Assessment of tomorrow's matches:
Match No. | Date | Tournament | Home Team | Best Odds | Av Odds | Av Odds +5% | Av Odds +7% | Selection |
50 | 25/09/2007 | RWC 2007 | Canada | 1.29 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.27 | Canada |
51 | 25/09/2007 | RWC 2007 | Romania | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.15 | |
First selection is
Canada - £79.00 @ 1.29 with
Stan James -
.
I'll be honest and admit that I am slightly worried about this selection/bet. The high stake due to
Stan James' price being 9% above the bookies mean is causing some of this concern. In the 4 games Canada has played against Japan since 2000, both sides have won 2 a piece, although 3 out of the 4 were played in Japan. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this game could go either way, but they do plump for a narrow Canuck win. Based on the IRB ratings, Canada (67.50) should beat Japan (64.79) at a neutral venue by 6 points, so again further evidences that this should be close. On the positive side,
Sporting Index (always a good guide) have the Canuck supremacy over the Cherry Blossoms pitched as 12-15, whilst the average handicap mark is -13.5 points at 1.90. At the end of the day, however, what the system selects, I bets!
Second selection is
Romania - £50.00 @ 1.15 with
Betfair -
.
Whilst I was able to get £50.00 fully matched on
Betfair which is the minimum price required (taking into account commission), I am also a little apprehensive about this selection/bet. Romania have played Portugal 7 times since 2000, winning 6 out of the 7. However, Portugal have shown considerable attacking flair in their last 3 matches, resulting in tries being scored against Scotland, Italy and even New Zealand! They are the people's favourites for tomorrow's match, although not the bookies, and are looking for a historic RWC win to end their tournament. Planet Rugby's analysis of the match concludes that this will be a tricky game to call, but they go for a Portuguese win by 8. Based on the IRB ratings, however, Romania (66.51) should beat Portugal (62.03) at a neutral venue by 10 points.
Sporting Index have the Oak's supremacy over Os Lobos pitched at 20-23, whilst the average handicap mark is -19.0 points at 1.90 which is some reassurance.