A few prices starting to appear for the 19 matches over the weekend. Not enough as yet to assess many of the games. However, one with enough prices available that takes the eye is:
| Match No. | Date | Tournament | Home Team | Best Odds | Av Odds | Av Odds +5% | Av Odds +7% | Selection |
| 62 | 29/09/2007 | RWC 2007 | Scotland | 1.50 | 1.41 | 1.48 | 1.50 | Scotland |
Selection therefore is
Scotland - £50.00 @ 1.50 with
Ladbrokes -
If you'd asked me before the RWC about the outcome of this game, I'd have plumped for an Italian win. Indeed, I'd posted on the RWC thread way before the tournie started that Italy would beat Scotland and finish runners up in this group. However, the Italians have had a really poor RWC with an absolute thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks followed by unconvincing wins over Romania and Portugal. Scotland, by comparison, have looked as good as they could (particularly their pack) against Romania and Portugal and even their B side did moderately well against a full strength New Zealand team. Scotland have named an injury free, strong side for this game and in Paterson, have one of the best kickers of the tournament 'dodgey' RWC balls. This will hopefully keep the scoreboard ticking over for them as I am sure the Scottish pack will put the Italians under enough pressure to concede vital penalties. Italy's team selection is less strong than they would have liked having lost one or two players and their captain to injury. Based on the IRB ratings, Italy (75.65) should beat Scotland (74.95) at a neutral venue by around 1 point. The sides know each other well having played 9 times against each other since 2000, with Scotland slightly ahead through winning 5 out of the 9. Six minutes of Scottish madness in their last match cost them the game as they gifted Italy 3 tries from which they never recovered. 1.50 is a skinny price for potentially such a close game. However, the price is one that is 7% above the mean and likely to drop before the match. Indeed, its not often that you find that
Ladbrokes are offering the stand out price at anything
! Am I uneasy about this selection / bet? Yes, but this is a yes with an if!