Hello,
First of all, rugby is not my sport... I barely know the rules
but I regard it as one of the best sports to watch once you get the hang of it...
Anyway, I got interested in your system because you are basing it in sound mathematical theories:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wumpking  The theory of Quarbs was first outlined in the work of Paton and Vaughan Williams (2002) in 'Quarbs' and Efficiency in Spread Betting: can you beat the book? This theory was further developed and applied to fixed odds betting by Smith, Paton and Vaughan Williams (2005) in Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets.
The system also draws upon other weak form information inefficiency theories, particularly the ‘favourite-longshot bias’, whereby low probability outcomes are overvalued and high probability outcomes are undervalued. |
Not only your selection criteria seems solid, you are basing your staking plan in Kelly's criterion, also very solid (mathematically speaking)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wumpking - Stakes are based on the Kelly criteria with an added modification to limit risk and are calculated by the following formulae: Current Total Bank x % Difference between Mean Odds and Best Odds x Subjective Probability of Winning (as derived from the mean odds).
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As I'm sure you already know the main downside to Kelly's staking plan is that your bank will be on a "rush mountain ride", but your risk limitation variant should smooth it out...
I'll be following with interest. Best of lucks to you...
F.