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Sandefjord - Odd Grenland

In the very tight first league in Norway, there is no doubt about one thing, everybody can beat everybody. There are four teams that you could say separate themself from the rest, Rosenborg and Molde on top, while Lyn and Bodø/Glimt holds the two bottom spots. Otherwise there is 10 pts. between 3rd and the 14th spot. The homeside has collected 18 pts so far, keeping the 9th place. A position that could be expected before the season started. Odd, on the other hand, keeps the 4th spot with 26 pts, a little above the predicted area for them.

Both these teams were promoters before this season, and have taken the level above pretty well. The main factor for it is the morale and attitude of the teams players, and of course the point that key players have stood up when needed. The situation for Sandefjord however has recently shown a major downtrend. They have now played 8 matches without a win, going 0-3-5. They are somewhat free-falling after the very good beginning of the season. That being said, they still are dangerous when playing at home (3-3-2). Even so the last two have been lost (Ålesund 1-2 & Vålerenga 0-2). Still, after two away matches in a row they seem to may have turned things around by playing good footy and being somewhat unlucky. The loss versus Start was unlucky (2-3) and drawing versus the strong homeside Strømsgodset (1-1) was a pretty strong result. For today clash, they have some missings though. Key midfielder Erik Mjelde is out suspended, while forward Samuel Isaksen, midfielder Samuel Camazzola while 1st goalie Espen Bugge Pettersen is doubtful because of sickness. Mjelde has been a bright light this season providing goals and assists from his position and will be missed. If goalie Pettersen is out, he will be majorly missed since he has played a very good season so far and been a key factor in nearly every match they have played. His possible replacement, Matthew Allen has nearly no experience from this level. The visitors has, as mentioned, done a great season so far. Coach Fagermo has implied a 4-3-3 formation in the squad that has worked out well. They have had the advantage of placing nearly the same eleven on the pitch every time, being able to keep injuries at bay. Which again speaks of consistency and stability. The only missing today is winger Jacob Sørensen who had to remove his appendix earlier this week. Winger Alex Valencia that has been out with a pulled thigh for a while is back in training, but this one may come too early for him though. Otherwise the same starters could be used as in the last one. Form-wise, they continue to play srong footy, having only one loss in the last 15 matches, going 6-6-2 in total. Away, 0-6-2 explains a lot. Even so, they don`t go out defensive-minded, it has just been like that. Struggling to get the final touch, deciding the matches in their favour, but also the oppsite way, saving points. That being said, in Odds last three matches they have played versus teams that you can compare with the level of Sandefjord (Lyn, Strømsgodset & Viking), and they have struggled. In two of those they needed a late goal to save the draw, which inclines some drop in form. A notion I have suspected will come sometime as they newly promoters has overperformed somewhat this season. Another point for me in this one is that Sandefjord has done pretty well versus teams playing 4-3-3 in the league. If you look away from the first H2H between these teams (round 2) they have not lost against teams that use that formation yet.

This one is really difficult to predict. The (probable) missings in the homeside weakens the belief in them. At the same time they have done well at home so far, looking away from the last two home matches, however the last two has been improving. Odd has struggled some of late, even if they have collected points on regular basis. For me, after some consideration, the value is on the homeside. Expect for a few teams, the home/away stat has been much more significant this season than the last one, and in this one, it could be the decisive factor again. However, a livebet could be more recommended. If Bugge Pettersen is out, the value could turn pretty much as I know the important role he has in the Sandefjord side.

Sandefjord, +0 2.20 @ibc 3/10