Ascot - 19th Jan

[alexmac]

It gets the go ahead

Selections in here please

[alexmac]

Ascot - 2.55 - GASPARA

Love this little horse to pieces. I really like looking for 'value' E/W bets, and although Gaspara will be skinny odds tomorrow - I see it as an E/W bet to nothing, as there are 8 runners. Gaspara has NEVER finished outside the top 3 since coming over from France. She was staying on nicely up the Chetenham hill last time out, after a front running performance. Handles this type of ground having won on Soft and Heavy before and should get a decent run if things go to plan.

2.5pts E/W GASPARA

[Carl]

Lough Derg 1.10 Ascot
I think the drop in trip will help him cope with the conditions on a track he clearly loves (course form 3231). Beat Hardy Eustace LTO in a grade 1 but H.E was trying a new trip LTO to be fair but this looks easier and will be hard to peg back. 5/1

[Carl]

Material World 2.55 Ascot
Has been a model of consistency, out of the money just once in 17 career starts. She's run well fresh in the past, will handle the conditions and has an eye catching booking in shape of Ruby Walsh. 11/4

[cavelloman]

1.45 Ascot

Twist Magic is unproven at this level on going this heavy. The race at Sandown was only 13s slow. Of the opposition we have 2 horses from Ireland that can act on heavy going and have won on it at the top level. Masonry beat Nickname LTO which surely is of the level to be a major rival to the favourite. Also Schlinders Hunt won 2 Grade 1 novice chases on very soft going in Ireland last season. The rest of the field IMO would appear to be better suited to less soft going.

Masonry @4/1 with BetFred
Schlinders Hunt @11/1 with Coral

[Carl]

Mansony 1.45 Ascot
Represents the old E/W to nothing bet should the Nicholls horse blow up. Has only finished outside the top 2 twice in the last 10 starts with ground ranging from Hvy to GD. Has a firm hold on Schindlers Hunt who if this was paying 3 places Id also have a nibble on.

[alexmac]

Yeah, I agree with you guys. I am out to take on Twist Magic today. His form in heavy ground is questionable to say the least. Yes, he won the Tingle Creek but he is such a young horse and I can see him 'blowing up' today. Mansony does look the best of the rest - and Hoo La Baloo usually runs a good race at Ascot... At 4/7 or whatever price Twist is, I would say he is one to avoid.

[bowles10]

1.10 race

i've applied my ratings to this race on Ground, Distance, LTO & Trainer form at the track.

The top 3 are:

1. Hoh Viss 17pts (out of 20)
2. Lough Derg 15pts
3. Princelet 14pts

My staking plan on the race with 10pts is:

Hoh Viss 4pts win @ 6/1 Bet365(BOG) returns 18pts profit overall
Lough Derg 3pts win @ 5/1 Betfred returns 8pts profit
*Saver* Princelet 3pts win @ 5/2 Betfred returns profit of 0.5pts

[bowles10]

also looked at the 2.55 race with my ratings, top 3 are:

1. Refinement 19pts
2. Material World 14pts
2. Petite Margot 14pts

Staking as follows:

Refinement 5pts win @ 9/2 Ladbrokes returns 17.5pts profit
Material world 3pts win @ 3/1 Bet365 (BOG) returns 2pts profit
Petite Margot 2pts win @ 14/1 Bet365 (BOG) returns 20pts profit

[Carl]

seeing as there's no Scoop 6 and with Haydock gone, I wont be surprised to see a decent Placepot today at Ascot.

[tedthewolf]

In the 1.10 i have had a win bet on PEACOCK who ran really well at Cheltenham 3 starts back then was given a very poor ride by todays Jockey nto and then unseated him on their last outing when going very well at the time i have taking 4/1 but now 7/2 with most firms not that great price really for what the horse has achieved so far but i think this is a very useful horse who will win plenty of race hopefully starting today.Hoh viss won the race that Peacock unseated and has a lot in his favor again today and is a big danger so i have had rfc on them.

[bowles10]

C'mon guys, you should know class when you see it

1.45 Ascot TWIST MAGIC

The horse oozes class & deserves to go to the top. Nicholls knows what it can do & the ground will not be a problem. I saw it win @ Sandown on poor ground & i dont see that affecting it today. Is Mansony any good, well i think it was flattered a bit LTO by Nickname lack of fitness & looking at Twist Magic's record, it hasnt done anything wrong, fell when going very well in the Arkle chase at the Cheltenham festival last march & then hasnt been beaten since. Its tingle creek win beating Voy per ustedes was as good as it could have done & there is still more in the tank.

[secretmachines]

110 Paramount EW

i'm going to have a little EW stake on this one. although a slightly longer trip for this, it has Ruby Walsh on board who has good success on Paramount - only once outside the places on 8 rides in 2007.
i'm hoping the soft going can balance out the slightly longer trip as its used to running on heavier going in Ireland.

[bugsbunney]

here we go with ascot selections if i keep picking losers and seconds at this rate it will turn into a poor season but its time like this when discipline is needed

13.10 Princelet one of the lower weights n j henderson but has only one eye dont let this put you off
14.20 marodima r walsh nicholls i will have to pick more of nicholls horses on a saturday
14.55 material world my nap of the day a reliable horse r walsh on board
15.30 Model son well weighted may be important today 7 pound cliamer on board

please no more 2nds lets have a winning level stakes profit

[LaRoz]

2.00 Ascot

At the prices, its Mansony EW bet to nothing for me. 5/5 over distances of around 2M on soft/heavy ground. As discussed above, there is enough doubts over Twist Magic handling the ground.

3.30 Ascot Regal Heights 7/1 EW
All wins have come on soft/Heavy ground with a recent run, in Class 2 or lower, so all looks set for a good run today.

[Gingertipster]

Am I being too picky in being disappointed in a winners performance?
Wee Robbie had the race set up for him, the two front-runners took each other on and went far too fast. Wee Robbie was the only other horse with good form in the race. Only just got up, with the 25/1 shot not far away in 3rd.
Mahogany Blaze did exceptionally well to stay on like he did, and is the one to take out of the race for me. Doing much better than his finishing position suggests. Given a break to get over this, may represent value next time. With his trainer always keen to go for big handicaps with novices, may be he will take that route at Cheltenham.
Possible Wee Robbie needs needs further nowadays even on this ground, disappointing still.

[Carl]

Originally Posted by Carl

Lough Derg 1.10 Ascot
I think the drop in trip will help him cope with the conditions on a track he clearly loves (course form 3231). Beat Hardy Eustace LTO in a grade 1 but H.E was trying a new trip LTO to be fair but this looks easier and will be hard to peg back. 5/1

decent start but nothing since, just need Bonus @ 4/1 for my L15

[mowgli77]

From the race tactics thread:

I don't often like front runners but some jockeys are very shrewd on very soft ground when they take a huge lead and find the other horses can't catch them as they have no way of quickening through the mud and have let it get away too easily. This happened at Uttoxeter when we were at the PL meet, one horse went about 15 lengths clear and although it was coming back to the field it was too far ahead for them to catch it. Similar thing happened on Lough Derg recently too.

Interesting to see Lough Derg due to run tomorrow on heavy ground. Surely they won't give it a soft lead this time?

We are told to avoid races on heavy going, they are an even bigger puzzle and comments like "it's class will see it through" which may apply to a horse like Twist Magic are not always true. You can have a poor horse at massive odds making the frame due to the ground and stamina and I think there was a 100-1 placed today, on good ground these wouldn't even make the first 5 but heavy is a leveller.

Only got back from Meadowhall at about 2.20pm and checked results, couldn't believe Lough Derg won again, and there was no way I'd touch Twist Magic at 4-7 with stolen money on heavy ground. Gives me more confidence to stick with Voy Por Ustedes come Cheltenham even though it will be different ground in March.

[bugsbunney]

Originally Posted by bugsbunney

here we go with ascot selections if i keep picking losers and seconds at this rate it will turn into a poor season but its time like this when discipline is needed

13.10 Princelet one of the lower weights n j henderson but has only one eye dont let this put you off
14.20 marodima r walsh nicholls i will have to pick more of nicholls horses on a saturday
14.55 material world my nap of the day a reliable horse r walsh on board
15.30 Model son well weighted may be important today 7 pound cliamer on board

please no more 2nds lets have a winning level stakes profit

thank god no more seconds but no winners looking at my personal records i only have 18 winners from 59 this season about 30% strike rate but only 1 winner from the last 20 how long can the drought go on.I am 6.71 pts down on the season to sp but slightly up to betfair prices taken this is poor by my standards i have set myself.Hopefully i will start my own thread for the flat and make a good profit goodby now

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by mowgli77

From the race tactics thread:

Only got back from Meadowhall at about 2.20pm and checked results, couldn't believe Lough Derg won again, and there was no way I'd touch Twist Magic at 4-7 with stolen money on heavy ground. Gives me more confidence to stick with Voy Por Ustedes come Cheltenham even though it will be different ground in March.

didnt see the race as i was on the way to football, but listened to the Radio 2 commentary & sounded like Twist Magic was going well until it came to challenge & then didnt find anything. On what the horse had done so far & with it being fav for the Champion chase i didnt think it could get beat against this field. The ground was described as Soft (heavy in places) & the horse has acted on that before so that wasnt a negative in my book. Still, the result tells a story.

I managed to get Lough Derg in my ratings bet, pity refinement was 2nd.