[jtw1]

SATURDAY
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LINGFIELD 12.55

2006	Direct Debit (9)	3	9-0	9/4	M L W Bell	Hayley Turner	76
2005	Avanti Avanti (12)	3	9-0	6/5F	R Hannon	Richard Hughes	76
2004	Grouville (4)	3	9-0	33/1	B J Meehan	Paul Eddery	68
2003	Ephesus (5)	3	9-0	6/1	J Noseda	Shane Kelly	68
2002	Scalado (1)	3	9-0	6/5F	R Charlton	Jimmy Fortune	73
2002	Yalla Lara (3)	3	8-9	11/10F	I A Balding	Martin Dwyer	67
2000	Kathakali (7)	3	9-0	5/4F	V Soane	Martin Dwyer	75
1999	Three Bay Trees (10)	3	8-9	7/1	M Johnston	Joe Fanning	65
1998	King's Colours (2)	3	9-0	7/4	J Noseda	G Carter	74
1997	Hint Of Victory (2)	3	8-9	EvensF	M L W Bell	G Faulkner

Only 1 debutant has been successful in 10 runnings of this 1m Maiden.
The odds range has been from FAV [4] to 7/1 [ ignoring 2004 result].
M L W BELL has had 2 runners in 10 years and those 2 have both won .

BLUE MONKEY is Bell's representative in this years renewal and is the selection as the odds and experience are in his favour.
SIR SANDICLIFF should also be considered [again on odds + experience]


WARWICK 3.30

2006	Eurotrek	10	10-9	6/1	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	154
2005	Baron Windrush	7	10-3	11/1	N A Twiston-Davies	Carl Llewellyn	156
2004	Southern Star	9	10-1	15/2	Miss H C Knight	G Lee	150
2002	The Last Fling	12	10-4	25/1	Mrs S J Smith	Warren Marston	140
2001	Browjoshy	8	10-13	12/1	M Pitman	Timmy Murphy	144
2000	Choisty	10	10-0	20/1	H E Haynes	P Flynn	135
1998	A N C Express	10	10-11	12/1	J S King	T Jenks	142

This 3m5f Grade 3 Chase stands out as a lightweights heaven with NO winners carrying over 10:13 and none being out of the Handicap.
Favs have a poor record with 0 wins in 7.
Winning odds have ranged from 6/1 up to 25/1.
6 out of 7 winners have been aged over 8 years old and over.
NONE of the previous victors had run in the WELSH NATIONAL .

Following those pointers leaves us with 3 to consider -
BARON WINDRUSH
HAUTCLAN
TOUCH CLOSER

HAUTCLAN is the selection as his winning form in FRANCE on Heavy going is a major plus.
One sticking point here is the fact that it's only in the last 3 season's that it's been a Grade 3 race but the stats seem to have followed the previous years patterns.
A couple of races that have some pointers rather than Trends are the
WARWICK 2.00 a Novice Chase only run 3 times previously where A KING has won Twice and 5 - 7y-olds have filled the first 2 places 5 times from 6.
KING'S representative is Il DUCE , 2nd fav in the RP forecast and a 7y-o.


KEMPTON 1.05 - Nov Chase , Surprisingly for this type of race the last 6 favs have been beaten and FOUR of them were ODDS ON.
Take a look at 2nd fav ROYAL SHAKESPERE + OFAREL D'AIRY [P. Nichols rep] He won this in 1999 with FLAGSHIP UBERALLES as a 5-y old.


FAVS TO AVOID
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WARWICK 3.30 0-7
LINGFIELD 3.35 0-6
KEMPTON 3.15 1-9
PUNCHESTOWN 1.25 0-5.

The last race is interesting as it's a GRADE 3 Juvenile Hurdle , a type of race where i would expect Favs to have a better record.