Quote:
Originally Posted by Wumpking  For me, this selection / outcome raises an interesting question. I was uneasy backing Canada but chose too as they were a system pick. At what point however, should a follower of a system over ride the system's selection? Would be interested in other forumites opinions on this (if anybody else is reading). |
IMO the answer to this question should take into account other factors. First of all, what is your idea of a system? If it is a number cruncher that you should follow religiously, or is it a "value detector" that just points you in the direction of potential value bets?
By design your system only picks selection with low odds, therefore one loss can wipe away five or six wins. Or look at it this way: if you don't bet when your instinct tells you not to, you would face a 'not earned profit' situation when 6 out of 7 no bet matches were winners. Since you seem to be a guy that knows his rugby very well
, do you think this is a likely scenario or not?
In the specific case of that match you lost I think you overlooked the fundamental of a system: value. Whatever the stats said you detected that the odds offered weren't good enough for such a tight game. Therefore it was a bet with no value and IMHO you should've followed yoiur gut.
F.
P.S.: sorry if my English was crap today, it is one of those days when neurons refuse to connect to each other...