Quote:
Originally Posted by allthethings  To me if you're convinced Germany will win, playing the overs also on the game means you have to be right about the result and right about the texture. That means you're doubling your exposure on the game with not a huge chance of being right twice.
I have thought a lot about this because I play mainly overs, and sometimes I play two bets on a game like this and more often one bet cancels the other...or worse, both lose.
Think about it this way...what's the only likely way you can lose the Germany bet? If it's a low-scoring game. If Greece's defense holds or Germany can't finish on its chances, as in the France game, the game will likely end under...since Germany is likely to score one certainly even in that scenario, the most likely result would be 1-1 (in which case you double your losses) or 1-0 or 2-0 perhaps (in which case you've just canceled your winner with a split).
Now ask yourself this: Can Greece score more than one goal? If the game ends 2-2, your overs bet will save you the loss from Germany drawing in regulation. If Greece wins 2-1, same thing.
I would say the high-scoring loss/draw is much more unlikely than a low-scoring draw/loss, so playing both imo is an unnecessary risk.
So for me the question is, which is more likely? Germany to win in regulation or the game to go over? The odds are better on the overs, but I think the Germany win more likely. If both teams were scorers/conceders, I'd have chosen the overs rather than the side (that's sort of my primary bet type).
But I thought I'd bring this up here because I see people take this sort of bet a lot, and I'm not sure it makes sense. On the opener of the Austrian Bundesliga a couple weks ago, I took LASK to win, then added the overs on the game because I thought it seemed like a good bet, and at the time I posted here that it was possibly "insurance" on the side bet. The game was won by LASK 1-0 in the 90th minute, and I had in essence canceled my winner...and I nearly lost two bets...not worth the risk imo.
BOL, and I hope for you the final is 2-1 Deutschland...no, make that 3-1. |
Had to get some sleep...
I do understand your way of thinking when choosing to play the over or straight win or both. The people reading my analysis must see which of the bets being the main pick. If they choose to follow them both blindly without consideration it will be their problem. Anyways it is nice to get some discussion around write-ups, it is important to have a critical eye on it when reading one. I guess I have to tell you a little about my betting system. I feel it is kind of necessary because it would explain a little why I play both bets in matches.
Like a day like this I already have these three bets pending. From before I had Pompey and will put some friendlies on the board later. All matches I bet on are from 1.70 ---> and some are so-called "high risk" matches. I do not expect to hit home all bets, but if I have an over 50% hit rate, my books will at the end of the day be in a positive direction. It is an easy system to relate to, and it works, at least for me.
Of course I am risking some placing the over bet along with the straight win, but I rate the over bet as pure value and I sincerely believe that the possibillity for a 2-1 or 3-1 win for the germans is likely. And as you said, the odds are tempting. I do not post on PL as often as I want to, time is an essence, but when I post I only writes about the matches which have convinced me in one or the other way. Of course there are any possible scenarios in footy. You could have a red card early in the match, a refs bad judgment could lead to a wrong decided penalty, a sudden injury on a key player could make the match picture turn totally. Thinking wildly of all the possible scenarios that might be in a football match would for me only be confusing. When betting I look at all the factors pre-game that is possible; form, stats, players, injuries and so on. Have learned a lot being a handball player in the top league in Norway that there is too much factors in a game that can change the gameplay that to consider all will be very difficult. In all bets there are a lot of questionmarks, you mentioned some in your post, and your reasoning is not bad at all I must say, you have some good points. Still I think it is all about how we punters think and ways of compiling all the thoughts we have on the matches which stand to come...
Thanks for the questioning by the way, it is good to think twice over a bet sometimes, hope you get some answers in my reasoning though...
