CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[mileni4uk]

I am talking up those two horses' chances, because when Jack was fit Henderson said he will be his Ryanair horse. Then this year pre-season he said he can go to the top. Punchestowns was only outstayed by Big Bucks and he is a high class horse, who doesn't lack speed and might just be a 2m5f horse over fences at this stage. While the first thing Nicky said about Barbers pre-season was "he'll struggle against the very best" and "he's facing a tough season".

P.S. You know if Mikael D'Haguenet goes for the Ryanair nothing beats him, right

[Gingertipster]

Think the form figures in races of 20 to 22f compared to further is a bit (unintentionally) misleading. As Barbers shop was on the upgrade and at a much lower level then. His last three efforts have in fact been at or near his best form ratings. Though I grant you, there is a chance of more to come once back in trip.

Punchestowns is not a bad call from Mileni. More likely to go for the RSA, but if the ex French thing that won at Kempton finds the expected improvement.... Henderson might end up with first and second favourites for the race. Probably equally effective at the shorter trip, would not be a surprise to see Punchestowns switched. Though they are different jockey's rides anyway.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

I am talking up those two horses' chances, because when Jack was fit Henderson said he will be his Ryanair horse. Then this year pre-season he said he can go to the top. Punchestowns was only outstayed by Big Bucks and he is a high class horse, who doesn't lack speed and might just be a 2m5f horse over fences at this stage. While the first thing Nicky said about Barbers pre-season was "he'll struggle against the very best" and "he's facing a tough season".

P.S. You know if Mikael D'Haguenet goes for the Ryanair nothing beats him, right

RE Henderson's quote about BS, was he taking about the 'very best' as in the very best chasers in the sport as a whole, i.e. including Kauto and Denman?

This is a list of current official chase ratings...how many of these do you think will go for the Ryanair?

name	chaserating
Kauto Star (FR)	195
Denman (IRE)	182
Master Minded (FR)	178
Imperial Commander (IRE)	174
Twist Magic (FR)	173
Neptune Collonges (FR)	170
Voy Por Ustedes (FR)	169
Or Noir de Somoza (FR)	168
The Listener (IRE)	167
Planet of Sound (GB)	166
Madison du Berlais (FR)	166
Deep Purple (GB)	166
Monets Garden (IRE)	165
Noland (GB)	165
Albertas Run (IRE)	164
Well Chief (GER)	163
Poquelin (FR)	161
Petit Robin (FR)	161
Mon Mome (FR)	160
Tidal Bay (IRE)	160
Jack The Giant (IRE)	160
Herecomesthetruth (IRE)	159
Barbers Shop (GB)	158
The Tother One (IRE)	158
Nacarat (FR)	158
Air Force One (GER)	158
Roll Along (IRE)	157
Cloudy Lane (GB)	157
Halcon Genelardais (FR)	157
Kalahari King (FR)	157
Long Run (FR)	157
Fix The Rib (IRE)	156
What A Friend (GB)	156
Master Medic (IRE)	156
Taranis (FR)	155
Star de Mohaison (FR)	155
Dont Push It (IRE)	155
Crack Away Jack (GB)	155
Breedsbreeze (IRE)	154
Snoopy Loopy (IRE)	154
Takeroc (FR)	154
Monkerhostin (FR)	153
Calgary Bay (IRE)	153
Chapoturgeon (FR)	153
Gwanako (FR)	153
French Opera (GB)	153
Free World (FR)	152
Gungadu (GB)	152
Cornas (NZ)	152
Mahogany Blaze (FR)	152
Nozic (FR)	152
Racing Demon (IRE)	152
Ornais (FR)	152
Our Vic (IRE)	152
Tamarinbleu (FR)	152
Shining Gale (IRE)	152
Possol (FR)	151
Ollie Magern (GB)	151
Money Trix (IRE)	151
Darkness (GB)	151
Killyglen (IRE)	151
Imsingingtheblues (IRE)	150
Big Fella Thanks (GB)	150
Briareus (GB)	150
Araldur (FR)	150
My Will (FR)	150
Pablo du Charmil (FR)	150
Tartak (FR)	150
Something Wells (FR)	150

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by fintron

name chase rating
Kauto Star (FR) 195

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

I don't think Henderson's best horse for the Ryanair is Barbers Shop. Both Punchestowns and Jack The Giant are potentially 170+ horses, who could end up there while Barbers will always be a 160+ horse and I doubt he'll improve on that.

I don't think you'd need to be much more than a 160 to win this year.

Jack The Giant hasn't been seen since last Novemeber - is there enough time for him?

Punchestowns will surely go RSA, not sure he'd have the toe to win a typical Ryanair.

[billy the punter]

And by the way, I think BS comfortably ran above his mark (156) in the King George.

Just one last point, it's not so much the drop in trip that will improve him, he will be avoiding the very best (as Fin says). This more than anything is why the Ryanair is the best option.

He has the pace to cope with the drop to 2m5f so why not go for the weaker G1? He is a million in the Gold Cup.

(three guesses who I went with today for me ante-post Ryanair tip )

[fintron]

I was gonna ask you Billy but wasn't sure when you'd be posting on here - given it was only in print this morning (no copies in Smiths again - ordering in like Phil is doing appears my only option of reading your column now). Kind of guessed you might have gone on him though given you wrote off several contenders in the post in your ante-post thread.

RE Kauto Star - an OR of 195 is eyeopening like Mileni says. What is the record rating ever allocated? Can't be many if any that break 200?

[diamond1924]

OMG, we're all turning into BTP fans now, I had stopped buying the paper a couple of months ago in favour of the Weekender, now getting both! Support the PL!

I know the King George win was visually sensational but 195 is surely a knee jerk reaction. Maybe there's 13 pt gap between Kauto and Denman around Kempton for obvious reasons, ie. Denman can't hack it there, but certainly not at Cheltenham.

I haven't had too many ante-post bets so far. I always put on a £20 accy on what I consider the "invincibles", so this year I'm on Big Bucks, Master Minded, Kauto and Dunguib. Odds are still around 25/1 the foursome. I don't think the professionals (why am I an amateur, my money staked is real?) would approve but it's paid out several time over the years.

Everything else for me is still in the melting pot, there will be plenty value still around come March.

[bowles10]

A horse tht hasnt been mentioned yet for the Ryanair would be Kalahari King as it wont be good enough for the Queen Mother i feel, but is for me an improver who could step up in distance. The horse has won twice in 3 attempts at 2m 4f, & its never going to make a 3m chaser so its options are limited. It may go to Aintree or Punchestowns instead of the festival but i feel it would have a chnace in what could be an open ryanair this year.

the 36.0 i got previously is looking ok now with the horse at 14/1 in the market.

[diamond1924]

I really like Kalahari but he needed time to improve through handicap chase company this year but hasn't even started yet. With his season starting late he could be a force at the three big spring festivals

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by bowles10

A horse tht hasnt been mentioned yet for the Ryanair would be Kalahari King as it wont be good enough for the Queen Mother i feel, but is for me an improver who could step up in distance. The horse has won twice in 3 attempts at 2m 4f, & its never going to make a 3m chaser so its options are limited. It may go to Aintree or Punchestowns instead of the festival but i feel it would have a chnace in what could be an open ryanair this year.

the 36.0 i got previously is looking ok now with the horse at 14/1 in the market.

I originally thought the same, when looking at the Champion Chase (Petit Robin bet) Kalahari King was one prominent in betting that I thought may not run due to him being possible suited to the Ryanair - I agree, I don't think he is a genuine 2miler.

However, it looks like he won't be going for the Ryanair. Recently he has drifted to a massive price in the Betfair Ryanair market, even if there was the slightest chance of him running someone would be snapping up the current Betfair price.

Don't wish to be the bearer of bad news mate, but thought it better to let you know.

[BH]

With no sign of jump racing in the next few days, a chance to have an early look at the novice races at Cheltenham.

Supreme Novice Hurdle 2m

Finians Rainbow	104
Dunguib	103
Saludos	101
Menorah	98
Loosen My Load	98
Hollo Ladies	98
Pepe Simo	96
Manyriverstocross	96
Some Present	96
Like Minded	93
The Betchworth Kid	92
Luska Lad	92
Sitting Tennant	91
Quantitativeeasing	90
Judge Roy Bean	90
Bellvano	89
Tito Bustillo	88
Inventor	86
General Miller	85
Morning Supreme	85
Oscar Whisky	84
Ghizao	84

Dunguib is the ante post fav, best price 6/4 at the moment. You cant argue with the form and hasnt been tested as yet. The best form for me so far has been from Finians Rainbow, his debut win was very impressive and the heavy ground beat him last time at Newbury, sure to be better going at the festival although the longer disatnce race later on may be his target. Menorah seems to be improving all the time, if he can settle which he should do with a strong pace he will be in the shake up. We are still to see the likes of Rite Of Passage and Lush Life so things could change drastically.

Neptune Novices Hurdle (Ballymore) 2m 5f

Reve De Sivola	105
Quel Esprit	104
Finians Rainbow	104
Restless Harry	104
Tell Massini	99
Fionnegas	98
Manyriverstocross	96
Some Present	96
Shinrock Paddy	94
Royal Charm	93
Enterprise Park	93
Like Minded	93
The Betchworth Kid	92
Luska Lad	92
Quantitativeeasing	90
General Miller	87

On the second day we have the old Ballymore race over 2m5f, Reve De Sivola's win over Restless Harry and Finians Rainbow looks very good, although they finished close up it still looks solid form. Finians Rainbow will appreciate better ground of the three. Quel Esprit is the Irish hope here, unbeaten in two races, the last one over 3 miles so he looks an out an out stayer. Not been hard pressed yet so hard to know how good he is, may go for the longer race. Tell Massini has been impressive in his wins and looks to be still improving and horses like General Miller, Quantatitiveeasing and Peddlers Cross are all horses with a lot of ability.

Triumph Hurdle 2m

Pistolet Noir	98
Me Voici	98
Olofi	96
Carlito Brigante	95
Westlin Winds	92
Alaivan	89
Sang Bleu	89
Mille Chief	84
Stormy Weather	83
Notus De La Tour	82
Royal Mix	80
Advisor	80
Barwell Bridge	80

The juvenile race looks to be very competative as usual at this stage and Pistolet Noir impressed at Cheltenham when winning from Barazan in the heavy, has changed stables since to Paul Nicholls and not sure if he goes straight to the festival. It will be different ground then so its not cut and dried. Me Voici's trainer Nick Williams should be up on the form having trained Pistolet Noir and he was impressive when beating Sang Bleu last time, improving fast. Olofi is one I like but has to find something with PN and the Irish have Carlito Brigante who won at Musselburgh before landing a very good race at home beating the hot pot Alaivan who was thought to be a world beater.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 3m

Reve De Sivola	105
Quel Esprit	104
Tell Massini	99
Fionnegas	98
Kennel Hill	98
Shinrock Paddy	94
Enterprise Park	93
Bobby Ewing	87
Silver Kate	87
Chamirey	85
Malakai	82
Valentine Vic	81
For The Staff	80
Vico	79
Rhyl Accord	79

Pretty much the same field as the Neptune race but this is over 3 miles and may suit Quel Esprit better, Tell Massini and Kennel Hill looks as though they want 3 miles too. French horse Stravinsky Dance has yet to run and is well regarded so one to watch out for.

Ante Post bets;
Supreme : Menorah 1pt (10/1 Bet 365)
Neptune : Finians Rainbow 1pt (20/1 Paddys)
Triumph : Pistolet Noir 1pt (12/1 Blu Sq)
Albert Bartlett : Quel Esprit 1pt (6/1 Paddys)

[fintron]

Arkle - Bedlam Boy

I have a theory which may be complete poppycock but at the available odds I'm gonna give it a test anyway. The current snowy weather is wreaking havoc in Britain at the moment - and it is probably the case that trainers are not being able to get as much running into their charges as they would like. I'm not clued up on training facilities - it may be that there are horse treadmills or indoor gallops or something, but either way, I heard Southwell are to stage an all bumper card cos trainers want to give some of their horses a run. If this is true then several candiadates for Cheltenham may be lagging behind in their preperation. The festival is only 9 weeks away, the current snow shows no sign of letting up, so that is possibly a month less prep time for some runners. With that in mind I've backed one that won't care whether the snow stays or not as he's been running on Redcar beach - Bedlam Boy. Trained by Ferdy Murphy, who saddled up the runner up (Kalahari King) in this last season he's been keeping his fitness up racing on the sand, and if that does turn out to give him a slight fitness edge over some runners nearer the festival who knows. Those horse has started his chasing career well, hacking up in two novice events without, according to the trainer, coming off the bridle. My fitness theory may be pish, but the trainer said this morning on the Morning Line this one could improve beyond his hurdles mark in this sphere and undoubtedly is open to more improvement. Previous track form not great, but at least he's seen the track before and the price allows an element of risk. 50/1 with Hills, EW.

[markysimmo]

Bit of an Ante-Post tipple that I got emailed about at work today for Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices Hurdle

This is a useful site in the build up



http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/races/supreme-novices-hurdle-form.php



extract....(Hills go 25s on Oscar Whisky most are 16s (14s to 20s)). Dunguib should win but 6/4...wont be doing my brains with 4 long days to go!


Supreme Novices 2010 Form Guide
The horse on everyones lips is Dunguib, last years winner of the 2009 Champion Bumper, successful in all his novice hurdles to date and is already a short priced favourite for the leading novice race at the Cheltenham Festival. He has done everything on the bridle so far and he looks exceptional and it maybe worth gettting an antepost price for the 2011 Champion Hurdle.



The Nicky Henderson trained Oscar Whisky blew away his rivals on his Hurdling debut at Newbury just before Xmas, he was an unbeaten Bumper horse and he jumps very quickly and may emerge as a real contender for this race come March.



On Christmas day at Kempton Menorah beat the much touted Nicky Henderson Bellvano and this has seen changes in the ante post Supreme Novices betting. The race was run at a steady pace and this did suit the winner who won very well and this paid a very nice boost to Bobby Ewing who beat Menorah at Doncaster.

25’s (William Hill’s) ante post about this horse (Oscar Whisky) for the Supreme Novices – apparently it’s trading well below this on Betfair (which implies it’s set to run, barring injury)

[Trendsman]

Horse i will be following closely is Paul Nicholl's runner Tataniano. fits all the trends

1). Trained by Paul Nicholls
2). Aged 5 or 6 years old
3). French bred - British trained
4). Won or finished second LTO

[billvernon]

These are just rough idea of what I think so far

Reckon Barbershop will run a good race in Ryanair but I like the Paddy Power Trend - winner usually stands a good chance so looking at Tranquil Sea 7/1

Nick Mordin at nickmordin.com says Menorah ran a speedy Blinding race and looks like improving reckons can beat Dunguib.Worth E/W at 10/1

Imperial Commander e/w in Gold CUP likes Course likes left handed and goes well fresh good for a place I think.And 4 is better than less than 2's on the two stars price on Imperial is 16/1 at the moment.1/4 odds give 4 . Also 4 in betting w/o Kauto & Denman


Tell Massini already beat most of the protaganists in his race so good favouite - form boosted by other horses winning there recent races and distance he won stands out.

Somersby ran a good 3rd at Chelt Festival last time and looked a good horse in last run looked classy beat Crack Away Jack - he is a stayer and Henrietta says future Gold Cup horse She knows how to train a horse and he stays which is what you need at Cheltenham.Good Jumper up with the pace and stays looks a good sign to me so my e/w .

Champion Hurdle is wide open and looking a cracking competition so many horses I am sticking with two proven Chelt and Champ Hurdle race horses Punjabi who was running well FTO Last in his race and Celestial Halo as likes Cheltenham and runs well in the big ones needs a smidgen of luck in running and to have a good day.Will be in best form If P.Nicholls can help it LOL.

Forpadedeplasterer e/w in Champion Chase as Arkle winners do ok in this race Tidal Bay was poor last year did not run ran in Ryanair showed iffy . previous Arkle winners placed or won in the this race.Forpady has a great E/W history.To have so many 2nds in profile gives him an outside chance.He is consistent.

Guarde Champetre and Nina Carberry in Cross Country for Edna Bolga /JP McManus - great Combination and proven course winner and weight carrier he is another spot the difference.Put your dosh on him

Volar Vadette in Mares race she has ran against big boys and is looking good E/W against Whiteoak and Quevega

Carlito Brigante beat Alaivan fair and square and looked to have plenty in the Tank Reckon good for E/W at the price Alaivan was a reckoned HotPot

I like Pandorama as a battler and think a good outside bet for RSA

[fintron]

RE Bedlam Boy and the possibility of the Arkle, the trainers commented on on the horse in an article on the RP earlier today.

FERDY MURPHY believes that Bedlam Boy could surprise a few people in the Irish Independent Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
The Tony Ambler-owned runner, a 40-1 shot for the Arkle, is unbeaten in two starts this season and Murphy sees similarities between him and Kalahari King, who was runner-up in the 2009 Arkle.

"He's very, very well. It looks a really hot Arkle this year with others much higher rated than himbut we were in the same boat with Kalahari King last year as he was forgotten until just before the Festival," the trainer told At The Races.

"He jumps really well and his two runs this year have been really, really good. He hasn't beaten a lot but has never come off the bridle and the way he has applied himself to his races has been very professional.
"Usually before an Arkle you'd be looking for a minimum of four runs but if we got another run into him before Cheltenham I'd be happy. I think he'd run a good race."

Murphy also intends to send another Tony Ambler-owned chaser to Cheltenham in the shape of recent Doncaster winner Watch My Back.

He added: "I'm looking at the Mildmay Of Flete over two miles five for him round Cheltenham. He ran a really good trial at Cheltenham [in October] and Graham [Lee] did really, really well to stay on him as he was blinded at a fence and still wasn't beaten too far byPoquelin."

There has been some small bits of money from him and the 50/1 has been nibbled at into 40/1 with Hills. Bet 365 are 25/1 from 40/1.

[mowgli77]

I was discussing Bedlam Boy in another thread with RB but I could not get a price back then before its last run on any sites or Betfair. Murphy had picked this out as a possible Arkle contender in the Weekender and felt it was better than Kalahari King was at this stage of its career. Will look at getting a bet on this if there are some decent prices about.

[fintron]

yeah, he wasnt in the arkle betting until 10 am saturday morning. Having heard the trainers comments on the morning line earlier that day i was gonna email betfair and get him on the list but someone must have done the same that morning as when i checked back on at 10 am he had appeared on the list with a new backer wanting 220.0. They didnt get that matched though and the layers were only offering 28.0 so when Hills were the first bookmaker to price him up, at 50s around dinner time, it didnt hang around for long. Last time i checked he was 40s with hills and on betfair though, so it must only be coppers on him.

Originally Posted by mowgli77

I was discussing Bedlam Boy in another thread with RB but I could not get a price back then before its last run on any sites or Betfair. Murphy had picked this out as a possible Arkle contender in the Weekender and felt it was better than Kalahari King was at this stage of its career. Will look at getting a bet on this if there are some decent prices about.

[billvernon]

Bedlam Boy is a 9 year old - I know people dont like trends to much but horses older than 7 do not win this race much in the Arkle - a stat proven to me by the loss by Kalahari King last year 2009 he cam a close 2nd . I do not think either Captain Cee Bee 9 yo or Sizing europe 8 yo will win either .Been looking at Tatiano and Somersby both a good age both won trials Tatiano is french horse trained in Uk looks good .