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Old 13-03-2003, 18:34   #29 (permalink)
Joe
God Punter
 
Join Date: 26 Oct 2004
Posts: 3,725
Default Re: kelly staking with trebles

przeszczepan, you really have been reading those past threads.

Yes to everything you say. For me, A type of Kelly using % of starting bank, not current bank, would improve the chances of profit (although technically increase chances of bankruptcy). But I didn't test this for my book because it's technically not a traditionally Kelly plan and I thought people might get confused. Besides, with the info. I've provided in it, hopefully readers might experiment a bit and look at this particular method themselves, as well as others.

Personally I'd also add that since most of my ratings systems attempts at predicting edge for a bet are pretty useless, and for my more subjective ski jumping analysis I'm really only guessing the strength of a bet, I'd basically use a fixed profits plan and simply assume that my average singles yield (if it existed) was my edge for every bet, thus avoiding an overcomplication. Really there is no right or wrong, best or worst staking plan, it all depends on punter preferences, but the aim should be to think about them a little more and what's most suited to these preferences.

Quote:
Is it on staking, betting systems, sports betting or what?
Everything relevant to fixed odds, mate. Well, except matched betting, but then all the principles I discuss apply there so I assumed a reader can logically apply them to this area of betting. Here's a summary...

1.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Sports Betting as a form of Investment
2.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp What is Fixed Odds Betting?
3.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Beating the Bookmaker
4.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Rating Systems for Sports Prediction
5.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Sports Betting & Risk Management
6.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Risks and Returns for Fixed Odds Betting
7.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Staking Strategy & Money Management
8.&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp A Winning System?

Last chapter is a mish mash of goodies like favourite-longshot bias, statistical significance of your records, reliability of numerical rating systems etc.)
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