Ali Baba- Each/way Tea Leafs

[cavelloman]

We will try to indicate where E/W "free bets" may be available.
These are mathematical based bets and an example from today is shown below. The value does not come clear,very often ,till fairly close to the race.

Here is the maths based on Betfair (average of bet/lay)reflecting true odds.
Chateau Rouge win odds 8/1(12/1 true odds) return = 69% long term
place odds 2.6(1.6 true odds) return = 162% long term
Therefore average return = 115.5% long term.

[cavelloman]

Posible E/W steal Knighton Lad 2.05 Hereford.

7.0 with uUkbetting at present and 7.8 (average odds to reflect possible true odds ) with Betfair.

Maths :-Win portion = 7 backed odds (Betfair 7.8 true odds) Return = 89% Long term
Place portion = 2.2 backed odds(Betfair 1.8 true odds ) Return = 122% Long Term
Possible Long Term Return = 105.5%


Not a must bet but may indicate value.

[socky1]

Bascilly it's posh way of saying an E/W Bet to nothing ,My idea of a good e/w bet nothing Don and Gerry 12:45 may lose a few points on the place but has an outstanding chance of winning!

[cavelloman]

I've just found that Slapdash is doing the same thing, so please refer to his thread. He is the master of E/W betting!!!

[slapdash]

I don't claim any monopoly on the idea, and you may well have some
different ideas from me, so don't give up.

As you may have noticed, I also picked Knighton Lad (after you did,
but I didn't peek, honest!). Unplaced, but it did beat the 2/5 favourite! The
only thing I'd brag about in comparison to you is that I recommended
starting price (which turned out to be 8/1), not that it makes much
difference when the horse comes 5th!

How do you go about looking for horses that qualify? You say in your
first post "The value does not come clear,very often ,till fairly close to the
race", whereas I tend to look fairly soon after the early prices are
available, to get the early price if necessary before it is cut.

[spreadman]

Hi, Mr. Slap, and a HNY to you.....good to see your tips back on the Sports-Punter.

Yes, here I go again sticking my nose in where it doesn't belong....don't know a jot about the gee gees, but to a simpleton like me, who is grateful for any small profit angle,....
.... if picking winners or even each way horses is not the bettor's overall priority, but a small win is, then, surely what you say about early prices and taking them before they come down, (assuming it is possible to do this on a fairly regular basis), means that there is the realistic probability that you can benefit in a lesser way by backing at the early price, and laying just before the race, at lower odds?

I fear that I am stating the obvious here, but felt the need to try and help one and all to a better bank balance in 2006.

OK, so you don't win so much this way, compared with when a horse is first, or placed, but if the total profit from your regular back/lays is near to that of your not so regular winning selections, surely it is worth a thought?

I know that you are not my Granny, and would never dream of teaching you to suck eggs, (has this post suddenly taken a surreal twist?), but felt this should be pointed out, at the risk of a 'so what?' from one and all.

It is not always important how we win money, but that we at least win some money, by any (legal) means with a mimimum of risk.

Well, it's just a thought, a bit of a statement of the obvious, I suppose, but we sometimes overlook the obvious that's right in front of us, when searching for the answer in the distance.

GL to you, and Cavelloman, with your tipping, I will take a closer look at the possibility of early morning backs and immediate pre race lays, to see if there is any viable profit there, while the soccer front is 'quiet'.

(Any advice, or pearls of wisdom, pointing me in the right direction would be gratefully received.....)

[slapdash]

Hi Spreadman,

Although the horses we're looking at here often tend to shorten in price
compared to the best early price, the Betfair price for a win is usually as
long or longer than the bookies' prices (you would lose money if you backed
my tips to win only: all the profit comes from the place half of the EW
bets), so usually it isn't possible to lock in much of a profit by laying back,
especially after taking Betfair commission into account.