CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[mowgli77]

5pts EW Sports Line 16-1 Bet365 - Arkle
Was going to back this for todays race at Leopardstown, missed the price but confidence boosted with the money for it. Having only 2nd race over fences, very impressive so far, very progressive, won on soft and heavy and never out of the first 2, unlikely to be out of first 2 today and market says this horse will win today and be cut for the Arkle. I see it being about 10-1 for the Arkle after this next race. Will go to Cheltenham with plenty of improvement expected and can run the main fancies close such as Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee.

[mileni4uk]

Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365, Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365, Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?

I guess they don't rate the rivals they have seen run today, doesn't make much sense any other way.

[mileni4uk]

It's a strange market for the Arkle this year. Fav is a horse, who fell lto and we don't know if he'd won or lost against Sizing Europe. Have a sneaky feeling those two are weak favorites.

[AK1979]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Am I stupid or what.. How can Bet365, Sporting Bet and Stan James shorten Zaarito for the Arkle after his fall today? How exactly did he enhance his Arkle credentials with this fall?

Have they really?

Like Mowgli says, maybe they feel he would have been competitive had he stood up. Falling isnt exactly the best prep for the festival though and must put him at a disadvantage.

He has drifted on betfair to about 26.0

[bowles10]

somersby is still the best jumper we have seen for the arkle cant fault it's 2 wins

[diamond1924]

Originally Posted by bowles10

somersby is still the best jumper we have seen for the arkle cant fault it's 2 wins

Somersby is increasingly looking likely without running. I'm still as interested in Bedlam Boy whom I trust Ferdy will be looking to "get experience into" between now and March.

[bowles10]

Champion Hurdle

i should advise i have just taken 90.0 on Betfair for 1pt on American Trilogy from Nicholls stable. This was a horse Nicholls really rated as a 4yo but didnt show the promise on a racecourse until last season winning twice in 7 starts. Won the county hurdle at last years festival by 11L making it a procession and possibly making a mockery of a 136 rating. It then went to Aintree and narrowly failed to beat El Dancer in a decent novice hurdle. Now AT is due out at Cheltenham on Saturday in a handicap hurdle over 2m 1f which it should walk if fit. Nicholls can bring horses on from 5 to 6 and make them even better and stronger. I just have a feeling the 90.0 may look a value hunch if it wins Saturday and Nicholls decides to run in the CH especially after Celestial's performance last weekend.

[bowles10]

Some notes after the weekend meeting at Cheltenham

I didnt note anything in the novice hurdle, the time was extremely slow for a novice event here and 12 secs slower than the competitive hurdle later on the card. Pistolet Noir didnt live up to expectations and Baccalaureate won easy in the end.

In the novice chase, Hey Big Spender jumped well and was a trend horse for me. That was off OR 138 and i think we may see it back at the festival having a go at a decent novice prize. The horse needs soft ground and will get 3m. Fav Doctor Pat was going ok before a blunder put paid to his chances. Another to note was ernst blofield who may be worth another chance falling at the 8th.

In the 3rd race, the 2m 5f h'cap, the 1st 3 places were filled by Cheltenham specialists of which are all capable of wining at the track. The Sawyer won the race for the 2nd year running off same mark and loves the soft ground.. Private be doesnt seem to get past anything and always seems to be the bridesmaid, i wouldnt put too much confidence in this one apart for EW money. Seven is my number wasnt right and perhaps the travelling plans affected it as it was en route to Donny earlier in the day.

The Argent Chase proved again for me that Cheltenham only suits certain horses. Carruthers looked odds on to win at the turn but the forgotten horse Taranis proved again its liking for the course by winning in a canter. Joe Lively showed a return to form on its favourite track finishing only 7L behind the winner and was giving weight away to both the 1st 2, so a very good performance for me.

I wonder if Restless Harry will get the 3m at the festival but he couldnt do any more than push up that famous hill. An impressive performance for me and one to follow.

The Cleeve Hurdle featured a number of horses i have followed over the years. It was one of them Tidal Bay that came back to form. A former Arkle winner, had lost its way over fences and couldnt live up to the rivals in Kauto & Denman. Perhaps, in another lifetime, TB may have won a decent chase or 2. Anyway, it travelled off the pace for the 1st half of the race and then moved up well off the turn to run up that famous hill like it did when it won the Arkle. Another repeat performance & i think its nailed on for a place in the World Hurdle. Time for Rupert ran another game race and is another that likes it here, and another to note for a cheltenham handicap again is Kayf Aramis who ran well in 5th.

I didnt see the last race. Although mccoy had Stradbrook in front and dropped tamely away. This horse is still capable of a big race IMO


Horses to note:

Hey Big Spender
Tidal Bay
Joe Lively
Time for Rupert
Stradbrook
Restless Harry
Kayf Aramis
Ernst Blofield

[mikel arteta]

does anyone know if any of the bookies are going NR no bet yet ?

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mikel arteta

does anyone know if any of the bookies are going NR no bet yet ?

no normally about 2 weeks before at the best!

[mikel arteta]

Originally Posted by bowles10

no normally about 2 weeks before at the best!

thanks Bowles10

i haven't seen much NH racing this season, not really interested tbh,
although i've watched the Cheltenham meetings over the last few months and Joe Lively done me for my placepot on Saturday, it would have been a great result but the jockey bottled out over the last 2 fences [lost about 6 or 7 lengths] it would have been a great placepot

[markysimmo]

I read and hear today that AP Mc Coy is on Denman for the Gold Cup..

[billvernon]

Hi Guys - noted that a horse called - Made in Time - ran at Ffos Las on soft ground and recorded a 6 length victory in a time of 3m.48s This is a fantastic time it was only 7 runners though .J.P.McManus has now bought him on reccommendation of A.P McCoy as he thinks he is a good horse the trainer Rebecca Curtis thinks he is one of best she has in yard.He is to run this weekend in the Bumper Bet totepool At totesport.com Winter Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 2 at the end of the card at Newbury which has 24 runners - good stat for champion at cheltenham - If made in time runs well and wins then I should look at this horse as well even though not irish trained. It will be aimed at the champion bumper at cheltenham. And grab 20/1 e/w at williamhills.

[NewPunter]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Champion Hurdle

i should advise i have just taken 90.0 on Betfair for 1pt on American Trilogy from Nicholls stable. This was a horse Nicholls really rated as a 4yo but didnt show the promise on a racecourse until last season winning twice in 7 starts. Won the county hurdle at last years festival by 11L making it a procession and possibly making a mockery of a 136 rating. It then went to Aintree and narrowly failed to beat El Dancer in a decent novice hurdle. Now AT is due out at Cheltenham on Saturday in a handicap hurdle over 2m 1f which it should walk if fit. Nicholls can bring horses on from 5 to 6 and make them even better and stronger. I just have a feeling the 90.0 may look a value hunch if it wins Saturday and Nicholls decides to run in the CH especially after Celestial's performance last weekend.

Any news on this horse Bowles?

[Gingertipster]

Schindler's Hunt looks a stand out bet @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) each way for the Ryanair. I'd expect him to start around half that price.
Showed he's back to his best last weekend, just failing to stay 3 miles in soft ground. We know he goes well at Cheltenham. Close 3rd to Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes last year. Former goes for the Gold Cup, latter not in the same form so far this term yet is half the price of Schindler's. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea could be good horses but are yet to prove it at this level (need to improve). Barber Shop has yet to put in the performance connections feel he's capable of (though has promised to). Joncol may be better on softer ground.
Schindler's Hunt hasn't found that much under pressure at times which is why I've taken each way (don't normally with AP bets). Another possible way is win only and lay him back two out when going well (travels well).

[Gingertipster]

Another Ante-Post bet:
Queen Mum
Kalahari King 6/1 each way (T, L, WH)

Am a great fan of Master Minded, backed him at 12/1 AP for first win in this. However, hes not put up that class of performance for over a year now. And that's before a ribb injury.
Want to be against Twist Magic, may even plant himself at the start. Possibly needs to lead to produce his best. Yet to show form at Cheltenham and found little in the past.
Big Zeb, does he jump well enough to win a Champion? Does he travel (away from Ireland)?
Was going to back Petit Robin, before I saw Kalahari. Henderson's horse is much better suited to left-handed course, ignore Ascot. 16/1 looks good each way value. Placed in this last year. Just feel Kalahari King has a much better chance of actually winning it.
Ferdy's charge was mightily impressive at Donny. Sprinted clear of a good competitive handicap field. More in hand than distances suggest. Was not a fan of KK before that but has certainly improved. Goes on a sound and easy surface, good record at the festival too (placed twice). Just hope he remains fit and well, Ferdy is a past master at getting them spot on for March.

[mileni4uk]

Paul Nicholls on Inchidaly Rock: "I'm looking for a confidence-booster for him. I know he'd fallen by halfway in the Argento Chase, but Ruby was very impressed with him up to that point, so a good run here would seal his place in the RSA line-up."

I know few of you are on him for the RSA like me, so good signs here they aren't thinking of the 4 miler

[markysimmo]

After Denman's problems today he has drifted out to 3s and Kauto into 4/7 for the Gold Cup..

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

Paul Nicholls on Inchidaly Rock: "I'm looking for a confidence-booster for him. I know he'd fallen by halfway in the Argento Chase, but Ruby was very impressed with him up to that point, so a good run here would seal his place in the RSA line-up."

I know few of you are on him for the RSA like me, so good signs here they aren't thinking of the 4 miler

Think Mileni, what that commment meant was: If IR ran Harry close today he'd go for the RSA. But the NHC (4 miler) if he's well beaten. Sadly, it may be academic, as he was seen by someone I know entering the ambulance horsebox afterwards. Don't expect it to be life threatening, but I hadn't seen him jump right handed before. So there may have been a reason for that.