Aelara's Valuescope for Xmas Dosh Thread

[aelara]

As an ardent follower of Valuescope for the last couple of years, I have decided to set myself a challenge. I will try to make enough money following Valuescope religiously every week to recommended bets to be able to pay for Xmas 2008. When you have a wife like mine, that's no mean task let me tell you!
I have in the past been guilty of going on a losing run with it (valuescope) and then not bothering with it for a few weeks. But all change this year. I started last weekend (the first selection of the year) with a €200 bank and will use Betfair only. I will use €10 per point and seeing as Valuescopes recommended bets are 2pts EW, I figure if for the 2 point bet I place €13 on the win market and €7 on the place market that will be a near enough comparison. I want to keep the totals updated every week so everyone can see how I'm getting on money wise- whether it will be a good Xmas 2008 or if I'll be in the dog house.
I'll jot down the prices I get on betfair and also keep an updated points total according to what I make at the prices I get.

Right, so here's the story so far:


Week 1 Principe Azzuro (5.40- betfair odds I took) 2pt win bet (suggested bet) 3rd@4/1 (finished/SP) -2.00pts (Day pts) -2.00 pts (Total pts) -€20.00 (Day money) -€20.00 (Xmas 2008 Total)

Week 2 Mr Ed (30.00- betfair odds I took) (6.67 place odds taken) 2pts EW (suggested)

Strong Resolve (30.00- betfair odds I took) (7.46 place odds taken) 2pts EW (suggested)

[aelara]

Originally Posted by aelara

Right, so here's the story so far:


Week 1 Principe Azzuro (5.40- betfair odds I took) 2pt win bet (suggested bet) 3rd@4/1 (finished/SP) -2.00pts (Day pts) -2.00 pts (Total pts) -€20.00 (Day money) -€20.00 (Xmas 2008 Total)

Week 2 Mr Ed (30.00- betfair odds I took) (6.67 place odds taken) 2pts EW (suggested)
Strong Resolve (30.00- betfair odds I took) (7.46 place odds taken) 2pts EW (suggested)

Last week, zilcho.
So far: -6.00pts, -€60.00

This week:
Week 3: Bonus (I took odds 5.8), 2pts win bet (suggested) - €20 bet will give a clear €96.00 after commission

[peteg40]

with this mate

Will follow with interest

[aelara]

No joy last week with Zilcho either so three blank weeks to start the year with. So far my Xmas fund is going backwards instead of forwards, so for the time being, the wife's present has been demoted from a gold ring to a plastic one
The way things stand at the moment are:
After 3 weeks I am -8.00 pts down and the kitty is showing a deficit of -€80.00. (Just a reminder that all results are calculated on the prices I get on betfair, not official SP's).


OK, today's selections and prices are as follows:
15:00 Doncaster (Hcap paying 4 places on betfair)
2pts EW suggested bet for both horses.

Henrys Pride: €13 @ 28.00 win bet and €7 @7.00 place- €333.45 for a win and €39.90 for a place (after 5% deducted).

Standin Obligation: €13 @ 15.50 win bet and €7 @ 4.60 place- €179.07 for a win and €23.94 for a place (after 5% deducted).

[aelara]

After 4 betting weeks, we have the following situation:
12 points down and the kitty at -€120, so old valuescope letting us down so far this year, which is kind of typical

OK, this week is the 14:35 at Sandown:
THE TOTHER ONE 2pt win bet, I got €20 @ 4.3 to give €62.70 after commission

BALLYFITZ 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 9.6 (win market) to give €106.21 after commission, €7 @ 2.72 (place market) to give €11.43 after commission

4 places available on betfair

[aelara]

The Tother One came first but Ballyfitz was unplaced so we have the following postion after today's race:

Total Won: €43.35 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: 4.33

After 5 betting weeks: -7.67 points and a bank of -€76.65

NB Check first post on this thread for points explanation, etc

[aelara]

This week is the 15:20 at Newbury:
MOHAYER 2pts EW bet, I got €13 @ 18.50 to give €216.12 after commission, €7 @ 4.9 (place market) to give €25.93 after commission

KINGS QUAY 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 29.00 (win market) to give €345.80 after commission, €7 @ 7.20 (place market) to give €41.23 after commission

4 places available on betfair

Obviously each total above doesn't take into consideration any losing bets which will have to be taken from the main total.

[aelara]

MOHAYER came 4th so I nicked the place on that one but KINGS QUAY unplaced. Today's damage only came to -€6.72 so no great harm done.

So after today's race we have the following position:

Total € for Day: -€6.72 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -0.67

After 6 betting weeks: -8.34 points and a bank of -€83.37

NB Check first post on this thread for points explanation, etc

I still have faith.......

[aelara]

This week is the 14.45 at Haydock:
IDLE TALK 2pts EW bet, I got €13 @ 11.50 to give €129.68 after commission, €7 @ 3.5 (place market) to give €16.63 after commission

L'AVENTURE 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 18.00 (win market) to give €209.95 after commission, €7 @ 3.90 (place market) to give €19.29 after commission

4 places available on betfair


Any placed efforts today will more or less give back the win stake so ideally one winner and one placed will do fine
The place price for L'AVENTURE went out to 4.2 as soon as I placed my bet but I suppose at €7 it doesn't make much difference!

Don't forget that loosing bets will make a difference to the stated totals on the bets above.

[aelara]

L'AVENTURE came 3rd eventually and IDLE TALK was unplaced

Total € for Day: -€14.36 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -1.44

After 7 betting weeks: -9.78 points and a bank of -€97.73

[aelara]

This week is the 15:15 at Kempton:

UNGARO 2pts win bet, I got €20 @ 6.80 to give €110.20 after commission

DREAM ALLIANCE 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 14.50 (win market) to give €166.72 after commission, €7 @ 4.20 (place market) to give €21.28 after commission

3 places available on betfair

[aelara]

No joy today, in a year so far where Valuescope has been a disappointment- but I wouldn't expect anything else in the year I decide to follow religiously with hard-earned dosh


Total € for Day: -€40.00 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -4.00

After 8 betting weeks: -13.78 points and a bank of -€137.73

[aelara]

This week is the 15:15 at Newbury:

Maljimar 4pts win bet, I got €40 @ 3.85 to give €114.00 after commission


Now, this horse has to really, really win. If not then next week my initial bank of €200 dwindles to €22 and time to dip into the funds again. And I was not expecting to do that two months in Looking like Xmas will be spent in a soup kitchen instead of being paid for by this

[aelara]

Ouch....
Maljimar UR when never a factor


Total € for Day: -€40.00 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -4.00

After 9 betting weeks: -17.78 points and a bank of -€177.73


Quote from today's Valuescope:
"This is the final week until the autumn without a big-field handicap, so we can really look at next week's Imperial Cup as being the start of our year proper"


....If ever a season needed to start

[aelara]

This week is the 15:15 at Sandown:

Ashkazar 3pts win bet, I got €30 @ 3.80 to give €79.80 after commission

Pilca 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 24.00 (win market) to give €284.05 after commission, €7 @ 5.50 (place market) to give €31.50 after commission
4 places available on betfair



I just hope that what Valuescope said last week- that the season proper starts today- holds true as my original bank of €200 has been frittered away and I've had to stick another €35 in to cover today's bets

[aelara]

Ashkazar came first at an SP of 10/3
Pilca- nowhere


Total € for Day: €57.31 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: +5.73

After 10 betting weeks: -12.05 points and a bank of -€120.42

[aelara]

Today is the 16:00 at Cheltenham:

PONMEOATH 2pts EW bet, I got €13 @ 21.00 to give €247.00 after commission, €7 @ 5.8 (place market) to give €31.92 after commission

BOB HALL 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 21.00 (win market) to give €247.00 after commission, €7 @ 5.70 (place market) to give €31.25 after commission

Betfair paying on 3 places

I took the bets at 8:00AM and both horses are sitting at 20.00 on betfair at the moment.

[aelara]

Both nowhere

Total € for Day: -€40.00 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -4.00

After 11 betting days: -16.05 points and a bank of -€160.42

[aelara]

Today we have two races, 14:20 and 16:40 both at Cheltenham:

In the 14:20:
TAMARINBLEU 3pts win bet, I got €30 @ 5.5 to give €128.25 after commission.

In the 16:40
COUNTING HOUSE 2pts EW bet, I got €13 @ 27.00 to give €321.10 after commission, €7 @ 6.00 (place market) to give €33.25 after commission

TEMOIN 2pts EW, I got €13 @ 42.00 (win market) to give €506.35 after commission, €7 @ 8.20 (place market) to give €47.88 after commission

Betfair paying on 4 places in the 16:40

[aelara]

This is not good at all....

Total € for Day: -€70.00 (this is taking into consideration all bets and commissions deducted)
Points for Day: -7.00

After 12 betting days: -23.05 points and a bank of -€230.42


I know it only takes one big priced winner (which will come) but how long will I be able to keep propping up the betting bank until a decent priced bet is landed