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Old 24-04-2007, 18:16   #44 (permalink)
cluelessG
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Join Date: 14 Aug 2002
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Default Re: CL semis 24-25/4 (1st leg)

CL semifinals are just the kind of matches that could be decided by a single moment of brilliance of one player. Motivaton is always high, unusual tactics might be employed so there are to many unknown factors. Although I am leaning towards laying Man Utd this evening (because Milan is in pretty good form at the right time, defensive problems for Man Utd., etc), I will probably skip it. But I will definitely have a bet on corners. Look at the stats from the last 4 matches of the two teams in CL (corners taken by each team):

Milan - Bayern 3:5
Bayern - Milan 7:1
Roma - Man Utd 9:3
Man Utd - Roma 3:2
Lille - Man Utd 5:4
Man Utd - Lille 4:2
Celtic - Milan 1:3
Milan - Celtic 11:3

6 times the total number of corners was below 9.5 and only on two occasions the total was over 9.5 (Roma - Man Utd was probably influenced by the red card; Celtic - Milan is certainly a very different match when compared with Man Utd - Milan). So odds about evens for Total corners under 9.5 (Betfair) looks ok to me. The only downside is that you could spent too much time counting the corners during the match
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