Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

[bowles10]

Been thinking about this one recently when viewing some of the ridiculous prices put up by bookies when horses have little or no experience but end up as favourite against thier elders.

I have applied some filters & these are the results

July 2007

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
2 Jul 2007	8:10 Windsor	RUSSIAN EPIC	2-1	4/8	-100	-100
7 Jul 2007	2:35 Sandown	MUTANASEB	9-2	5/17	-200	-200
12 Jul 2007	9:10 Nottingham	GONGIDAS	11-8	1/7	-62	-114
16 Jul 2007	7:30 Windsor	ARABIAN TREASURE	5-2	6/8	-162	-214
19 Jul 2007	5:55 Folkestone	WATER MARGIN	10-3	3/10	-262	-230
20 Jul 2007	7:05 Pontefract	HYPOTENEUSE	3-1	3/8	-362	-250
21 Jul 2007	3:35 Newmarket	BEE EATER	5-2	1/11	-112	-100
27 Jul 2007	5:05 Ascot	FIFTY CENTS	2-1	8/10	-212	-200
28 Jul 2007	2:10 York	CIRCLE OF LOVE	15-8	6/8	-312	-300
28 Jul 2007	4:45 Newmarket	MARKET FORCES	2-1	1/7	-112	-175
28 Jul 2007	8:40 Salisbury	VENTURA	6-4	2/5	-212	-206
30 Jul 2007	8:40 Windsor	MONTJEU'S MELODY	4-1	7/13	-312	-306

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	3	25.0%	74.0%	6	50.0%	74.4%

July 2008

Selections

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
4 Jul 2008	7:35 Salisbury	MISSION CONTROL	9-4	4/7	-100	-100
4 Jul 2008	9:30 Haydock	MERCHANT OF DUBAI	11-8	2/6	-200	-132
5 Jul 2008	2:40 Sandown	MASAALEK	9-2	3/15	-300	-126
5 Jul 2008	4:40 Beverley	HERRERA	5-2	4/7	-400	-226
5 Jul 2008	8:20 Nottingham	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-4	1/9	-175	-91
10 Jul 2008	5:05 Folkestone	CHARLEVOIX	11-8	4/7	-275	-191
10 Jul 2008	8:05 Doncaster	LAMBDA	4-6	5/7	-375	-291
11 Jul 2008	4:55 Newmarket	COOL JUDGEMENT	13-8	3/15	-475	-321
11 Jul 2008	7:25 Newbury	HARALD BLUETOOTH	7-4	1/8	-300	-216
17 Jul 2008	8:10 Doncaster	PERSIAN SEA	6-5	1/8	-180	-144
18 Jul 2008	7:05 Pontefract	FLAM	3-1	5/9	-280	-244
19 Jul 2008	3:55 Newbury	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-2	1/16	170	37
21 Jul 2008	4:30 Ayr	INXILE	6-1	3/16	70	62
26 Jul 2008	8:40 Salisbury	TABLEAU VIVANT	9-4	2/5	-30	40
28 Jul 2008	7:40 Windsor	ORANGE PIP	8-11	8/8	-130	-59

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	15	4	26.7%	91.3%	9	60.0%	96.0%

Combined totals

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	27	7	25.9%	83.6%	15	55.6%	86.4%

[bowles10]

a fairly disappointing return for the favourites at 26% for a win & 55% for win /place

i am considering laying these 3yo's for the month, i suppose this may end up in the systems thread but wanted to highlight it on here first.

Key to this is that the horse has had no more than 4 runs & is racing in an all aged handicap

Possibles today are:

2.10 Haydock Going for Gold
3.30 Yarmouth Iasia (may start fav?)
8.40 Newbury Shangani (currently 2nd fav)

[bowles10]

2.10 Race

Going for Gold is currently 2/1 fav

Handicap debut after 3 maiden runs, 1 run this season 3rd behind Hidden Brief at Newbury.

Runs off OR 71

Main opposition is Princess rainbow at 3/1 or Prelude around 3/1 also

Bet will be Going for Gold lay 2pts @ 2.84 BF

[fintron]

interesting, will watch with interest

[stewartd14]

Hi Rob,

I hope you don take this the wrong way, as its just an observation.

To me, there looks nothing out of the ordinary there that would make these favourites worth laying. If you were to add around 10-15% to the lay odds (realistic betfair odds), AND take off commission, you would actually have made a loss laying the favourites in 2008 using those results stated.

Or am I missing something?

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

2.10 Race

Going for Gold is currently 2/1 fav

Handicap debut after 3 maiden runs, 1 run this season 3rd behind Hidden Brief at Newbury.

Runs off OR 71

Main opposition is Princess rainbow at 3/1 or Prelude around 3/1 also

Bet will be Going for Gold lay 2pts @ 2.84 BF

Going For Gold wins so we start with a loser. Oh well, based on last 2 years results, there will be winners & losers so we have to accept them.

There isnt a great deal of profit to be had as i have analysed the above which shows if you laid at SP:

July 07 - 12 races, 11/8, 5-2 & 3-1, to 1pt stakes would be +3.13pts profit (yield 26%)

July 08 - 15 races, 9/4, 7/4, 6/5, 9/2, to 1pt stakes would be +1.3pts profit (yield 8.6%)

will look at the filters which are currently

- 4 runs or less (in career)
- SP up to 15/2
- 5 runners or more
- all aged handicaps
- no selling races
- no class 6

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by stewartd14

Hi Rob,

I hope you don take this the wrong way, as its just an observation.

To me, there looks nothing out of the ordinary there that would make these favourites worth laying. If you were to add around 10-15% to the lay odds (realistic betfair odds), AND take off commission, you would actually have made a loss laying the favourites in 2008 using those results stated.

Or am I missing something?

yes i would need to consider the higher odds & commission. I am trying to seek out where the value stands. Those making their hadicap debuts at short prices are what i am after taking on.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by bowles10

yes i would need to consider the higher odds & commission. I am trying to seek out where the value stands. Those making their hadicap debuts at short prices are what i am after taking on.

An alternative to quoting lay prices at SP+10% is to quote Betfair SP as anybody can take that price and its probably a fairer relfection if things. BSP's can be found at this link http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Possibles today are:

2.10 Haydock Going for Gold
3.30 Yarmouth Iasia (may start fav?)
8.40 Newbury Shangani (currently 2nd fav)

I will take each race as it comes i think

The other 2 listed above were beaten 2nd favs. Neither were placed.

I havent got the stats for 3yo's generally, only favourites.

[bowles10]

todays possibles

Sandown 2.20 Sharpened Edge

4 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today

Sandown 4.35 Alpen Glen

2 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today

Sandown 5.05 Strathcall

7 runs to date so doesnt qualify anyway

Interesting to see 3 handicaps all headed in the market by 3yo's!

Doncaster 2.30 Battle Planner

5th LTO, 2 runs to date, already made debut in a hcap so no lay today

Doncaster 4.10 Crime Writer LAY if start fav

3 runs, handicap debut, currently between 1st & 3rd favourite.

Warwick 3.45 Jiggalong

3 runs, hcap debut, currently 3rd fav.

Will look at tonights meetings later. I wanted to highlight all the possible runners to see how they get on.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

todays possibles

Sandown 2.20 Sharpened Edge 3rd 9/2F

4 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today

Sandown 4.35 Alpen Glen Unpl 15/8F

2 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today

Sandown 5.05 Strathcall 2nd 5/2F

7 runs to date so doesnt qualify anyway

Interesting to see 3 handicaps all headed in the market by 3yo's!

Doncaster 2.30 Battle Planner 2nd 7/2F

5th LTO, 2 runs to date, already made debut in a hcap so no lay today

Doncaster 4.10 Crime Writer LAY if start fav Last 3rd fav

3 runs, handicap debut, currently between 1st & 3rd favourite.

Warwick 3.45 Jiggalong Last 7/2co fav

3 runs, hcap debut, currently 3rd fav.

Will look at tonights meetings later. I wanted to highlight all the possible runners to see how they get on.

an interesting day with 6 runners, 5 of which started fav & all beaten. Perhaps there is mileage in this! Perhaps i should just lay them all!!

will keep posting them up anyway.

[bowles10]

Tonights runners, lets see how many get beat again

Salisbury 7.35 Larkham

possible fav, has had 5 runs to date, won on handicap debut

Salisbury 9.10 Saharan Royal

Possible fav, hcap debut, 3 runs to date

This race also has 3 other 3yo's in it:
Some sunny day hcap debut 3 runs
Caster sugar 10 runs to date
Sapphire rose 7 runs to date

Haydock 6.40 Red Rosanna

Possible fav, 11 runs to date

also in same race:
Mazzola 21 runs to date

Haydock 8.15 Halstatt

Possible fav, 2 runs to date, already ran in a handicap

Beverley 6.20 Dark Ranger

Possible fav, 11 runs to date

Beverley 8.30 Suitably Accoutred

Possible fav, 7 runs to date

in same race:
Astroleo 5 runs to date

Beverley 9.00
What a fella 11 runs to date
Chipolini 9 runs to date

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Tonights runners, lets see how many get beat again

Salisbury 7.35 Larkham 3rd 13/8 fav

possible fav, has had 5 runs to date, won on handicap debut

Salisbury 9.10 Saharan Royal Last 15/2

Possible fav, hcap debut, 3 runs to date

This race also has 3 other 3yo's in it:
Some sunny day hcap debut 3 runs 2nd 6/1
Caster sugar 10 runs to date 1st 15/2
Sapphire rose 7 runs to date 9th 11/1

Haydock 6.40 Red Rosanna 8th 7/2 JF

Possible fav, 11 runs to date

also in same race:
Mazzola 21 runs to date 7th 13/2

Haydock 8.15 Halstatt 3rd 9/4 jt fav

Possible fav, 2 runs to date, already ran in a handicap

Beverley 6.20 Dark Ranger 3rd 9/4 2nd fav

Possible fav, 11 runs to date

Beverley 8.30 Suitably Accoutred 10th 3/1 jt fav

Possible fav, 7 runs to date

in same race:
Astroleo 5 runs to date 3rd 9/2

Beverley 9.00
What a fella 11 runs to date 11th 20/1
Chipolini 9 runs to date Last 50/1

13 3yo's ran in all aged handicaps last night

12 defeated
1 won @ 15/2
4 were favs all beaten

[bowles10]

I will continue to monitor results

Todays 3yo's in all aged handicaps

2.40 Sandown
Crackdown 7 runs already ran in a hcap
Mirrored 6 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav
Roman republic 4 runs already ran in a hcap

2.45 Beverley
Mullglen 7 runs already ran in a hcap
Kheylide 15 runs already ran in a hcap

5.10 Haydock
Fivefootnumberone 13 runs already ran in ahcap
Lucky art 8 runs already ran in a hcap
Red Rosanna 11 runs already ran in a hcap

5.45 Haydock
Block Party 4 runs already ran in a hcap
Gassin 3 runs hcap debut possible fav
River Dee 11 runs already ran in a hcap

3.35 Leicester
Whooshka hcap debut 1 run possible fav
Mrs Beeton hcap debut 2 runs possible fav
Simpliifcation 6 runs already ran in hcap
Visite Royale 3 runs hcap debut (2nd fav)
Mejala 5 runs already ran in hcap

4.10 Leicester
Key signature 9 runs already ran in a hcap

8.20 Nottingham
Gilden age 6 runs already ran in a hcap

9.20 Nottingham
Night knight 6 runs already ran in a hcap
Youve been Mowed 16 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav
Straboe 3 runs hcap debut

Plenty of runners today & those where we have more than 1 runner is a concern however will be interesting to see how many go in.

So far

Selections 22
Won 2
Lost 20

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

I will continue to monitor results

Todays 3yo's in all aged handicaps

2.40 Sandown
Crackdown 7 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 10/1
Mirrored 6 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav 3rd 9/2F
Roman republic 4 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 6/1

2.45 Beverley
Mullglen 7 runs already ran in a hcap 8th 10/1
Kheylide 15 runs already ran in a hcap 3rd 7/1

5.10 Haydock
Fivefootnumberone 13 runs already ran in ahcap 6th 11/2
Lucky art 8 runs already ran in a hcap Last 33/1
Red Rosanna 11 runs already ran in a hcap 1st 6/1

5.45 Haydock
Block Party 4 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 9/2
Gassin 3 runs hcap debut possible fav 5th 9/4F
River Dee 11 runs already ran in a hcap 4th 7/1

3.35 Leicester
Whooshka hcap debut 1 run possible fav 4th 8/1
Mrs Beeton hcap debut 2 runs possible fav 7th 5/1
Simpliifcation 6 runs already ran in hcap 6th 11/1
Visite Royale 3 runs hcap debut (2nd fav) 2nd 6/1
Mejala 5 runs already ran in hcap 8th 10/3F

4.10 Leicester
Key signature 9 runs already ran in a hcap 3rd 8/1

8.20 Nottingham
Gilden age 6 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 9/2

9.20 Nottingham
Night knight 6 runs already ran in a hcap 8th 14/1
Youve been Mowed 16 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav 5th 4/1F
Straboe 3 runs hcap debut 10th 50/1

Plenty of runners today & those where we have more than 1 runner is a concern however will be interesting to see how many go in.

So far

Selections 22
Won 2
Lost 20

Today 21 3yo's ran in all aged handicaps, only 1 won!! 6/1 shot Red Rosanna. 4 were favourites, all beaten.

So far

Selections 43
Won 3
Lost 40

[bowles10]

Sunday - no expected favourites from this lot

Bri 3.00
Zebrano 9 runs already ran in a hcap
Pokfulham 10 runs already ran in a hcap

Bri 4.30
Golden Flight 5 runs already ran in a hcap
Mystic touch 5 runs already ran in a hcap

Ayr 4.40
Hosanna 6 runs already ran in a hcap

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Sunday - no expected favourites from this lot

Bri 3.00
Zebrano 9 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 12/1
Pokfulham 10 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 14/1

Bri 4.30
Golden Flight 5 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 15/2
Mystic touch 5 runs already ran in a hcap 9th 13/2

Ayr 4.40
Hosanna 6 runs already ran in a hcap Last 33/1

5 losers today out of 5

As some of these are big odds, i am wondering if i should put a limit on the lay bet, say 20pts

so 20/1 shot would be 1pt lay, 2/1 shot would be 10pt lay?

This would limit hitting a big price winner ?

Selections so far 48
Won 3
Lost 45

Any thoughts?

[bowles10]

Plenty of action on Monday

Musselburgh
3.45
Blown it 8 runs, hcap
Secret Venue 11 runs, hcap, poss fav

Brighton
2.30
Elusive ronnie 18 runs, hcap
Private Parson 11 runs, hcap

4.30
Venture capitalist 6 runs, hcap
Green enndeavour 4 runs, hcap

5.30
Hayleys Girl, hcap, 5 runs

Ripon
8.50
Regal Lyric 6 runs, hcap
veronicas boy 11 runs, hcap

Windsor
7.30
Olynard 6 runs, hcap
Captain carey 11 runs, hcap

8.00
State banquet 2 runs, hcap
Hip hip hooray 14 runs, hcap
Three steps to heaven 6 runs, hcap

9.00
Admirable duque 9 runs, hcap
Onemix 6 runs, hcap
Royal Arthur 5 runs, hcap
Wee sonny 5 runs, hcap

Perhaps only 1 possible fav, & none making their hcap debut. How many can we get beat tomorrow. Personally i now dont back 3yos in these handicaps after the results of the last few days

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Plenty of action on Monday

Musselburgh
3.45
Blown it 8 runs, hcap 5th 12/1
Secret Venue 11 runs, hcap, poss fav 1st 5/1

Brighton
2.30
Elusive ronnie 18 runs, hcap 12th 16/1
Private Parson 11 runs, hcap 13th 10/1

4.30
Venture capitalist 6 runs, hcap 2nd 3/1 (2nd fav)
Green enndeavour 4 runs, hcap Last 28/1

5.30
Hayleys Girl, hcap, 5 runs NR

Ripon
8.50
Regal Lyric 6 runs, hcap 7th 14/1
veronicas boy 11 runs, hcap 4th 12/1

Windsor
7.30
Olynard 6 runs, hcap 3rd 6/1
Captain carey 11 runs, hcap NR

8.00
State banquet 2 runs, hcap 3rd 7/4 Fav
Hip hip hooray 14 runs, hcap 5th 16/1
Three steps to heaven 6 runs, hcap 7th 25/1

9.00
Admirable duque 9 runs, hcap 5th 4/1
Onemix 6 runs, hcap 2nd 7/2
Royal Arthur 5 runs, hcap 6th 50/1
Wee sonny 5 runs, hcap 4th 11/4 fav

Perhaps only 1 possible fav, & none making their hcap debut. How many can we get beat tomorrow. Personally i now dont back 3yos in these handicaps after the results of the last few days

16 bets today

15 lays landed

1 winner @ 5/1

Selections so far 64
Won 4
Lost 60

any thoughts from my staking question yesterday?

[bowles10]

Not many today & hopefully will post up the betfair lay price

Ripon
4.00 Atabaas Allure 7 runs, already raced in a hcap

Lay 7.8 Betfair