Best bet of the day - Sat - 11/7/09

[fintron]

2.35 York

I think the pace could come from stalls 15 (Billy Dane) and 8 (Fesko) but that the stronger pace may be towards the low drawn numbers so I've looked for one drawn low here. Tartan Gigha was a monster price at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and ran too badly to be true, but if he can bounce back then he has a good chance here. He was drawn high in that race and all of the first three home were drawn in the lowest third of the field, so hopefully that run can be ignored on that basis. Prior to that he hacked up in an Epsom handicap in this grade, a win that looks all the more impressive in view of the Bunbury Cup result today as Plum Pudding chased him home in that Epsom race and went on to win off 105 at Newmarket this afternoon. Tartan Gigha is suited fine by the trip, and is probably okay going wise unless the heavens open tomorrow morning as all of his form has come on good ground or quicker. I think he should be able to track his stablemate Fesko here and give himself a chance inside the closing stages. The yard are in decent nick which is another plus. EW.

[Irishbugger]

3.00 Curragh 'Golan Girl'
Terrible ride last time out, should have won easily, been waiting for this one since, wins this.

[Spooner]

York 15:10 - Re Barolo 0.5pts e/w

Twenty runners line up for this handicap over 1m 2f (88yrds) and ill select Re Barolo for the Marco Botti stable. He was campaigned on the all-weather over the winter with some success and has since turned that form onto the flat, 3rd at Redcar and then 4th LTO at Ascot which was a solid run, should enjoy the the 10f trip, an interesting jockey booking in Louise-philippe Beuzelin who takes off 5, As always this looks a hard race to solve but Re Barolo should run well at a price.

[chris34]

2.50 Ascot
Cesare was second to paco boy at royal ascot and had aqlaam behind him that day, not sure that can be reversed especially with cesare drawn better, can cope with the small cut in the ground but not too much and always runs a good race at Ascot aswell!

1pt win cesare

[Lucky-15]

York 15.45

Friston Forrest has had three runs this season winning once and placing the other two in very competitive races, two starts ago lost by a short head to Hendersons Carracicola in a storming finish who went on to win the Queen Alexandra at Ascot.
LTO a 2.5l third in the Northumberland Plate behind a beltin front running ride by A Culhane on Som Tala over two furlongs further, running off the same mark of 108 today and dropped down to the optimum trip of 14f with faster ground I think hes capable of winning this.

1pt win

[BillyHills]

245 Nottingham : West Leake EW

Interests me this one for a couple of reasons, for those that dont know West Leake is a small village near Nottingham and the horse has ran here a lot, I suspect the connections live locally. Was drawn on the wrong side last time so ignore that run, drawn 16 today I expect a much more prominent run and the ground will be more to his liking, (ran poorly in soft twice) as long as the heavens dont open in the midlands.

[Ebor]

3.10 York

Moonquake (the only C&D winner in the race) is my selection for the John Smith's Cup in what should be a terrific race. A winner at York on his penultimate start over similar conditions, he got hit with an 8lb penalty for that but then ran very well off 103 NTO in the Wolferton stakes at Ascot finishing 2nd by a neck. Runs off the same mark again today and should go very close. The high draw isn't great but I think this is one of the reasons his price is quite attractive to me. Dettori and Godolphin have a great record at York and both in very fine nick indeed. I'm hoping for at least a place in what is quite a large bet for me!

MOONQUAKE E/W @ 12.0/3.61

[punterpete]

3.10 York
Albaqaa
ew

Trainer is in form and has a good record in this race. Has been running well in his races recently without winning and was second to Kavachi last time out. Rises 4 lbs in the weights for that result but is still competitive and Mr Fahey will have him primed and ready for todays renewal.

[WoodyTHFC]

York 3.10 Albaqaa 0.5 pts e.w I nearly backed this lto having put him up before to see him just out of the frame but was put off by his wide draw that day so left him, only for him to then run a cracker and only just find one too good. Once again he has a poor draw but I’m going for him today. His trainer’s record in this race is top notch and interestingly the last two winners of this race he has had, followed a very similar path to this one by starting off at pont at the start of the season. This one was third that day before then his fourth at the track for which he is better off with the winner today. However his run lto despite his draw just indicated his really solid form again and despite another wide draw I can see him close again.

[south_eastern_ram]

8.30 Salisbury - Screaming Brave

Comes into this race with very good form, winning in grade 6 races at Lingfield and Yarmouth. Following that up he came 3rd in an identical race at Pontefract at 9-5. Today he is dropped down to 8-13 which should see him improve on that effort. Loves the firm ground, can stay the trip so should go close in this relatively weak grade 5 race with Bagber being the main rival.

[Ebor]

Originally Posted by Ebor337

3.10 York

MOONQUAKE E/W @ 12.0/3.61

HI BH,

Am I allowed to amend this to my supernap? No problems at all if not.

[AK1979]

205 York - Mr Smithson - each way BANKER PLEASE

Looks fairly treated off a mark of 72 based on what he has achieved so far, beaten only by some decent looking youngsters. The blips in his form have come when poorly drawn at Beverley and when out of his depth last time. Todays company will be more to his liking and has a decent apprentice on board to take a further few lb's off. BlueSq, Stan James and sportinbet go out on a limb at 16/1 when he is as short as 8/1 with Coral so thake one of those bigger prices

[wizzkid walter]

4:30 Curragh - Famous Name - Back

Hasn't been outside the first 3 in his last 9 races. Always travels well, and usually finds plenty under pressure. The races he's been beaten in have been by horses such as New Approach, Curtain Call, Casual Conquest and Vision D'Etat, all of which have winning form at the highest level. Based on his 117 rating, Famous Name is going to take all the beating in the world here, and I think he will be hard to stop

1pt win

[Falbrav]

GALA CASINO STAR 2.35 York.

1 point win.

Again allowed to race off a mark of 84, and with having the form and ability to run a big race, and with the trip and ground not being of any concerns, he should be able to run his race and therefore be involved in the finish.

[Verisimilitude]

RE BAROLO 3.10 York. 0.5 point each way.

The race should be run at a decent pace, so that should be suitable. The trip and ground wouldn't be a worry and so if finding the gaps he should be able to get involved in the outcome of this race. The jockey's worth his claim and gets in off a mark of 102 again, so all looks in place for a decent run at decent odds.

[Sandgrounder]

Chester.4.40.Mark Johnson has only one runner at this meeting, and that is Act Of Kalanisi .came 2nd. last time beaten by the smallest of margins. and only went up 2lbs. for that effort.
Mark Prescott's Aleatricis won five-times last season, and it lookes like it might be returning to form. perhaps next time.

[Rainbow]

esteem machine 510 asc. 1 pt win. in and out performer and 5f not ideal on the whole, but this race should be run to suit him well and so the trip shouldnt be a problem today. handles the ground and has the back form to run well. big price and luke morris decent jockey.

[RussP]

2.55 Chester
10 left for this 1m2f handicap and 3 lto winners in the field. However, they all look opposable and I'll the chances of the top 2 left but the one I'm on is:
Mujaadel (10/1 Ladbrokes) - Looks a big price to me here. Let's get the negatives out of the way, modest strike rate & trip an unknown, although likely to stay on this sharp track. On the positive side, interesting jockey booking with a top 3lb claimer taking the ride opposed to stable jockey. That's a pointer, especially off top weight whilst the ease in grade and another 2lb down in mark is a plus. Inside berth so good early position is likely, and that is important. Ground looks fine and this seems to be value in a race where I think the biggest danger may actually be Royal Amnesty. Nice EW chance.
EW

[StuSimmy]

14.25 Chester - Regal Parade

This horse's best form comes over 7f, has had 10 trips over the distance with 5 of those being wins. Only 1lb higher than its last win which was over this trip when it won off 106 at York beating Mia's Boy by a neck. Was only 9th LTO at Ascot but it was over 6f.

[Boulder5111]

A2.20 Black Rain 0.5pt E/W

Michael Wigham is a shrewd trainer and he's one to keep an eye on since when his horses are flying, he oftern runs up a great sequence. I think he's just coming into a purple patch now and I'll take a chance on Black Rain at around 25/1.

The horse was having his first run for the trainer LTO but presumably the trainer wasn't happy about something and has given the horse a nice rest before todays race. Back on more suitable ground today as well.