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Old 27-09-2007, 07:45   #20 (permalink)
Rushian
Senior Punter
 
Join Date: 12 Dec 2006
Posts: 133
Default Re: Creation of a "systems calculator" tool for Punters Lounge

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantomDude View Post

You could even argue that making sniffy a "dynamic" tool mightn't even be a particularly good idea. Betting systems need to be evaluated over a large number of bets in order to gauge their success. Filtering the bets posted by a poster as part of their system might return a very small set of bets. What if only 5/6 bets are returned by such a filter? If a system is filtered so that only bets where the odds are less than 1.5 are counted, and 6 bets are returned, 5 of which are winners, could it be argued that this is proof that the system is profitable for odds under 1.5? A lot of people would argue no. Since people aren't going to be posting hundreds and hundreds of picks (most wouldn't even be posting dozens and dozens) the results returned by using such filters would usually be statistically insignificant.
You are right phantomDude regarding the results of filtering. However, if combined with a statistical significance measure of those filtered picks (as I mentioned in my second point of my previous post), then the filtered "system" will be evaluated in terms of its (statistical) profitability.

I accept, though, your point in it being too complicated/difficult to implement. I am definitely not a technical expert, so I would leave it to those of you who know best!!
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