We can kick the weekend off with a winner .
2.35 Newmarket 12f Listed 3yo+ --------------------------------------
Race was dead-heated for 1st in 2002 , hence 11 past winners studied.
10/11 were returned 12/1 or Under.
10/11 were 3 or 4 yo [ 5 apiece ]
10/11 ran at Group level LTO
10/11 had ran and won at least once that season
Only the last 8 winners had BHA ratings and all those were
98+ 6/11 ran in the Lancs Oaks LTO
Six 4/5yo's have carried a penalty and
3 have won.
J GOSDEN has won this
3 times.
AGE , ODDS and WINNERS this season leave us with -
DAR RE MI [3yo] rated 105 and ran in a Grp 2 LTO.
Trained by J GOSDEN .
ARTHURS GIRL [3yo] rated 102 + ran Group 2 LTO
FOLK OPERA [4yo] rated 107 + ran Group 2 LTO
ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 97 + ran Group 2 LTO
RONALDSAY [4yo] rated 102 + ran Listed LTO
So with ICON PROJECT only rated 97 and RONALDSAY running only at Listed grade LTO i'm taking them out of the equation.
There's nothing to separate DAR RE MI + ARTHURS GIRL , although the Trainer would have clinced it for the probable Fav .
FOLK OPERA gets the nod due to two other stats which are positives , those are -
1 - It ran in the LANCASHIRE OAKS last time out which no fewer than
6 previous winners have done
2 - It is a 4yo carrying a penalty from which there have been 6 other runners previously and
3 have been sucessful.