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Old 08-09-2008, 01:40   #20 (permalink)
guesswest
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Join Date: 25 Jun 2005
Location: Newcastle
Age: 29
Posts: 1,004
Default Re: How do good players play this ??

Haven't posted on here in ages but ran into this thread randomly googling something else so I'll throw my two cents in. I'd always push here. You can reasonably assume 12 outs. If someone has a better flush draw then they have it, but that's probabilistically unlikely enough I wouldn't give it much consideration with that much play in my stack. Your 12 outs over 2 cards gives you a 50% shot at taking this pot down, so I'd be shoving this even heads up as the pot as it stands makes that a lot of +EV. And you do have some amount of fold equity here, certainly over both opponents, but even both giving you this pot is not impossible - something like the 3k being a steal/cbet and the reraise a weak ace finding out where it is is.

There's value pushing this even heads up, but since you're against two opponents it's a better situation still, and with the money in the pot already you're getting a great price. You're probably going to have to pick up pots as a dog or without getting the right price at some point to win a tournament, so I'd never turn down value like this, especially as I assume taking this down would have made you chipleader with the bubble approaching, and put you in an excellent position to grind down shortstacks.
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