Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

[fintron]

Just seen your question Bowles, about laying to a fixed liability vs fixed stake. There are aguments in favour of both approaches I suppose.

I have recorded a similar number of lays in my own thread over the past couple of weeks and I was turned off by the fixed stake route, mainly because of the amount of money you need in betfair to cover the liabilities. Take yesterday for example, you had 15 bets, and the money needed to cover that liability would be very large.

Secondly, some of the successful lays have been large odds with SP's of 25/1 or 28/1. To lay them on BF you may have had to lay at 33/1 or 40/1 and if one of those was a freak and won, then that is a lot of work undone, possibly 50 % of the bank in one go. This is what you were getting at I presume.

So for those reasons I now personally prefer the fixed liability route. I fix my max liability per bet at 10 % of the total bank each day, so would need ten losers to wipe me out completely, but the win % is 86 % I think, so I think this is unlikely.

Your success rates are similiar to mine and although your odds have tended to be bigger, I suppose it may be worth finding out the Betfair SP's and painstakingly working out which approach is better, before the number of bets escalates and it makes more work.

Have you considered only laying them up to a set amount too. My personal limit is 10/1 (and when I broke that on Sat i got stung) but I've read on here other layers have limits even lower than this. As these are handicaps, it wouldn't be a great surprise to see a big odds horse go in at some point, and I suppose laying to fixed liability is better equipped to deal with it.

The only downside to laying to fixed liability is that when the big odds ones do get sunk, you hardly get anything back from them, but there is no right/wrong answer i suppose.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Not many today & hopefully will post up the betfair lay price

Ripon
4.00 Atabaas Allure 7 runs, already raced in a hcap

Lay 7.8 Betfair

Thanks Fintron, I will come back later on the subject

Ripon
4.30 Suzie Quw 6 runs, already raced in a hcap

Lay 32.0 Betfair

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Thanks Fintron, I will come back later on the subject

Ripon
4.30 Suzie Quw 6 runs, already raced in a hcap 9th 20/1

Lay 32.0 Betfair

1st one was a nR, Suzie Quw was well beaten.

[bowles10]

dig some more digging with Massey, this is the July figure since 07 for 3yo's in all aged handicaps, i have checked my selectiosn since the thread started & they are all included.

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	923	112	12.1%	86.8%	285	30.9%	84.2%

July 2007

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	299	38	12.7%	91.7%	93	31.1%	87.8%

July 2008

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	524	61	11.6%	89.4%	155	29.6%	84.6%

July 2009 to date

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	100	13	13.0%	58.8%	37	37.0%	70.6%

The 9 winners i missed were mostly at the start of the month when i had the filters on.

The 12% average SR looks something to take on. Still looking.....

[bowles10]

whilst digging for more info, i have managed to find where the 3yo's do have an advantage & will start from tomorrow a new thread on which ones to back.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

whilst digging for more info, i have managed to find where the 3yo's do have an advantage & will start from tomorrow a new thread on which ones to back.

I dont think i have a choice other than to take this over to the systems page on ATR, so have started a new thread over there link below

Bowles' 3yo handicap system

Hopefully it will continue to be successful

[billy the punter]

Been meaning to post on this thread for sometime Rob.

In the past this subject dictated plenty of my bets. I would put a line through all 3yos against their elders (bar maiden races*), especially before August.

However I noticed during the 2006 season that this way of thinking was damaging. It seems to me that since 2006 3yos have fared better than they previously did. However bad their current record, I'm certain it was worse in the past.

Thesesday I no longer "scrub" 3yo's in all-age handicaps. Although I will only back one I feel is very well handicapped/precocious etc. I now try and treat everyone on it's merits.

From memory I feel 3yo's do better in all-age fillies handicaps.

*3yo's in all-age maiden races have an 80%+ S/R

[billy the punter]

Is it all 3yos in all-age handicaps you are looking at mate?

There was a 1-2 at Southwell today. The "2" was beaten fav though.

[bowles10]

Billy, thanks for the interest mate

I dont include the AW at all

I have picked up a profitable system though on BACKING 3yo's in all aged handicaps albeit it will only produce about 12 bets this month which is already 8 days old! I do need good or better ground though!