16/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

A similar story to yesterday really in here. Final Ovation was backed off the boards from 16's into 8's but at the end of the day both picks were well beaten and were losers. Time to update the results:

1. Vilnius -1
2. Military Call +4.5
3. Eternal Instinct (and a losing SF) +3.22
4. Take It To The Max, Ice Cool Lady, King of Axum +0.1
5. Soccer -1
6. Bell's Ocean -1
7. Leleyf -1
8. Final Ovation, Tom Folan -1

Pts staked: 8
P/L: +2.82 pts
ROI: +35 %
S/R: 38 %

[fintron]

Bet 9:

7.10 Southwell

Mahiki is proven to act on the surface and won over course and distance last time out in a seller. Although she has to carry a penalty for that win she still looks well handicapped on what is effectively 68, bearing in mind her maiden form. She ran into useful types on her Newmarket debut (Radiohead, Isaaj) and was then closely matched with Daniella de Bruijn at Yarmouth. At Warwick she bumped into July Stakes second, Orpen Grey, all in all I think her mark and ability to act on the sand stand her in good stead. 11/4 Boyle, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Mahiki was a dirfted with a lot of money coming for Lucky Mellor. The joint favourites pulled clear of the field and battled inside the final furlong with Mahiki just coming out on top. It was very tight and from the camera angle I thought she'd got done, but she just got up to return a 3 pt winner.

[BH]

Nice one Fin, well done mate!

[fintron]

Cheers BH, keeps things ticking over nicely.

Bet 10

6.40 Kempton

I made Ragsta my nap when she was unfancied for her run at Salisbury a few weeks ago, but she was a late withdrawl and makes her handicap here instead tonight. Unfortunately, a much shorter price is available tonight, but I still think she is well handicapped and will take a chance on Richard Hannon's filly. She bumped into a very useful type in Radiohead on her Bath debut; Brian Meehan's Johannesburg colt won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes next time out, so although Ragsta was four lengths adrift of the winner, she was far from disgraced, especially since she herself put quite a bit of daylight between herself and the third. She was then upped to todays trip of 6f when appearing at Lingfield and finished a respectable fourth. The winner, Hairspray was narrowly beaten in a listed contest next time out whilst the second, Curtains, won a maiden and has then ran credibly in Group 3 and listed races when narrowly beaten in large fields. Ragsta was only a length or two behind those horses, which you would imagine would be rated at least 80+ now, so looks to be well handicapped running off a much lower mark (67) for Richard Smith here. She won last time out in a seller and although its foolhardy to get carried away with seller form, that run at least showed she has the ability to get her head infront. She steps up in trip to seven furlongs tonight but has hinted she'd get further than six on previous runs. 7/2 Bet 365, 0.8 pt win.

Amanda Kanda beat the well regarded Jeanie Johnson on her second run at Haydock, and with Mark Johnston's horse going on to finish a good second in a listed race shortly after (after winning a maiden herself), Amanda Kanda could have been given a good mark on 74. Given JJ had the likes of Jira and Curtains behind in that listed race you could argue that Amanda Kanda is likely to get the better of Ragsta here, but I think off a 7 lb lower mark Ragsta may just come out on top. I'll have Amanda Kanda as a saver anyway. 4/1 Bet 365, 0.2 pt win.

[fintron]

No joy yesterday with either Ragsta or Amanda Kanda in the evening nursery at Kempton. With race replays no longer free on the RUK after their recent troubles, I'm unable to comment on those two first hand unfortunately. Looking on Sporting Life, Ragsta was slightly hampered early on and always behind, and Amanda Kanda was reluctant to load and was a bit of a drifter.

Bet 11

2.10 Leicester

Danzoe and Daniella De Bruijn looked closely matched based upon a piece of form in a Yarmouth maiden with the former looking particularly appealing considering he had Lahm Ambasser behind here in a maiden afterwards. The Godolphin rival has won off 86 in a nursery and Danzoe is rated 3 lbs lower here. The other one that may have a chance is Kevin Ryan's Gillburg. A reproduction of his debut third at Nottingham would give him a big chance here off 72 as he had Corporal Maddox (subsequent listed level winner) behind and the two infront are both placed at listed level.

Gillburg 12/1 SJ, 0.4 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).
Danzoe - Gillburg SF, 19.42 Bet 365, 0.2 pt

[fintron]

Bet 12

6.20 Bath

Any Day managed the impressive scalp of Soccer at Lingfield last week and really battled hard against Tom Dascombe's colt to get on top at the line. Although she carries a 6 lb penalty as a result of that win she probably has room for more improvement off what is effectively 74 and bearing in mind she got on top late on last time, this stiff 5f may be ideal. 5/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Just to comment on these two today. Gillburn broke smartly, ran a bit freely through the early stages, but finished his race reasonanbly well. The SF looked as though it may possibly come off at the 1f pole with my two and the winner all disputing, but the winner was ultimately too strong and Gillburn didn't have the pace to go with him. He wins some place money though and a profit was made on the race.

At Bath, Any Day broke slowly and was ridden with a little bit too much restraint for my liking - I would have ideally liked her to have tracked the leader Kings of Leo. She plugged on though, staying on nicely at the end and looks to have more race in her in my opinion, most likely when stepped up in trip.

[fintron]

Bet 13

6.55 Hamilton

Weetentherty is let in on 60 for his handicap debut and Jim Goldie's colt could bely his outsider tag and run a decent race off that mark here. At Musselburgh on his second start he was around three lengths off subsequent nursery winner Military Call and although Maison Brillet was well ahead, on these terms, he has every chance of reversing that form. At Ayr last time out he was again beaten by Maison Brillet and Bailey's Vision was also well infront. However, for what is around a seven and a half lengths beating, this son of Bertolini is getting over a stone from both horses. That, coupled with the move into handicaps, gives reason to believe he could turn the tables on those shorter priced rivals. 25/1 Hills, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

[fintron]

Weetentherty was well beaten and unplaced. I can't make excuses for it as it didn't look as though it would win and the market seemed to have his chances correct by the way he ran. You have to hold your hands up and say just how impressive Colonel Mak was though, he won that on the bridle, a fantastic performance from the 6/4 shot, he looks useful.

[fintron]

Bet 14:

7.50 Haydock

Tom Folan - thought this one was well handicapped off 75 at York last time out, and so must back today now mark has been cut 3 lbs. That York race was a freak result in my opinion, the winner was causing all sorts of problems beforehand, unseating his rider in the paddock whilst Tom Folan herself unseated her ride before loading. If she's calmed down a bit here she could go well. I think she is well handicapped based on her third to Star Rover and third to Fratellino. 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

I thought Tom Folan had lost last night as I checked the result via wap when out and saw she'd come second, but when I logged into my betting account she came up as a winner, and there was a little bit of profit which was a bonus. There was a R4 and it seems the confusion comes from the fact the result was ultimately given as a dead head, but she returns +1.39 profit and is a winner afterall.

[fintron]

Bet 15:

3.30 Ffos Las

I posted Leleyf ahead of her run in a Chester nursery last week and I think the draw hindered her that day. I didn't think it would play much significance in an seven runner race but she raced wide throughout and was hampered, and I think it is best to draw a line through that run.

She has already won a couple of races, including a conditions race at Salisbury. The form of that win gives her the beating of Mijas Playa here on a formline though Kurtanella.

Leleyf was placed in a fillies listed race at Beverley when having Angelena Ballerina and Little Scotland behind, and that looks good form as both are better than 75 rated handicappers - the mark off which Leleyf has to work here. She finished midfield in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Ascot and was closely matched with Absolute Music (4th in listed race since), Jira (won listed race since) and the horses at the front of the field are pretty special. Habaayib placed in the Cherry Hinton the other week week and the second is already a Group 3 winner. She was far from disgraced back in 11th.

Her tenth in the Wetherby's super sprint at the weekend looks a very good bit of form in the context of this race - she had Eternal Instinct behind and that rival has won since handicapping off this sort of mark. 5/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

guys, does anyone object to me posting Jehu into here. Every day I post my nursery bets in this thread but, in a rush, forgot to this morning. I did post it in my flat thread and in the meeting thread (so no aftereventing), but I am extremely busy today. Typically, it has just won at 12's.

If its a problem then ill accept whatever the mods say, but this was a geniune mistake, just not enought hours in the day

[Spooner]

I have no problem with it fin, good call.

We all forget to post in certain threads from time to time

[kevsul]

Originally Posted by fintron

guys, does anyone object to me posting Jehu into here. Every day I post my nursery bets in this thread but, in a rush, forgot to this morning. I did post it in my flat thread and in the meeting thread (so no aftereventing), but I am extremely busy today. Typically, it has just won at 12's.

If its a problem then ill accept whatever the mods say, but this was a geniune mistake, just not enought hours in the day

It is 15/2 on sporting life result page, was this an early price somewhere Fin.


Only want to know as i picked it in the DHRC as well as another 16/1 shot