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Old 18-07-2008, 21:53   #662 (permalink)
jtw1
God Punter
 
Join Date: 06 Nov 2004
Age: 47
Posts: 2,997
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Default Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

4.30 Newbury 10f Listed 3yo+
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No age group appears to have an advantage
8/9 were returned at 7/1 or under
9/9 were rated 102+
8/9 had ran that season with all 8 finishing 1st or 2nd at least once.
7/9 were 10f winners
7/9 had won at Listed/Group level
7/9 ran Listed/Grp grade TLO , 9/9 ran List/Grp in last or 2nd last outing.


4 look promising for 7/1 or under and they are -

BANKABLE , rated 113 and has won at Listed grade .
Ran in a Cl2 Handicap LTO [ Royal Hunt Cup at RA ] and has won twice this season.
Never won beyond 8f .

AL SHEMALI , rated 108 , won 36k Handicap in Dubai .
Ran at Listed class LTO and is a 10f winner.
Won once this season.

SPANISH MOON , rated 108 and has won a Listed event . Never won over 10f but has won at 12f.
Ran in a Grp 2 LTO and has won once this season.

PASSAGE OF TIME , rated 115 and has won at Grp 1+3 level.
Ran in a Grp 3 LTO and won at 10f .
Has not been placed 1st or 2nd this season.


Although PASSAGE OF TIME has by far and away the best form it has not shown it this season and came stone last of 14 in the Brigadier Gerard .
I can't select this one here , even though CECIL had 4 entries to choose from .

AL SHEMANI has only won a Class 5 Maiden and a 36k Handicap over in Dubai .

SPANISH MOON takes a step down in class here after a disappointing run in the Hardwicke at RA .He got warm at the stalls , had to have the blinds fitted to go in and then ran 'furiously early on ' and when the race began in earest it had nothing left.
Had impressed previously when winning FTO this season in a Listed event from LADY GLORIA who went on to win a GRP 3 at the Derby meeting

BANKABLE ran creditably LTO in the Hunt Cup when drawn 25 and the first 4 home were drawn 4 ,1 , 5 , 6.
It was reported as being excitable in the paddock , had to have the hood re-fitted at the start before going into the stalls and then was isolated in the center of the track after missing the break and the majority of the field went over to the stands rails.

BANKABLE will be hard to beat if settling and it manages to get the 10f , which it should on breeding , but i'm hoping that Ryan Moore can settle SPANISH MOON and with the Fav currently 6/4 with Betfair and the selection around 11/2 i believe the 'value' is with STOUTE'S horse.
The STOUTE/MOORE combination won this last season.

To be honest it's hard to separate those 2 and should really suggest splitting stakes on both to ensure a return .
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