Quote:
Originally Posted by Wumpking  The system also draws upon other weak form information inefficiency theories, particularly the ‘favourite-longshot bias’, whereby low probability outcomes are overvalued and high probability outcomes are undervalued. Other forumites, particularly mcgin, have analysed the ‘favourite-longshot bias’ in rugby - see for example http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=38441 Indeed, this system owes much to mcgin’s work outlined in this thread and is based on his original paper/real life trial so many thanks mcgin -  |
Cheers for the acknowledgment, although the original idea stemmed from from work done by Datapunter & the guy that runs football-data.co.uk
Good luck anyway, I'm sure you will be successful as I saw every reason there were huge inefficiencies with some of the books out there (keep an eye on
Stan James he was always providing some far out odds)
A word of warning, you might want to be wary of anything > 1.30. I found those to be a bit dodgy when I was running this. Although that was more of a subjective thing rather then me tracking it and seeing the results.
Am looking forward to the WC myself. I believe there will be plenty of short favs that will fall into the system and was actually thinking of resurrecting my old thread for it. Mightn't have to now
Here's hoping you can beat my 33 in a row
