CHELTENHAM 2010 - Ante Post bets & discussion

[fintron]

guys, has anyone got any thoughts on Rare Bob? I'm not interested in either of the big two at 9/4 ante-post for the Gold Cup and was looking down the list for an improver that could step up as a lively outsider nearer to March.

To date he has mainly raced over 2m 4f ish but on the occasions he has been stepped up to around 3m or more he has excelled, winning novices race at Navan 3m, placing in the Irish national over 29f and then winning a G1 novices race over 25f at Punchy when last seen. So it looks like he has the stamina for a Gold Cup especially if Denman goes hell for leather from the front.

The Irish handicapper rates him 155 so if he gets a similar sort of rating over here it looks like he's gonna have to improve quite a bit more to figure but he is open to more improvement for sure. Lack of course form a worry but you can't have everything when backing them at 100/1.

I know you jumps boffs have been studying for the big races for a while now, so has anyone got any thoughts on this one? I heard the Lexus was a target and the Gold Cup was his long term aim, but he isnt in the betting for the Lexus so dunno whats happened since.

[mileni4uk]

Dessie Hughes stable tour: "He was a bit weak this year, so we took our time with him and only brought him back in a month ago. He’s back in work and we hope to be able to run him at Christmas, maybe in the Ericsson Chase. It’s possible that he’ll end up a Gold Cup horse, as he may only have to find maybe 8lb of improvement, and he’s a young horse, so he’s capable of doing that. He stays and has pace. If we can give him enough time to get himself together this could be his year. He’s always been backward, but last year he held himself together quite well. If he builds on that, he could be a good horse this year."

[mowgli77]

Hurricane Fly is injured, won't be running at Leopardstown and not sure to make it to Cheltenham either. I was already going to place 2 ante post bets on this race and just got them on now as this news has been announced:

5pts WIN - Punjabi to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 Bet365)
I felt Punjabi travelled well for a long way before fading the other week at Cheltenham and the trainer had already said it would come on for the run. It has winning Cheltenham form and will be prepared with this race in mind and be fully fit by March. I think a peak Punjabi could win this race again and have backed it to do so.

5pts WIN - Go Native to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 W. Hills)
Sublimity is a favourite of mine and ran well at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth but Go Native was even classier on the day and also has winning Cheltenham form from last years festival. I am impressed by the way it travels but then seems to find another gear when asked to do so right at the end of its races. I can see this still full of running up the hill and being involved in the finish in March.

[mileni4uk]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

5pts WIN - Go Native to win Champion Hurdle 2010 (12-1 W. Hills)

On this one Paul Carberry will have to hit the front exactly at the right moment, because if he hits it too early he'll be caught and if he hits it too late, he won't get there. He is the man to do it though, probably the best judge of pace in racing

Can't help, but curse my luck on Hurricane Fly's injury, becuase he will beat Go Native anyday they meet and there was only one winner in the Champion for me

[mowgli77]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

On this one Paul Carberry will have to hit the front exactly at the right moment, because if he hits it too early he'll be caught and if he hits it too late, he won't get there. He is the man to do it though, probably the best judge of pace in racing

Can't help, but curse my luck on Hurricane Fly's injury, becuase he will beat Go Native anyday they meet and there was only one winner in the Champion for me

I have Hurricane Fly in my 10 to follow as I thought he was the most likely Champion Hurdle winner and as I said in the Kempton thread beat Go Native easily when they met, twice I believe. What did you think of todays ride by Condon? He said he got to the front too soon and the horse idled, I thought he was probably a bit over confident on it and didn't really start pushing for an effort until he realised Starluck was closing the gap. I was impressed with Starluck, full of running at the end of the race and just what a horse needs for that final push up the Cheltenham hill. Go Native will be another Harchibald, came cruising on the bridle just like that one but managed to just hold on and as you say needs timing to perfection. It will be hard to beat at Cheltenham if given the perfect ride.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

Go Native will be another Harchibald

I couldn't help thinking this myself although I though Condon was late on him and did get complacent, although he still found little. I really thought Starluck was gonna pip him at one point
Would be happy if I had 12/1 though still for the Festival

[mileni4uk]

Well, your 12/1 is value whatever happens mate. I think Paul Carberry is the man for this horse. He can go at the exact right moment and win the race for you. Don't think Go Native is another Harchibald. This fella is full of speed and will get a nice cover at Cheltenham and be produced at the right moment. He jumps well too. I continue to stand by my position that the novices are the ones to beat and that's why my bets are on Medermit and Hurricane Fly. If they weren't then Somersby would have lost to Crack Away Jack simple as. Condon apologized to Noel Meade on TV saying he hit the front too soon. He kept looking behind and should have asked the horse more serios questions instead. From the three there I can assure you Starluck and Binocular won't be winning the Champion Hurdle.

[mowgli77]

Supreme Novices Hurdle

I've just taken 3 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Betfair. It will be hard for anything to beat Dunguib but I'm looking at these as possible trading opportunities/free bets and placing them before the big novice hurdles race tomorrow at Newbury. I have already backed Some Present but I'm not too confident about that bet. The horses and odds are:

Manyriverstocross 44.0 Betfair
Finians Rainbow 34.0 and 30.0 Betfair
Reve De Sivola 150.0 Betfair

I like the look of Alan Kings horse (Manyriverstocross) and think this one could go places while the Henderson horse (Finians Rainbow) could be a very good horse if managing to take the step up in class in its stride. Not sure about Reve De Sivola but had a few quid at the price and will look to try lay it off at less odds if possible. Have posted about the Newbury race in the relevant daily thread.

[fintron]

Ryanair - Barber's Shop - third to Kauto Star and Madison du Berlais in the King George on Boxing Day and prior to that placed in the Hennessy when fourth to Denman. On both occassions he failed to see out the trip fully, which was also his downfall when I'd backed him in the 2009 Gold Cup and he travelled well before not seeing out the distance fully. With that in mind, looks an ideal candidate for 2m 5f here, Imperial Commander who ran Kauto so close in the Betfair chase is a better horse than he showed last time out and loves Cheltenham so is a big danger, but the pair were closely matched on Paddypower running last season and like Imperial Commander, I think Barber's Shop has improved, he has just not been able to fully translate that into wins having been campaigned over inappropriate trips. 8/1 Hills.

[fintron]

Gold Cup - As posted in the Hennessy Key Race thread at the time, was very impressed with What A Friend in the Hennessy, thought he ran a blinder and was better than the bare margin of defeat to Denman, and may have got much closer and even won had he not made a mess of the last. Took 75.0 on him, he boosted the form by winning the Lexus yesterday.

Am also on Petit Robin on Billy's advice, took 25/1.

[Gingertipster]

Fin,

Would usually be against backing each way ante-post but with the two very short market leaders and What A Friend idling badly in front too, it might be a better EW than win bet.

Not sure about Barbers Shop, seems over rated to me and certainly needs to improve. Can see the trip suiting him but not as much as some believe. Upsides the stayer Niche Market two out in the Hennessy and still upsides at the line. Hardly a performance that shouts non-stayer. Can see that he could be better over slightly shorter, but he didn't find much at (amongst other places) Kempton either. May be a strong traveller whatever the distance. Unless the race cuts up (very possible) can't see him being good enough.

[mileni4uk]

I have Denman at 8s and currently the only market I am interested in is w/o the top two, because they are in another league although it would be interesting to see Imperial Commander and Cooldine back at Cheltenham and back to their best. The dark horse for me remains Glencove Marina, who should be having his first run of the season sooner rather than later and if all goes well he might be the one to back w/o the top two. Wouldn't stop you taking a bit of 250 for win and 19 for place. That should be easily tradable after the betfair fish (currently laying) realizes he is fit and back running.

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

Fin,

Would usually be against backing each way ante-post but with the two very short market leaders and What A Friend idling badly in front too, it might be a better EW than win bet.

Not sure about Barbers Shop, seems over rated to me and certainly needs to improve. Can see the trip suiting him but not as much as some believe. Upsides the stayer Niche Market two out in the Hennessy and still upsides at the line. Hardly a performance that shouts non-stayer. Can see that he could be better over slightly shorter, but he didn't find much at (amongst other places) Kempton either. May be a strong traveller whatever the distance. Unless the race cuts up (very possible) can't see him being good enough.

Saying he was upsides Niche Market doesn't really tell the full story, he was cantering all over him and passed him with ease when making his initial challenge. Yet Niche Market (who looked beaten for a place) regained 3rd at Barbers Shop's expense. He did see out the trip but not as well as others.

Personally it was actually the King George, not the Hennessy, that led me to finally make a discision on the horse regarding his stamina. The fact he could not pull away from the legless Nacarat cannot be ignored.

Like I say he does stay but I doubt 3m is his optimum trip.

I don't think he finds a lot either (and he is a horse I've never played - always felt he was underpriced) and perhaps that is why he looks like a non-stayer a lot of the time.

Regardless of whether you or I are correct with this one the market will definitely believe the drop in trip will suit and therefore he shows up there is no way he will start at 8/1, even if he pulls up on his prep (if he has one).

Re the Gold Cup, I'm not sure EW is the right bet. You only really have one place to aim for if opposing the big two. EW w/o KS or E/W w/o the big two would be more interesting surely?

[billy the punter]

Originally Posted by fintron

Ryanair - Barber's Shop - third to Kauto Star and Madison du Berlais in the King George on Boxing Day and prior to that placed in the Hennessy when fourth to Denman. On both occassions he failed to see out the trip fully, which was also his downfall when I'd backed him in the 2009 Gold Cup and he travelled well before not seeing out the distance fully. With that in mind, looks an ideal candidate for 2m 5f here, Imperial Commander who ran Kauto so close in the Betfair chase is a better horse than he showed last time out and loves Cheltenham so is a big danger, but the pair were closely matched on Paddypower running last season and like Imperial Commander, I think Barber's Shop has improved, he has just not been able to fully translate that into wins having been campaigned over inappropriate trips. 8/1 Hills.

I don't think Imperial Commander will run in the Ryanair mate.

I think they will be tempted too much by the Gold Cup.

NTD is convinced he stays and was very bullish about the GC after his ding-dong battle with KS.

[mileni4uk]

I don't think Henderson's best horse for the Ryanair is Barbers Shop. Both Punchestowns and Jack The Giant are potentially 170+ horses, who could end up there while Barbers will always be a 160+ horse and I doubt he'll improve on that.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by Gingertipster

Fin,

Would usually be against backing each way ante-post but with the two very short market leaders and What A Friend idling badly in front too, it might be a better EW than win bet.

Not sure about Barbers Shop, seems over rated to me and certainly needs to improve. Can see the trip suiting him but not as much as some believe. Upsides the stayer Niche Market two out in the Hennessy and still upsides at the line. Hardly a performance that shouts non-stayer. Can see that he could be better over slightly shorter, but he didn't find much at (amongst other places) Kempton either. May be a strong traveller whatever the distance. Unless the race cuts up (very possible) can't see him being good enough.

Probably would have been better to back WAF EW, although to the stake my bet is too, it doesn't really matter either way - its an insignificant amount, so little so I will not trade out even on raceday and will just let it run (if he makes it to Cheltenham). I thought that he may start around the 10/1 mark on the day like barber's shop did last year (and he hadnt won a race as glamorous as the Lexus), so by taking 75.0 now I'd be getting value. backing Kauto (my idea of the winner) or Denman ante-post doesn't interest me because you need to stake big to make it worthwhile don't you.

Re the Ryanair, it looks a weak race to me and like Billy said in his ante-post thread there are doubts over plenty of those towards the head of the market. Half of the problem with ante-post is knowing which race each horse is targeted at isn't it (especially with many of the Ryanair contenders also in the Gold Cup betting) but with Barber's Shop it seems like they will go down the Ryanair route. Theres no point going for the Gold Cup again as he just didn't stay last time. I have backed him in the hope of him having a prep run somewhere around February time around 2m 4f - 2m 5f ish - perhaps at Ascot like Voy Por and Gwanako did last season in the Betfair Chase, as Barber's Shop is proven on that track too (albeit over hurdles track). I checked Henderson out and saw he had the winner in the Ryanair in 2006, and gave Fondmort a prep run at Lingfield in a race named the Ascot Toteport Chase. Am I right in thinking this was run in Surrey whilst Ascot was being redeveloped? So the trainer isn't against giving them a little warm up run the month before, and if he does that with Barber's Shop I was thinking he'd come in from 8's and again give me a good bet come March time.

[fintron]

looking back over that the Ascot Chase is the same as the race Voy Por won last season, just a different sponsor? Both run around two weeks into Feb.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Saying he was upsides Niche Market doesn't really tell the full story, he was cantering all over him and passed him with ease when making his initial challenge. Yet Niche Market (who looked beaten for a place) regained 3rd at Barbers Shop's expense. He did see out the trip but not as well as others.

Personally it was actually the King George, not the Hennessy, that led me to finally make a discision on the horse regarding his stamina. The fact he could not pull away from the legless Nacarat cannot be ignored.

Like I say he does stay but I doubt 3m is his optimum trip.

I don't think he finds a lot either (and he is a horse I've never played - always felt he was underpriced) and perhaps that is why he looks like a non-stayer a lot of the time.

Don't think there is much between us with Barber Shop Billy. Yes, he was moving a lot better than Niche Market 3 out, ditto for Nacarat. But he always travels whatever the trip. As I said, I think the Ryanair trip will suit, just not as much as those who don't think he stayed the Hennessy / King George distance. Yes, I would think he might start a little shorter than 8's, due to public's perception, owner and trainer of the horse and not ability. Any horse who gets there should be a little shorter anyway, due to the non-runner possibility factored in to ante-post bets.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by billy the punter

Re the Gold Cup, I'm not sure EW is the right bet. You only really have one place to aim for if opposing the big two. EW w/o KS or E/W w/o the big two would be more interesting surely?

Tricky one Billy, especially now I remember Nicholls saying on RUK after the race, he will talk to his owners about possibly missing the Gold Cup and go straight for Aintree. Was anything said in the Racing Post today? If a possible non-runner would definitely not risk each way (or win in that case). can't find a without Kauto market. 9/2 without the big two does not strike me as a good each way bet at this stage either. Form does not look that great with Money Trix in the mix and Notre Pere well below form once more. Though he could still improve on that form.

If I thought without the two was value, I'd much rather do it to win. Because unlike the normal "win" bet; if he were to throw the race away by idling badly, he could still "win" the bet.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by mileni4uk

I don't think Henderson's best horse for the Ryanair is Barbers Shop. Both Punchestowns and Jack The Giant are potentially 170+ horses, who could end up there while Barbers will always be a 160+ horse and I doubt he'll improve on that.

Interesting view.

Over 3m+ I would tend to agree that Barbers Shop may peak at around 160. He certainly has plenty to find with Kauto and its pointless running him in the GC where he has to find upwards of a stone to figure. But check out his form over 20-22f......

Dec 06 Ascot 22f MdH 1/16 OR -
Feb 07 M'Rase 22f NvH 2/10 OR 136
Feb 08 Kemp 21f C4Ch 1/8 OR -
Mar 08 Chel 21f C1NvHcHcL 2/10 OR 136 (Jewson)
Apr 08 newb 20f NvCh 1/4 OR 142
Nov 08 Chel 21f C1HcChG3 2/19 OR 142 (Paddy Power)

If you compare that with his form figures outside of this distance range: 132UR1241743 it seems he is far more consistent over 2m 5f ish.

Looking at form figures is simplistic I know, but it is a starting point, and I don't think further improvement from Barber's Shop can be ruled out. He has been running in unfavourable conditions of late. For example in the King George he has done well to take third in my opinion. The fantastic Kauto is an unstoppable machine, he had 17 lbs in hand on the field and thus can be scratched from the post race analysis as he's in a league of his own, but looking at the rest of the field Barber's Shop has finished inbetween Madison du Berlais and Nacarat, both of whom were rated superior and both of who were running over a CD they relish - Nacarat winning the Racing Post Chase and Madison du Berlais the Levy Board Chase both over 24f like the King George. So for him to finish inbetween both of those when 3m probably stretches him, he deserves credit in my opinion. If he is able to set new boundaries over a trip that doesn't ideally suit then its logical to think he can improve further at 21f which may turn out to be his optimum, his profile certaintly doesn't suggest the improvement has levelled out over that trip and there isn't anything in the 2m 5f division to be ultra scared of just yet I don't think.

I agree Punchestown's is interesting, but he still hasn't beaten anything over fences so has a long way to go for all he acts at Cheltenham, and Jack The Giant has a massive absence to overcome given the ligament damage. I thinkthe yard favoured Jack The Giant over Barber's Shop for the Paddypower back in 2008 but things have changed since then and whilst Jack the Giant has been laid out on the treatment table Barber's Shop has continued to improve. The thing with Jack the Giant is that he is stepping into unchartered territory with regards to the trip too, not only will he need to build up his fitness he also has to bed in at a new trip, its a big ask for him to develop into a 170+ chaser even if he was third in the Arkle. Like Tidal Bay I suppose, he was a terrific chaser pre-injury but since he has come back hasn't been the same and hasn't hit the heights he would have perhaps done with a clean career.