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billy the punter · 15-07-2008, 03:53

I'm not one for systems, but I've recently found myself laying a few horses that had previously won apprentice handicaps.

These are usually unpenalised winners that are fancied NTO.

The theory behind it is the form is questionable in apprentice races due to the jockey bias being stronger in these races than it is in other races.
Having a competent rider is more of a plus in these races. The gap between best and worst is huge sometimes, therefore the best horse(s) in the race win less often than they would in other race types.

These inexperienced riders also get the pace wrong quite a bit which also flatters/hinders many runners.

Obviously the form then has to be treated with caution and those that win apprentice races may've been flattered when doing so and may not go on as expected.

I will do my best to record as many as I can. The next one I can see is:

Wednesday
Kempton
6.20 Constant Cheers
Tally A - 1pt lay
Tally B - lay to lose 1pt

I'll run this thread as laying to level stakes and laying to lost level stakes.
5/1 or under only.

I'll do it to the end of the season and we'll see how it goes. It may turn out that each one needs to be judged on it's merits - as I have been doing.

15-07-2008, 03:53	#1 (permalink)
billy the punter Judge Join Date: 09 Mar 2008 Location: London Posts: 2,809	The Michelle Dewberry System I'm not one for systems, but I've recently found myself laying a few horses that had previously won apprentice handicaps. These are usually unpenalised winners that are fancied NTO. The theory behind it is the form is questionable in apprentice races due to the jockey bias being stronger in these races than it is in other races. Having a competent rider is more of a plus in these races. The gap between best and worst is huge sometimes, therefore the best horse(s) in the race win less often than they would in other race types. These inexperienced riders also get the pace wrong quite a bit which also flatters/hinders many runners. Obviously the form then has to be treated with caution and those that win apprentice races may've been flattered when doing so and may not go on as expected. I will do my best to record as many as I can. The next one I can see is: Wednesday Kempton 6.20 Constant Cheers Tally A - 1pt lay Tally B - lay to lose 1pt I'll run this thread as laying to level stakes and laying to lost level stakes. 5/1 or under only. I'll do it to the end of the season and we'll see how it goes. It may turn out that each one needs to be judged on it's merits - as I have been doing.