Bet 4 2.30 Pontefract
The fifth nursery handicap of the season and quite possibly the toughest to untangle. There are plenty of maiden formlines to work though, mainly concerned with Little Scotland, Diamond Laura and Asif. Although none of those three line up here, they have bumped into several of today's runners at various points and offer an opportunity to try look at lateral form lines.
I have concluded that Little Scotland is better than Diamond Laura and Asif. Given
King of Axium beat Little Scotland on his debut he may thus be better than Lady Lube Rye and Ice Cool Lady who have been put in their place by Diamond Laura. However, as the weights are framed differently in handicaps there is now the additional complication of working out who is best handicapped and whether these OR's can lead to reverses in the form on current terms. I do like King of Axium and think he is well drawn and can go well but I am not convinced he is the best handicapped horse in the race. Although his debut win suggests he could be better than a 78 rating, he has gone backwards a little since. He was blitzed by Fratellino at York in a race that few got into, and was then held at Yarmouth by Niran who, judging on his Newmarket win, may be around the 73 mark at present. I trust the trainer to continue his improvement so will have him as a saver, but the one that I think has the best chance off her mark is
Ice Cool Lady. Walter Swinburns's Verglas filly was 6th in a Windsor maiden on debut and that race has turned into a winner finding machine with the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th and 14th all finding races subsequently. She was most closely matched with the 5th who was rated 75 subsequently and has mixed it up with 80+ horses. She was also closely matched with the 7th, Lady Pattern, both in this race, and at Folkestone subsequently, who looks fairly useful judging by her Newbury demolition job last month. Lady Pattern was four lengths infront that day and I think she is better than a 72 rated handicapper, so at the same time I think a 68 rating is lenient for Swinburn's charge here.
Take It To The Max is drawn wide but the form of his third in a Haydock maiden reads well and he may go well off 75.
Ice Cool Lady - 12/1
Stan James, 0.3 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places), 0.15 pt win
King of Axum - 7/1
Stan James, 0.15 pt saver
Take It To The Max - 10/1
Paddypower, 0.1 pt saver