Ok peeps. The new bwoy is gunna give it his best shot.
The reasoning behind the method is as follows: Ratings mostly based on how the hoss/hosses have run in their last 3 races e.g Led, Midfield, Back of the field or did not finish are used as the back-bone to much of the system.
Results will be shown using 1 pt level stakes starting with a 400 point bank and using race codes running on turf only including jumps and flat. Bookmakers are not involved because we use longshots and must wait for non runners to be declared. Early prices are not used. Instead all profit and loss will be declared at
BETFAIR SP minus 5% commission. I can't be arsed to deduct commission per race as
betfair do so I'll deduct commission per winner which will hurt the profit but so what because prices will be much higher than bookies.
We need a large bank because we have losing runs up to 100 and average strike rate is under 10% and much lower on the flat. Expect to lose half of a 400 point bank at some point.
We bet at the off using the live shows from sportinglife to make sure our selections are 7/1 or more and 100/1 or below on the flat that will change to >=18/1 and <=100/1 . We use BFSP regardless of whether it was higher or lower than Bookie Sp. If the sportinglife live shows are not functioning correctly then we just aim at a BFSP of 8 or over.
For those who want to follow with small stakes: If there is more than 1 qualifier per race then we back each with one point.
The main aim is to see if I've backfitted my system to an unreasonable degree. Past results are very favourable and my target is 100 points profit per month on average or to put it into monetary terms at £50 a level throw we are looking for £5k per month or £60k pa.
It's time for the truth: I couldn't give a toss who the trainer or jockey is, what the form is, what the stable whispers are, how bad the ground is or any of that. This is purely mechanical and no emotion should be attached to winning or losing.
I shall endeavour to post everyday just before racing starts. There will be nothing on Sundays coz I can't be arsed. See you tha morra!
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Right, I 've been working on something new for 2010 and it's finally ready. The rules are very simple 1 point on each selection. I can't say how I've arrived at the final selections but I'm quietly confident that they are sustainable long term although I shall tweak where necessary as things progress.
Staying lucky as always! JB
