Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave488  I make the odds of them having a higher flush as 8/47 * 4/46 = 1.5% as there only 4 higher spades than your 9. |
A bit more than that. There are 47*46/2 = 1081 possible hands (divided by two
because each two-card hand could come in two possible orders).
Hands giving a flush: 8*7/2 =28
Lower flushes: 4*3/2=6.
So higher flushes: 28 - 6 = 22.
Probability of a higher flush = 22/1081 = 0.02 = 2%.
And the fact that he's stayed in this far increases the probability that he
has a higher flush quite a lot: he'd have folded lots of hands that didn't
make a higher flush, but wouldn't (at least after the flop) have folded a
hand that did make a higher flush.