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slapdash · 09-06-2006, 14:23

This is based on my systems in the Systems & Strategy forum.

I'll post occasional EW Lucky 15s. You'll be able to see how my systems
gave the individual selections in my thread in Systems and Strategy. They're
only going to be occasional because I'm not going to force this ... I'll only
post when there are four really suitable selections.

In principle I think it's mad to place a bet including a 4-horse win accumulator
on horses at the kind of prices these will be. Let me stick my neck out ... I
will never have 4 winners. However, all (?) bookmakers who offer Lucky
15s pay double the odds when you have exactly one winner, and I estimate
that's going to be worth about 2 points to me on average on a 1 point EW
Lucky 15, so that will pay for the 4-fold accies. Actually, some independent
bookies offer 3x the odds, but I'll assume 2x here.

For simplicity, I'll always take SP.

I'll be using an aggressive percentage staking plan (this is where the
"suicide mission" part comes in). I'll start with a bank of 1000 points, and
use a unit stake of about 0.5% of my current bank, which makes 15% in
total. This is aggressive, but I have thought about the amount, it's not just
macho bravado. Anyway, staking 15% of your bank on a Lucky 15 seems
the numerologically correct thing to do, even if you think it's financially
suspect. I'll round the stake off to something convenient; I don't want to
get into silly fractions. I'll also keep a record of the level stakes yield ... for
wimps.

I'll stop when I get down below 1 point or up above a million.

OK, first one ...

At the Helm (3.00 Wolverhampton)
Hart of Gold (4.00 Wolverhampton)
Dream Champion (4.20 Catterick)
Gobi King (8.40 Haydock)

5 point EW Lucky 15
150 points staked.

09-06-2006, 14:23	#1 (permalink)
slapdash Junior Punter Join Date: 30 Oct 2004 Posts: 12,347 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 3	Lucky 15 Suicide Mission This is based on my systems in the Systems & Strategy forum. I'll post occasional EW Lucky 15s. You'll be able to see how my systems gave the individual selections in my thread in Systems and Strategy. They're only going to be occasional because I'm not going to force this ... I'll only post when there are four really suitable selections. In principle I think it's mad to place a bet including a 4-horse win accumulator on horses at the kind of prices these will be. Let me stick my neck out ... I will never have 4 winners. However, all (?) bookmakers who offer Lucky 15s pay double the odds when you have exactly one winner, and I estimate that's going to be worth about 2 points to me on average on a 1 point EW Lucky 15, so that will pay for the 4-fold accies. Actually, some independent bookies offer 3x the odds, but I'll assume 2x here. For simplicity, I'll always take SP. I'll be using an aggressive percentage staking plan (this is where the "suicide mission" part comes in). I'll start with a bank of 1000 points, and use a unit stake of about 0.5% of my current bank, which makes 15% in total. This is aggressive, but I have thought about the amount, it's not just macho bravado. Anyway, staking 15% of your bank on a Lucky 15 seems the numerologically correct thing to do, even if you think it's financially suspect. I'll round the stake off to something convenient; I don't want to get into silly fractions. I'll also keep a record of the level stakes yield ... for wimps. I'll stop when I get down below 1 point or up above a million. OK, first one ... At the Helm (3.00 Wolverhampton) Hart of Gold (4.00 Wolverhampton) Dream Champion (4.20 Catterick) Gobi King (8.40 Haydock) 5 point EW Lucky 15 150 points staked.