Quote:
Originally Posted by GotaFancy?(BPP) 
Over 1 hand, the result is nearly 100% Luck/variance and nearly 0% skill
Over 60 Years play (and millions of hands), the result is nearly 0% luck/variance and nearly 100% skill.
Time scales in between have splits in between of luck/variance and skill.
If overall (maybe over a month or so), you find that you are losing, then it is probably a good indication that there is a problem with your game and you should look at the way you tackle the game .... you cannot judge your game over a single session/evening/game. |
I think one month may not be long enough to judge either to be fair GAF. The problem with variance is that you may start on the wrong side of it, they do say it may take months before it goes your way. The problem then may be, you may adjust your play to counter the variance, when in fact you weren't doing anything wrong in the first place.
I'd suggest (especially if playing tournaments) is to jot down the hands you go out with. Did you get your chips in when you were a favourite ? (If you were a underdog on most of your hands, I would say that may indicate that your game needs some tuning. If you find you're a favourite more often than not, then you're just suffering the variance.)
The hardest part is say you get someone to commit all their chips on the turn and they have only 2 outs, doesn't mean you'll win the other 19 out of 20, the next time you're in this favourable situation. Like GAF says it make take 60 years to average winning 19 of these 20 hands. But thats what makes poker so infuriating yet so challenging.