Ayr Sat 20/9/08

[fintron]

Ayr 2.50

Underworld will probably be dangerous hailing from the Mark Johnston yard and with some decent handicap form of late. However, its uncertain he will go on bottomless ground, something that cannot be said for Ted Barron's Zero Tolerance. The latter loves a slog in mud and has repeatedly shown a liking for soft ground throughout his career. Last year he was winning races of marks off 100+ and has carried that form into the current campain where he has made the frame in all of his five starts. He won at Haydock last month to gain compensation for two head defeats at Beverley and the Curragh, and ran well enough off a 1 lb lower mark at the Curragh LTO when finishing 3rd. He remains on a decent mark relative to those he was winning off last year and recent runs suggest he's held his form.

9/4 is short enough but doubling up with Gallagher.

[tedthewolf]

In the Gold Cup Thread i have put up RIVER FALCON at 20's and i think it has a big shout e/w but only 12's now. I noticed Tish put a big outsider up last night i also have it backed and fancy it e/w the horse is RAPTOR still available at 50's. Yesterday Silver cup winning trainer said you need a 7f horse to get 6f in the mud here. It has done most of its running over 7f and 8f but has won at 6f and on its only other run over it was a close 2nd in a decent race in Ireland.
Started off in Germany winning his first 3 starts. Will love the ground. His only win in this country was a three runner affair at Yarmouth BUT his trainer said after the race that he thought there was a good handicap in him and could find success at listed level thats a pretty bold statement. The one thing that has stopped me making this my bbotd is the draw i think low numbers are best but even a high draw would have been better. Still as Tish pointed out it is over priced and is a massive 70.00 on BF.

[fintron]

3.30 Ayr - Gold Cup

Turnkey - full reasoning explained in the Gold Cup thread, but one of Dandy's and Nicholls has won this race 4 times in past 10 years. Fits the other trends that 8 of last 10 winners were rated less than 100 and all of last ten winners were aged 6 or less. Has won over 6f before too.

The ground won't be a problem and he's proven over the distance. A claimer rides, but she gets on well with him and won on him recently at Pontefract with Damika one of those he had behind.

The two uncertainties are his 140 day absence and his draw- he comes from stall 12. Firsly, although I usually like to see a handicapper returning within a month or so of their last run, this one has gone well on his reappearances in the past, so can go well fresh. As for the draw, a lot has been made of it but I'm not convinced that you can draw a line through any of the runners just because they are drawn in the centre and will ignore the draw factor at my peril for this. I agree with what another posted said yesterday, that the ability to handle the going may be more important than the draw.

I took 33/1 with Ppower (EW 1/4 odds 5 places) earlier in the week but 28/1 is still avail with numerous bookies paying EW on 4 places, or 25/1 with Bet 365 who also pay out on 5.

[mowgli77]

Threads merged fellas, one started at 10.02 and one started at 10.11, probably posted similar times.

[bowles10]

Been trying to get to the botom of the Ayr Gold cup field & have submitted the trends i believe should be followed.

However looking mainly at the Stewards Cup form, which has produced 6 of the last 10 winners of this race, Knot in wood, Northern Fling, Patavellian, Indian Trail, Confuchias & Rising Shadow all ran in the race.

Knot in wood interests me a lot having come out well in the trends however a few negatives, no form at Ayr (2 defeats), 1 from 6 on Soft/heavy, ran poorly in race last year (23/28 off OR 103). Drawn 11 today not exactly the best draw in the field but with Valery Borzov in 7, will be guaranteed a fast pace. Has a lot to find with Tajneed who beat it 9+L when they met at Ripon.

If Confuchais had a lower draw i would be all over it like a rash, but coming out of 26 will need pace on that side but i cant see who will provide it. I can see the lower draws coming out 3 or 4L better than the higher draws.

Patavellian & Indian Trail & Rising Shadow are not favoured by the age stats at all. Northern Fling again is drawn too high.

Of those drawn low, Valery Borzov could make all the running but showed at Newcastle on this type of ground that it is vulnerable when out in front.

Tamagin drawn in 6 is my outsider value bet @ 33/1 with Skybet, again will be quickly away & will no doubt dispute the lead with Valery, great chance of a place.

Knot in wood ew 25/1 Sporting bet
Tamagin ew 33/1 Sky

[AK1979]

In the Silver Cup yesterday, low numbers were very strongly prominent, as were horses with some kind of form over 7f - due to the testing ground, their stamina came into play. I’ve tried to take that into consideration when narrowing the field down for this, although of course there’s no guarantee the draw bias will prevail again today.

Advanced, starts todays race off a mark 5lb lower than when winning this last year and the same mark when finishing 3^rd to Fonthill Road in 2007. He has winning form in listed grade over 7f and his figures on soft ground reads 2,2,2,2. He is yet to race on heavy but I think its fair to say that signs are encouraging that he will handle it ok. He hasn’t done a great deal wrong whilst his rating has slipped to this mark and looks primed to run a big race for the 3^rd year in a row after an encouraging effort over a too short 5f last time.

Another previous winner, the aforementioned Fonthill Road has similar credentials from stall 1, despite looking a touch high in the weights at 104 – he won off 97 and was 5^th last year off 100. He has a useful amateur jockey on today though who has an 18% strike rate for the stable and takes off 5lb’s which could be decisive. He made an encouraging enough seasonal debut last time out and despite doubts about ground this testing, his record in this race of 2,1,5 is hard to ignore. He should go well too.

One from the high drawn horses who fits the traits we are looking for is Confuschias. This one would be my main bet if he was drawn low but the outcome of the Silver Cup yesterday was a touch offputting. If however, the perceived draw bias doesn’t materialise then this one is the one to back. Loves the soft ground, has the stamina after good efforts over 7f, and has form in group and listed company. He could be well treated off 100 which may help overcome a draw disadvantage if it materialises. He ran a cracker last time when comfortably beating his group on the stands side.

Advanced 7/1 Ladbrokes
Fonthill Road 12/1 Ladbrokes
Confuchias 10/1 Ladbrokes

[mowgli77]

Ayr 4.40

Wise Dennis
1m handicapper, won over 9f but at Nad Al Sheba. Only attempt at 10f saw it 8th, well beaten by 10l, no chance today.

Alfie Flits
Keeps been tried over further, last run over 10f was March 2007 and it was 2nd last. Won on heavy but back in 2006, don’t fancy it today.

Bushman
Form reads 3-1-1-2 and includes a win on soft. 1st and 2nd over 10f, lightly raced, progressive, big chance today despite step up in class.

Defi
Completely outclassed, has been running in class 6 sellers, would be better on Blackpool beach with the donkeys.

Dunaskin
2nd in this race last year, gets the trip and won on soft but never won at Listed level and outclassed again today.

Mutajarred
3 runs over 10f have been 1st, 2nd and 11th. Loves the ground, won on heavy and soft. Went off fav at York and could bounce back today despite step up in class.

Sweet Lilly
Has won on good to soft but looks a better horse on good to firm. Quirky but talented and has won at listed level and over the 10f trip. EW chance at big price.

Redolent
Listed winner in May over 1m at Sandown. 2 runs abroad over 10f have seen it finish 2nd twice. Front runner and likely to set race up for others.

Perks
Steps up from handicaps and won on heavy and soft and over 10f. Progressing well but too short at 6-5 favourite.

Lady Deauville
2 listed wins already this season and 4th in Group 3 last time out. Ground and trip suit and leading chance today. Tracks leaders.

Perks is 6-5 fav, stepping up to listed level, has form on the ground and over the trip. Similar profile goes to Mutajarred but that’s 12-1. Bushman could be the most progressive in the field but is only 7-2. Mutajarred has beaten Many Volumes and that’s beaten Bushman. Both Bushman and Mutajarred are 4 yr old and carry 9-0. At the prices I’m on Mutajarred each way.

Suggested Bet:
5pts EW Mutajarred 12-1 Bet365 BOG

[WoodyTHFC]

2.20 Danehill Destiny 15 pts Backed this one lots of times now and whilst she hasnt won the last few times she has run well enough and this could just be her chance. As I have mentioned before, she showed real promise with her first two wins, remember she beat subsequent group winner on her second start. Things wrong at asc. but she ran well at hq when possibly not quite seeing the 6f and a stiff finish that day but then lto she stayed on well over 5f in a group race suggesting she may need 6f again and on an easier track I think she can see it out today and has the class to win. Handles cut and tariner often speaks that she is better with it.

3.30 Advanced 8/1 bluesq 7.5 pts e.w Burnwynd Boy 50/1 5 pts e.w var bog all with 5 places. Advanced went close in this in 2006 and of course last year he won it with a real battling performance. That day he won off 109 and yet this year he returns 4 pounds lower than that and I dont think he has been disgraced in the meantime, sure some below par runs as is the case with sprinters at times but some good runs too and the last couple of runs on softer he has run well enough, his narrow defeat to subsequent group winner look busy reads well. Of course he hasnt quite run on ground quite as deep as this so he isnt confirmed a true out and out mudlark but he has handled softer well enough and I dont see a huge problem in that regard and his low draw looks favourable. Burnwynd Boy just looks too big for me. Relatively lightly raced and seemingly went backward after a good start to his two year old career. However bounced back to form with a really classy effort two starts back on soft ground (arguably it was heavy), was third that day behind utmost respect no less and that reads very well in the context of this race. It is not easy for a three year old in such a competive race but at 50/1 I feel he may be overpriced especially on that newc. run, should be doing good work towards the end.

4.40 Perks 15 pts Backed this one the last two times and he has won well both times and been impressive. He was a solid horse before moving up in trip, running well in some good handicaps over shorter but when he gets his softer ground and over an increased trip he has been superb and quite frankly has looked like a near group horse running in handicaps. Indeed the day he won at hay. his time was better than the group race on the same day. Lto he was as impressive as he could be in a 3 runner race and I take him to win again.

[Spooner]

Put this in Gold Cup thread...

Originally Posted by Spooner

3:30 Gold Cup - Rising Shadow

I think Vc Bet are taking a big chance pricing this horse up at 33/1. I expect this price to be cut very quickly.

Rising Shadow should love the ground, Drawn reasonably well, His last win came on heavy ground which is the likely going tomorrow. When winning that day he beat Valery Borzov who is one of the favourites for this race.

If performing to that level which I see no reason why he should not, Same trip same ground, Then he has a great chance to get in the frame here without a doubt.

Slash that price Victor...

33/1 each-way VC Bet

[mileni4uk]

3.30 Ayr - Raptor

E/W @ 50/1 William Hill

Blinkers need to work if this one is to run a good race.
Handles difficult ground though and a possible surprise package at 50/1.

[Spooner]

2:50 - Zero Tolerance

A consistent horse and should run well today, Will love the ground and trip of a mile. There are question marks on some of the others runners whether they will handle this ground ok.

I will stick with the proven Zero Tolerance to take this race.

2/1 Ladbrokes

[RussP]

3.30 Ayr

3 EW for me here at big prices:-

Dabbers Ridge - Out of form but goes really well on this ground. Good mark too.
Aahayson - Front runner, drawn well, form in better grade, could surprise back in handicap on ground that suits.
Rising Shadow - Low weight, ok draw and loves the ground. Purely on going basis, I think this horse has a great chance.

Throw in Confuchias and Advanced for forecast / tricast combos.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by bowles10

Been trying to get to the botom of the Ayr Gold cup field & have submitted the trends i believe should be followed.

However looking mainly at the Stewards Cup form, which has produced 6 of the last 10 winners of this race, Knot in wood, Northern Fling, Patavellian, Indian Trail, Confuchias & Rising Shadow all ran in the race.

Knot in wood interests me a lot having come out well in the trends however a few negatives, no form at Ayr (2 defeats), 1 from 6 on Soft/heavy, ran poorly in race last year (23/28 off OR 103). Drawn 11 today not exactly the best draw in the field but with Valery Borzov in 7, will be guaranteed a fast pace. Has a lot to find with Tajneed who beat it 9+L when they met at Ripon.

If Confuchais had a lower draw i would be all over it like a rash, but coming out of 26 will need pace on that side but i cant see who will provide it. I can see the lower draws coming out 3 or 4L better than the higher draws.

Patavellian & Indian Trail & Rising Shadow are not favoured by the age stats at all. Northern Fling again is drawn too high.

Of those drawn low, Valery Borzov could make all the running but showed at Newcastle on this type of ground that it is vulnerable when out in front.

Tamagin drawn in 6 is my outsider value bet @ 33/1 with Skybet, again will be quickly away & will no doubt dispute the lead with Valery, great chance of a place.

Knot in wood ew 25/1 Sporting bet 4th 20/1
Tamagin ew 33/1 Sky

Happy with the way Knot in wood ran, thought i had it 50 yards from the line but when the camera caught up the other side were in front, still 4th for a bit of place money will do.

[fintron]

nice one Bowles and Mowgli got his EW shout in the frame too, well done.