Curragh - 27/6/09

[mowgli77]

Curragh 3.40 Pretty Polly Stakes
Only two 3 year olds in the race that could be open to any amount of improvement and quite a shock to see the Aidan O Brien horse at 25-1, that looks big considering the stables domination of Group races and also with the race being over in Ireland.

Jakarta Jazz and Beach Bunny don't look good enough on what they have achieved so far although the trainer of Jakarta Jazz has won this race twice previously.

Katiyra has raced in three Group 1 races and was well beaten in two of them, both on good ground. It's hard to know if it was the ground or class that caught up with the horse or both. It was 3rd in a French Group 1, beaten 3l but on good to soft ground.

Look Here ran a fine race over 12f when finishing just behind Ask and Youmzain but 10f looks on the quick side considering the pedigree and the fact it was 3rd in the St Leger last year to Conduit. Dropping back in trip may be a mistake and most previous winners had been running over 10f before taking this race. A stat in its favour is the last 4 winners were favourites and this is likely favourite today.

Lush Lashes has some top class form but has been disappointing this season. It had the excuse of heavy ground two runs ago but just seemed to run flat last time out and there were no obvious excuses for such a poor performance. Previous multiple Group 1 winner yet still out at 7-1 in the betting and that doesn't inspire confidence.

Dar Re Mi has only had the 1 run this season when finishing 2nd to Crystal Capella at York in a thrilling finish, showing a great attitude and battling all the way to the line over 10f. It has placed group 1 form to Lush Lashes and Zarkava but both those races were over 12f. It looked fit in the paddock at York and was well supported and there is no shame about losing to the progressive Crystal Capella that has 6 wins on the bounce.

I have doubts about the trip for Look Here and doubts about the ground for Katiyra and have had Dar Re Mi as one to follow since that day at York and have been eagerly awaiting its next run. John Gosden has been out of form but he still had a Group 2 winner in Bronze Cannon recently and Rainbow View put in a better and more encouraging performance. Jimmy Fortune replaces Frankie Dettori from last time and has ridden the horse 4 times with one victory but early in its career.

The obvious problem with the race is the lack of front runners to set an early pace, every horse in the race either likes to race prominently and track the leaders or is held up in midfield, a tactical nightmare but could possibly play into the hands of the speed horses if it turns into a sprint.

Suggested Bets:
10pts WIN Dar Re Mi 4-1 Stan James
2.5pts EW Roman Empress 25-1 Coral 1/4 odds 1st 2

[MrMal]

2.10 - 20 Runner Handicap pays 4 places
Not sure about the favourite here and its record on the going.
I have decided to go for Curl Cat to place at 3/1
Has form on the going and has been placed in it's last two races.
Drawn 13 so should be able to get in a good position.
I like McDonogh as a jockey so hopefully he is up for this.