Fintron's Nursery Handicap Thread

[fintron]

At the start of the season when we were all discussing the areas we were going to specialise in, I stated nursery handicaps as mine, having enjoyed a little bit of success in them last season (Nizhoni Dancer, Calahonda and Ataabas Allure the main three winners I can remember anyway). Unfortunately, they take a while to get started, as the juveniles need several maiden runs in order to qualify for their opening handicap mark.

I don't know whether it was just coincidence that my best winners last season came in nurseries as I only bet in them for a few months but I will be the first to admit I have struggled this season and I have always had nursery handicaps at the back of my mind as the get out of jail card that would put me back in profit for the season.

Right now, I'd be happy if these were to just break even, then I can look at the staking strategy to try boost profits at a later date.

Bet 1:

6.40 Redcar

A reproduction of her debut 4th would give Vilnius every chance in this nursery handicap. She was only three quarters of a length off Avon Valley who won a maiden next time out and was rated 83. Crown was a short head back in fifth and has won two novices races since, and was rated 87 when last seen running in the Queen Mary Stakes (Grp 2) at Ascot. She dropped into selling company at Catterick last time out but that run at least proved she handles this sort of ground. As an April foal she is the youngest of the six remaining participants, but she looks handicapped to win races off 58. Inform Paul Hanagan in the saddle is another plus.

4/1 Coral, 1 pt win.

[bowles10]

Good Luck mate

[Samba_SamPa]

Good luck Fin

I've had a fair bit of profit over the last few seasons by backing top weights in 2yo Nurseries and early season 3yo Hcaps. It'll be interesting to compare how well your selections do v the top weights

[fintron]

Cheers lads

yeah, I've heard that about top weights. I bought a book on nursery handicaps by Malcolm Boyle but haven't touched it yet so need to dig that out asap as well. Trotter gave me a useful link from a guy that had done some good research, although don't have it saved in my favs on this pc with me at the mo.

Bet 2:

7.45 Redcar

Military Call could have been let in lightly with an opening mark of 67 and could go well here for Ed McMahon. A decent fourth on his debut at Nottingham, the third won nto and is rated in the 70's, as is the 5th, and the winner looks pretty useful, following up with a win in a conditions race to land a double. After that he ran at the same track again, finding only Red Avalanche too good. Paul Cole's colt is rated in the 90's and has placed in an Epsom listed race so could be a useful sort. When last seen, Military Call ran at Musselburgh and was a respectable fifth. The winner has placed in a Grp 2 since, the third has landed a maiden and overall, a mark of 67 seems fairly generous. 9/2 Stan James, 1 pt.

[billy the punter]

Good luck mate - you nursery bets last season were top notch.

[Spooner]

Good luck fin

[Trotter]

Good lucj Fin........

I think this was the article I linked to........

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/0...opweights.html


Unfortunately it looks like the guy who runs that 2YO Racing site might be calling it a day. Probably too much work involved - it must take him hours to write those daily Previews and update all the stats.

[billy the punter]

Good start mate with Miletary Call.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Good start mate with Miletary Call.

Cheers mate. I missed that race but caught the earlier one involving Vilnius. I wasn't entirely happy with the way he didn't appear to settle/hung a bit in the early stages, but he looked to have every chance 1f out and took second. wasn't good enough in the end but I thought looked handicapped to win races and happy that Military Call clung on to kick off the first day with a bit of profit.

[fintron]

Bet 3:

8.05 Salisbury

Ragsta looks well handicapped for this nursery handicap, the third of the season, and could land the spoils for Richard Hannon, who also saddles Fleeting Echo. They bet 4/1 the field and the betting indicates this is a close affair, but I think Ragsta could be the one that has the most in hand on the handicapper judging by his 65 rating. He bumped into a very useful type in Radiohead on his Bath debut; Brian Meehan's Johannesburg colt won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes next time out, so although Ragsta was four lengths adrift of the winner, he was far from disgraced, especially since he himself put quite a bit of daylight between himself and the third. He was then upped to todays trip of 6f when appearing at Lingfield and finished a respectable fourth. The winner, Hairspray was narrowly beaten in a listed contest next time out whilst the second, Curtains, won a maiden and has then ran credibly in Group 3 and listed races when narrowly beaten in large fields. Ragsta was only a length or two behind those horses, which you would imagine would be rated at least 80+ now, so looks to be well handicapped running off a much lower mark for Richard Smith here. He won last time out in a seller and although its foolhardy to get carried away with seller form, the win at least proved he handles this trip and ground. 7/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Ragsta was a NR in that last race.

Bet 3

4.15 Musselburgh

The fourth nursery of the season here and Vilnius is turned out here after running at Redcar last week. She looks sure to find races off her present mark, looking well handicapped based on her maiden form. However, she did not settle very well in the early stakes last time out and although she had every chance 1f, was ultimately held, and at the price I don't want to risk a full stake on a horse that may not settle again. My main bet here is thus Eternal Instinct. This Exceed And Excel filly is bred for speed and takes a marked drop in class to figure here for Jim Goldie. Her form figures suggest a patchy profile, but infact, she has been contesting some decent grade races. She won a Haydock maiden on her debut and had todays opponent Goodbye Earl behind. Aalsmeer was back in second that day but managed to reverse the form when a head second at York next time out. However, Eternal Instinct did have Chicita Banana behind and literal interpretation of that formline may suggest Eternal Instinct could beat Vilnius here, as Chicita Banana herself was infront of Vilnius in a Bath maiden in April.

Eternal Instinct ran at this track in a conditions race in June and was not far behind Archer's Road, a horse that has made great strides this season and is rated in the 90's. Most of those infront of Archers Road that day are also useful enough types, rated 80+, so I don't think there is any great shame in a 7th placed finish.

Last time out at Ascot Eternal Instinct was well beaten in a fillies Group 3, but the likes of Curtains, Jira, Absolute Music and Leleyf who beat her home have all ran solid races at listed level or above, and from all of this I have thus concluded that Eternal Instint is well handicapped today.

Eternal Instinct - 4/1 Stan James, 0.8 pt
Saver SF- Vilnius to beat Eternal Instinct, 5.4 Bet 365, 0.2 pt

[billy the punter]

Well done Fin.

[fintron]

Cheers mate. Wondering why I didn't nap it now?

I'm not 100 % sure what the profit should be from this bet. I actually backed with Sporting Bet who were a standout 9/2 this morning and they returned me 4.28 pts profit off a 1 pt single. Then I had the losing saver tricast so I am gonna say a profit of 3.22 pts for the thread bet (which was to 0.8 pt stake). I thought I was gonna get less than that because Sporting Life said there was a 10p R4 but I'm not complaining. Hopefully Stans settled their bets in the same way as Sporting Bet and because of the drift it was 9/2 in the end with them too (before the R4).

[fintron]

Bet 4

2.30 Pontefract

The fifth nursery handicap of the season and quite possibly the toughest to untangle. There are plenty of maiden formlines to work though, mainly concerned with Little Scotland, Diamond Laura and Asif. Although none of those three line up here, they have bumped into several of today's runners at various points and offer an opportunity to try look at lateral form lines.

I have concluded that Little Scotland is better than Diamond Laura and Asif. Given King of Axium beat Little Scotland on his debut he may thus be better than Lady Lube Rye and Ice Cool Lady who have been put in their place by Diamond Laura. However, as the weights are framed differently in handicaps there is now the additional complication of working out who is best handicapped and whether these OR's can lead to reverses in the form on current terms. I do like King of Axium and think he is well drawn and can go well but I am not convinced he is the best handicapped horse in the race. Although his debut win suggests he could be better than a 78 rating, he has gone backwards a little since. He was blitzed by Fratellino at York in a race that few got into, and was then held at Yarmouth by Niran who, judging on his Newmarket win, may be around the 73 mark at present. I trust the trainer to continue his improvement so will have him as a saver, but the one that I think has the best chance off her mark is Ice Cool Lady. Walter Swinburns's Verglas filly was 6th in a Windsor maiden on debut and that race has turned into a winner finding machine with the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 14th all finding races subsequently. She was most closely matched with the 5th who was rated 75 subsequently and has mixed it up with 80+ horses. She was also closely matched with the 7th, Lady Pattern, both in this race, and at Folkestone subsequently, who looks fairly useful judging by her Newbury demolition job last month. Lady Pattern was four lengths infront that day and I think she is better than a 72 rated handicapper, so at the same time I think a 68 rating is lenient for Swinburn's charge here.

Take It To The Max is drawn wide but the form of his third in a Haydock maiden reads well and he may go well off 75.

Ice Cool Lady - 12/1 Stan James, 0.3 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places), 0.15 pt win
King of Axum - 7/1 Stan James, 0.15 pt saver
Take It To The Max - 10/1 PaddyPower, 0.1 pt saver

[fintron]

Originally Posted by fintron

Bet 4

2.30 Pontefract

The fifth nursery handicap of the season and quite possibly the toughest to untangle. There are plenty of maiden formlines to work though, mainly concerned with Little Scotland, Diamond Laura and Asif. Although none of those three line up here, they have bumped into several of today's runners at various points and offer an opportunity to try look at lateral form lines.

I have concluded that Little Scotland is better than Diamond Laura and Asif. Given King of Axium beat Little Scotland on his debut he may thus be better than Lady Lube Rye and Ice Cool Lady who have been put in their place by Diamond Laura. However, as the weights are framed differently in handicaps there is now the additional complication of working out who is best handicapped and whether these OR's can lead to reverses in the form on current terms. I do like King of Axium and think he is well drawn and can go well but I am not convinced he is the best handicapped horse in the race. Although his debut win suggests he could be better than a 78 rating, he has gone backwards a little since. He was blitzed by Fratellino at York in a race that few got into, and was then held at Yarmouth by Niran who, judging on his Newmarket win, may be around the 73 mark at present. I trust the trainer to continue his improvement so will have him as a saver, but the one that I think has the best chance off her mark is Ice Cool Lady. Walter Swinburns's Verglas filly was 6th in a Windsor maiden on debut and that race has turned into a winner finding machine with the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 14th all finding races subsequently. She was most closely matched with the 5th who was rated 75 subsequently and has mixed it up with 80+ horses. She was also closely matched with the 7th, Lady Pattern, both in this race, and at Folkestone subsequently, who looks fairly useful judging by her Newbury demolition job last month. Lady Pattern was four lengths infront that day and I think she is better than a 72 rated handicapper, so at the same time I think a 68 rating is lenient for Swinburn's charge here.

Take It To The Max is drawn wide but the form of his third in a Haydock maiden reads well and he may go well off 75.

Ice Cool Lady - 12/1 Stan James, 0.3 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places), 0.15 pt win
King of Axum - 7/1 Stan James, 0.15 pt saver
Take It To The Max - 10/1 PaddyPower, 0.1 pt saver

Well I'm a bit miffed Ice Cool Lady wasn't good enough to make the frame but at least the stake was recovered through the saver selection. Take It To The Max was very well supported from 10/1 (adv) into 5/1 SP so the signs were there, whereas the other saver King of Axum went completely the other way and was a huge drifter. Ice Cool Lady was pretty solid in the market and nibbled in but was ultimately unplaced, so I'll hope for better in the next race.

[fintron]

Tomorrows nursery comes from the AW at Lingfield.

Bet 5

3.55 Lingfield

Soccer looks a useful colt and this son of Van Nistelrooy could prove a cut above in the rest, rated someway clear of the field on official figures. Tom Dascombe's runner won over course and distance on his debut and although he didn't appear to beat a great deal, the fact the second and third won nto does boost the form a bit. He then ran in a conditions race at Newmarket and ran a cracker behind Monsiuer Chevalier, one of the most progressive juveniles we have seen this season. Richard Hannon's rival is rated in the hundreds and has already won in listed company, and bearing in mind the three and a half lengths that seperated them that day, Soccer's 97-rating here looks fair. The form of that race at HQ has been boosted through the third Iver Bridge Lad, who has won maiden and then listed races on his next two runs, and the fourth, Hearts of Fire, who had previously won the Brocklesby at Doncaster and was only narrowly touched off by Archers Road at Beverley before finishing a very respectable 5th of 22 in the listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot. Soccer was well clear of that pair, and ran respectably when fourth in a listed race at Sandown when last seen. The first two home that day are very useful and the fact he had Fratellino behind looks good as that colt was beaten only a neck in the Windsor Castle Stakes himself. All in all, I think Soccer can give over a stone away to this opposition to win, and Ross Atkinson's claim reduces the weight burden slightly.

Price to be added tomorrow.

[Spooner]

I like this one aswell fin, I can't quite understand why 3/1 (Betfair) 5/2 (Bet365) is being offered? I would have him as quite a hot favourite. Be interesting to see what price he goes off at, good luck.

[fintron]

Yeah, there was some 7/2 matched on Betfair last night but I got to the back of the queue late and my bet went unmatched. I haven't read Tom Dascombe's blog on the RP for a while, but I seem to remember him saying good things about this one at the start of the season though.

I've taken 3/1 on Betfair but for thread purposes and a price anyone can take I'll say 5/2 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by fintron

3.55 Lingfield

Soccer looks a useful colt and this son of Van Nistelrooy could prove a cut above in the rest, rated someway clear of the field on official figures. Tom Dascombe's runner won over course and distance on his debut and although he didn't appear to beat a great deal, the fact the second and third won nto does boost the form a bit. He then ran in a conditions race at Newmarket and ran a cracker behind Monsiuer Chevalier, one of the most progressive juveniles we have seen this season. Richard Hannon's rival is rated in the hundreds and has already won in listed company, and bearing in mind the three and a half lengths that seperated them that day, Soccer's 97-rating here looks fair. The form of that race at HQ has been boosted through the third Iver Bridge Lad, who has won maiden and then listed races on his next two runs, and the fourth, Hearts of Fire, who had previously won the Brocklesby at Doncaster and was only narrowly touched off by Archers Road at Beverley before finishing a very respectable 5th of 22 in the listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot. Soccer was well clear of that pair, and ran respectably when fourth in a listed race at Sandown when last seen. The first two home that day are very useful and the fact he had Fratellino behind looks good as that colt was beaten only a neck in the Windsor Castle Stakes himself. All in all, I think Soccer can give over a stone away to this opposition to win, and Ross Atkinson's claim reduces the weight burden slightly.

Just watched the race back and Soccer can be considered an unfortunate loser there, going down by a short head with the winner getting on top literally at the line. Its hard to make all around Lingfield but Ross Atkinson did a very good job trying to do that here under the weight. Bearing in mind Soccer was giving 20 lbs (taking into account jockeys claim) to the winner he has to be given credit for the way he put up a fight in the finish, and I don't think much of a case could have been made for that winner as Soccer had already given Any Day 10 lbs and a 10 length+ beating at Lingfield on their debuts. I'm hoping it goes down as a freak result and things can get back on the winning trail in the next race.

[Spooner]

Unlucky with Soccer fin, chin up.