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Old 14-11-2006, 20:22   #1 (permalink)
mcgin
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Join Date: 06 Nov 2005
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Default Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby

Okay this is going to be a paper trial for the time being. Basically along the same lines of what Datapunter is doing in his Soccer hot favourites system, but applied to Rugby Union. Its a paper trial cos I've no idea whether the bias exists in the rugby market cos I haven't been able to lay my hands on past odds information for Rugby so if anyone has it please do share!
It should in theory produce a better strike rate then the soccer selections, as the chances of a draw are much slimmer in Rugby and that tends to be what upsets the apple cart for the soccer selections.

Last week would have produced 1 (winning) selection Wasps @ 2/7 where most bookies had em at 2/9. Technically its after eventing , but I'm including it in the selections as I chose it before I decided to start posting the picks on here and this is really more for my records then for anyone elses That said, all future bets will be proofed here before the event.

I'll be keeping track of the bets in the spreadsheet below (tell me what sort of access you guys have to this, I'm hoping its read only ):
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pC1ufGPuFg_6m9NfIhGMiRw

Last edited by mcgin; 23-11-2006 at 19:21.
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