[Bossie13]

Originally Posted by malcolmas

AEK Athens v Fiorentina (19:00 GMT)

Current greek leaders against 5th placed italians Fiorentina.
AEK have started to lose games in their own league, 2 recent losses, admittedly 1 of the games was against 2nd place Panathinaikos.
Their recent group game was drawn away against IF Elfsborg.
Group C should pan out to be all about Fiorentina & Villarreal with the other 3 teams fighting for the 3rd spot.
Fiorentina have drawn away to Villarreal recently in this group, so they are not just relying on their good home results.
They have also drawn 6 times in their own league, out of 13 games.
Mutu is not due back into the team for this match, but they have scored without him.

Based on this I think the X2 result is more appealing than the home win, so I am going to lay AEK based on returns.

10pts Back (X) returns a profit of 12.82 (3.3 BF)
10pts Back (2) returns a profit of 12.35 (3.35 BF)

15pts Lay (1) returns a profit of 14.25 (2.36 BF)

Selection: Lay AEK (2.36 BF)

I would just say that full stake on X or 2 is rather dangerous here. I just spoke to someone of the fiorentina squad and he thinks that there will be some players left out of the squad and would be given some rest before the important game on sunday against Inter at home.
They still have a home game against Mlada Boleslav in eufa cup to secure qualification.
Another important thing is that they are now just arrived at Greece because earlier today they went to the funeral of Prandelli (headcoach)'s wife.