[jtw1]

Putting this up now as i'm off on hols come Friday and most of the main players are now known.


KING GEORGE Ascot Sat 12f Grp 1 3yo+
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10/10 came from the top 4 in the betting [ 13/2 ] and 6 were Fav.
9/10 had won at Group 1 level , other won Grp 2
9/10 had won over 12f
9/10 had won at least 4 races in its career
9/10 had ran that season , with 8 winning.
9/9 with a previous run had ran 2-4 times
8/10 ran at Grp 1 grade LTO , other 2 ran Grp 2.
8/10 with a rating were rated 120+

Age - 6 x 4yo , 2 x 3yo , 1 x 5yo , 1 x 6yo.


Summary
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Out of what looks like being the top 4/5 in the betting we can ignore the chances of ASK who has only won at Grp 3 level and is a 5yo.

Next to go is PAPAL BULL who has similarly not won a Grp 1 ,but it's Grp 2 would give it a chance if it had actually won a race this season and not been a 5yo.

DUKE OF MARMALADE is one of 3 Grp 1 winners in the field , is rated 126 and will start Fav , so far so good ; However it has not ran , never mind win over the 12f . With 2 wins over an extended 10f and his breeding looking doubtful i'm going to take it on.

At first glance i thought YOUMZAIN would be the obvious challenger with it's 2 Group 1 wins over the 12f and rated 125 were definate positives .
But the going might not be in it's favour if there is no significant rainfall up till Saturday.
Winning LTO at St Cloud on G/S , Channon has staed in the past that that type of ground was perfect for his charge and even with the course watering in readyness for the meeting i think the going will be on the fast side of good.
It has won twice on going officially described as G/F and Firm but one was a3 runner Cl 5 conditions stakes at Catterick where the 3rd was btn a distance [ race slow by over 6 secs ] and the other was a Listed event at Newmarket where there was only 5 runners and again the race time was slow by over 4 secs on G/f.
Also a 5yo which is a neg.

That leaves LUCARNO to cause a slight upset here .
The remaining Group 1 winner from the top of the betting it will have no problems with the ground [ won the Leger on G/F with race time 4 secs BELOW ave ] or the distance [ won twice over 12f ].
Theres no doubt it stole it's last race , Grp 2 on G/S , but i think that it can still improve from that run and reverse form with St Cloud running with YOUMZAIN
It is a 4yo , the age group that has won 6 of the last 8 runnings [ other 2 won by 3yo's of which there are no runners this season ]
Negatives - Only rated 116