World Cup Winners 2010

[Vilamoura04]

Dont know how to post odds in sorry

Home advantage

Looking back through past winners it appears important to consider the location of the tournament when selecting a winner.

Since 1958, if the tournament has been hosted in either Europe or South America, the winner has always come from the same continent.

Host Nation

This year the tournament is to be held in South Africa. So could an african team win it?

The hosts have little chance and are out at 150/1, but they may be worth a bet to qualify from their group. Only co-hosts Japan in 2002 fell at the first hurdle, while South Korea went on to finish 4th. It is good for the tournament for the hosts to get as far as possible and some have opined that FIFA 'encourage' this.

African Contenders

Of the other african teams, Didier Drogba's Ivory Coast look to have the best opportunity to make headlines and can be backed at 20/1.

Tournament Winners outside Europe or South America

Also worth noting is that there have been two occasions when the World Cup has been hosted by a continent outside of Europe or South America. This was USA in 1994 and Korea & Japan in 2002. On both occasions, Brazil won. Brazil are favourites here again at 9/2.

[PistolC]

Spain Or Brazil for me. I know it's the obvious choice's but Spain on current squad & form & Brazil on classy skillfull Squad & being able to produce when it matters in the big tournament. I cant look any further than these two

Spain have never won it, but they had never won the Euro's until two years ago & there current crop jell well & have shown great balance. Maybe they lack strength in midfield but so do Barca & look at them..

Brazil have strength, pace, skill & quality. All the attributes needed. The one thing that may let them down is when they try to be too flashy & cocky..

As far as the African teams go I dont know an awfull lot but i do know they will bring power & some brilliance to the tournament, Perhaps one of the home continent countries can get as far as the semi's but id be suprised if they beat the likes of spain or Brazil when the tournament reaches those stage's. Should be a good tournie but of course without Ireland it just wont be the same

[Morgan]

Brazil start favourites every time but they have only won it twice when held away from the Americas. Past performance is no guide to the future but.....

[Rob the I ty]

Brazil should win but they do have a difficult group this time around and a slip up could mean them playing Spain in the Round of 16.

Perhaps taking a chance on a Serbia or Paraguay and hope they make it to the QF and begin hedging.

[Ashtee]

Nice lead in Vilamoura04 .

Should Holland be at odds of 16.00?

NB. The question is aimed at those who not only know more about soccer than me (which is all of you) but also have a flare for thinking odds & framing markets.

I saw them play away to Australia recently (0-0) with some of their best players missing. They looked special to me.

[AJ]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Nice lead in Vilamoura04 .

Should Holland be at odds of 16.00?

NB. The question is aimed at those who not only know more about soccer than me (which is all of you) but also have a flare for thinking odds & framing markets.

I saw them play away to Australia recently (0-0) with some of their best players missing. They looked special to me.

No, they are too long, they have a safe enough draw and will progress easily to the last 16. I'd have them closer to 12s, so I guess you could say it's a value pick.

Argentina are 11.5 and the Dutch are miles ahead of them in terms of organisation and management.

Then again the entire market is fcuked, Portugal can be taken today @ 34s. Same portugal team that made the semis last time out with Ronaldo much improved since then. Sure they've got a hardish group, but for them to move from 20s to 34s on the basis of the fact they have to beat Ivory coast is mad.

In fact the market tells us that Portgual are five times less likely to win the world cup than England who are priced at 7s.

Look at the England and Portugal squads and tell me why this is the case.

Lay England who are stupidly short, they should be priced around 12s (as should the dutch who should be backed at 16s) and lay Argentina who lack the class and nous to go anywhere close here.

Spain and Brazil are pretty much joint favs and i think that's fair.

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by AJ

Lay England who are stupidly short,

DONE ! Even a mug like myself should have spotted that one!

I'm guessing England are invariably on the short side, simply due to who the punters are? A little like in local sports here, the big supporter base clubs can often be a lay while the clubs with fewest supporters are often the back.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by AJ

Lay England who are stupidly short, they should be priced around 12s (as should the dutch who should be backed at 16s) and lay Argentina who lack the class and nous to go anywhere close here.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if both France and Argentina went out at the group stage.

I agree the whole market is just rubbish, and especially for the team's you mention.

[Ashtee]

There's obviously the draw and likely scenarios factored in. England may be destined for a quater final with the winner of France's group or Nigeria whereas Holland are headed for a meeting with Brazil at the same stage.

In the other half, Portugal (or Brazil) could get Spain in the Round of 16. Argentina look to be dealt an OK hand through Stage-2.

I recall that Sharapova, winner of the Australian Open a couple of years ago, was ridiculous long odds throughout the whole tournament based on her draw. Sometimes if your the best player/team that month you'll simply win it regardless and at the big price.

[MARTINLAURSEN]

I got ivory coast at 40/1. put this bet on at the start of qualification and certainly have no regrets! they are not at 20's

as an each way shout, worth the punt

[Paul Ross]

The continent thing is a live argument, but don't forget it will be Winter in South Africa when the World Cup takes place. I believe that takes away any advantage to African teams, and throws the whole thing wide open.

I think this is the most wide open WC for a long time.

[StuSimmy]

Looking at the prices just now I think Germany are overpriced, don't think there squad is as strong as it has been in the past but I thought that at the euros 2 years back and they gave a good run as always finishing runners up. Also finished 3rd at the last World Cup and were Runners Up in 2002. They are always there or thereabouts in the big tournaments and at 14/1 could be worth an each way shout.

[L3goH3ad]

Like many I can't see anyone other than Spain or Brazil winning it personally. Obviously there's teams such as Germany, France, Holland and Argentina but when it comes to crunch time, Spain/Brazil are the only 2 for me. I agree with the lay on England as the price is way too short; atleast we have plenty of time to decide anyway! Have to say I disagree with the person that said Argentina lack class? Messi? Ageuro? Tevez?

[ultravires]

I am in total agreement about laying England. I would fancy them to get knocked out when they come up against any one of the 'big boys'. I think France could struggle in their group. Mexico and Uruguay are far from solid, but they have the pace and technique to get at a team like France who will inevitably stumble out of the blocks.
Netherlands look pretty long considering on their day they can mix it with anyone.

[AJ]

Originally Posted by L3goH3ad

Like many I can't see anyone other than Spain or Brazil winning it personally. Obviously there's teams such as Germany, France, Holland and Argentina but when it comes to crunch time, Spain/Brazil are the only 2 for me. I agree with the lay on England as the price is way too short; atleast we have plenty of time to decide anyway! Have to say I disagree with the person that said Argentina lack class? Messi? Ageuro? Tevez?

You don't win a world cup with strikers.

Their midfield doesn't give them a platform to build on. Messi doesn't perform for his country like he does for Barca because he doesn't have Xavi and Innestia behind him pulling the strings.

But more importantly, their manager is a nutter. Maradonna doesn't have them mental strength or disipline to manage a word cup winning team. I'd lay them on this basis alone

[Ashtee]

Originally Posted by Paul Ross

The continent thing is a live argument, but don't forget it will be Winter in South Africa when the World Cup takes place. I believe that takes away any advantage to African teams, and throws the whole thing wide open.

I think this is the most wide open WC for a long time.

Are Ivory Coast - 29.00 @ Betfair - being too heavily fancied or do they genuinely have enough quality?

[ScottyXS]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Are Ivory Coast - 29.00 @ Betfair - being too heavily fancied or do they genuinely have enough quality?

Tbh I would be very, very suprised if there squad do anything.
Any side that has Hibs' Sol Bamba in it's team will struggle.

They have been well overrated due to the competition being held in Africa and the fact they have Drogba in there side .
They have also drawn a tough group with Brazil and Portugal, imo they will be out first round, so no chance basically.
But if you decide to go with it- good luck.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Ashtee

Are Ivory Coast - 29.00 @ Betfair - being too heavily fancied or do they genuinely have enough quality?

Nah, same problem every African team has, great going forward, but awful defensively and tactically nowhere near good enough to consistenly get through a tournament like this.

[Dr Who]

Originally Posted by Matt

Nah, same problem every African team has, great going forward, but awful defensively and tactically nowhere near good enough to consistenly get through a tournament like this.

I'm not sure that this holds up any more.

It's the old, "blacks are fast and skillful but a bit thick and can't do team work or structure" arguement.

May have been true 20 years ago, but so many of them play in europe now with european coaches that I think it's null and void.

Having said that IC are far too short at 29s, they are a 50/1 shot for me.

They can be laid at this price I think

[Matt]

I'm not sure that this holds up any more.

Nah I thought that as well but that then I watched the African Nations Cup and its still the same, some of the defending and goalkeeping just verged on comical.

No co-incedence the last two have won by Egypt who probably the strongest African defensive side seen for some time.

Remember the Ivory Coasts keeper from the last tournament? I dont know if he still in goal but his performances were beyond a joke.