ksk1912: Thx for your reply. Don't get me wrong. My reason to ask was not to criticize your system but to understand it more deeply.
Now I know the
framework of your analysis.
What happens inside that framework?
For example: (the numbers are from your post)
2. Statistic investigation
Atletico Paranaense - Botafogo
|
| Home | UNDER | OVER | Away | UNDER | OVER |
| 12 Atletico Paranaense |
|
| 6 | 13 |
| 5 | 13 |
| 16 Botafogo |
|
| 9 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 |
So, in this game in question home under is 6 + 10 = 16 and home over is 13 + 9 = 22, or what? And if it is so, how "much" does this piece of information lead you thinking the game will go under? or over?
3- I look to the each other games result(how many time they play under/over)
12/08/2004 Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense
19/12/2004 Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Botafogo
29/05/2005 Botafogo 2-0 Atletico Paranaense
22/09/2005 Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Botafogo
29/04/2006 Botafogo 0-4 Atletico Paranaense
In this case there are four games out of five that have gone under and one that has gone over. What does this mean? Under I guess, but how "much" would this "promote" the under result? Do the results count (1-0 is "more" under than 1-1)? How much more? Is the result 1-1 being played 2004 "less" under then 2-0 played in 2005? or more? And - how "much" less or more?
After these two pieces of your analysis, is this game now under or over, and how "much" in respective direction?
4-Search to latest team news (İnjury or suspended player or Financial problem) all this infos can effect my decision.
If the home team has their lead scorer suspended, does this mean "more" under? And again how "much" more? What is the situation now? under or over? and how much more? What other similar situations are you considering in this category?
5-look to the past year statistic about under/over.
6-look to the present season statistic (how many time they play in home/away - under/over)
And how do these steps (and what specifically in them) in their turn effect the fact that this game is going to be under?
Ok, I stop here. You probably got my drift now? And understand what I am after? I want to now
how each step of your analysis works, what is
included in a certain step, what are the
reasons and how are they
measured, which gradually lead to the conclusion that this game in hand will go under? Or is it just so that you know (or guess) that these and these situations are such that the safest conclusion would be to assume under (or over)? These kind of "situations" would be valuable knowledge too as investigating them further would maybe lead to a specific, profitable model of under/over betting.
Thx for your patience, just want this one to be spick 'n span too.
(no dizz intended to our Spanish-American friends)