RODDICK v Ferrer @ 2.74 Pinnacle 3pts
Very interesting match, especially given the form that Ferrer has been in, and looks like being a public play on Ferrer. First of all, look at the H2H - 2-2, 1-1 this year with Ferrer winning the last meeting in Cincinatti. The most important thing here is Roddicks serve - in particular his second serve - as if he can hold easily he always has a good chance. Looking deeper into the two H2H's this year, in the first (Roddick won) he served a pretty poor 55% first serve (year average 65%) and won 55% points behind his second serve (year average 57%). In the second meeting (Ferrer won), Roddick actually served quite a bit better, getting 62% first serve in and winning 63% behind second serves. This is encouraging as he managed to be more successful behind his second serve than he has done this year which is excellent considering Ferrers returns. The story of that match was that Ferrer created one break point and managed to take it, and played a great tie break. I remember watching that match, and Ferrer played great, definately up to the level he has shown this week, and Roddick was fairly average.
This week, Ferrer came in as an outsider, but has been excellent and is the form player starting the knock-out stages. However, this is a fairly new experience for him, and it could argued that the pressure will be a big hinderance. Conversely, Roddick has been in this situation many times, and aside from playing Federer, he tends to deal witht he pressure pretty well. I'm not reading anything into his poor performance and loss to Federer - after the Gonzalez result it was a dead rubber for him and well, he's just not going to beat Federer is he?
Roddick needs to approach this match in the same way he did the one against Davydenko, where I thought he played very well, then he has a good chance.
Ferrer is the "buzz" of the tournament right now, and after three spectacular performances he'll have a lot of support in the markets, however, I still think these prices should be closer together - and I think the bookies prices of around 2.37 are closer to the fair price.